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Progressive Corp (PGR) — chart, structure and Closelooknet read

The Closelooknet read

Progressive is a United States insurer writing personal auto, motorcycle, RV and watercraft cover, plus homeowners and renters property insurance. It also insures commercial trucks and vans, offers small-business liability and property cover, and writes workers' compensation for transport firms.

Detail below: the desk's view, the earnings record, peers and the company snapshot; daily prices on the price-history tab. Research diary readings, not advice.

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Signals for this name

Every Closelooknet reading that exists for PGR, from the same nightly bakes the boards use. Research diary readings, not advice.

Versus its index AI Users — the name, its sleeve and the index over day, week and month

Versus its index

The name against its Closelooknet index and its own sleeve — equal-weight, nightly closes.

AI Users · as of 2026-11-09

DayWeekMonth3 months
PGR−0.1%−2.7%+4.6%+7.1%
Decision Intelligence & Risk+1.0%−1.6%−5.3%—
AI Users+0.7%+0.7%+5.7%—

Against the index: 3.4 pts behind on the week, 1.1 pts behind on the month; against its Decision Intelligence & Risk sleeve 9.9 pts ahead on the month.

Returns from the index workers’ nightly closes; equal-weight sleeves. A relative reading from the research diary, not advice.

Mentioned on Closelooknet 1 piece · newest: Report, “AI Users — Builders Up 66%, the Companies Using AI Flat” (2026-10-25)

Mentioned on Closelooknet

Where PGR appears in the diary — 1 piece, newest first. Every link is our own writing.

Long reads

Weather around the name 3 macro readings: Money Temperature, Factor regime, Sovereign pressure

The weather around this name

Macro readings that apply by membership — the regime, the factor tape, the sector cell, the funding backdrop.

  • Money Temperature Composite 49/100 · S&P 500 fund at 55, above its 200-day averageEight instruments scored on position, momentum, volume, volatility and fragility — the regime every name trades inside. Temperature lab → 2026-11-09
  • Factor regime Defensive rotation — low-vol leading, regime-change watchMomentum against low volatility (SPMO / SPLV): below its 50-day trend, 70th percentile of the window, -18.7% over 20 sessions. Factor regime → 2026-11-09
  • Sovereign pressure Index -1.91 · down 2.45 over 21 sessionsG7 long-end yields, 10s30s and the slope — the funding weather for every balance sheet on this site. Sovereign pressure → 2026-11-06
How it trades on rate days beta 0.12 to TLT · on the worst bond days it held up better than the market

How it trades on rate days

How PGR has moved when long-dated Treasury yields rise — measured against TLT, the 20+ year Treasury fund.

  • Beta to long bonds, 1 year 0.12 — shows only a loose link to bond moves for every 1% move in TLT (20+ year Treasuries), Progressive Corp moved 0.12% on average · correlation 0.04 · higher than 12% of US names
  • Beta, last 3 months 0.92 more rate-sensitive lately than over the year
  • On the 10 worst bond days −0.18% on average against −0.74% for the S&P 500 the 10 sessions of the past year in which TLT fell most, i.e. long yields rose most
  • Latest of those days −0.47% TLT −1.29% that day 2026-09-24

Daily total returns from the adjusted price series; a TLT down day is a day long yields rose. Beta = the average move of the name for a 1% move in TLT. Past sensitivity, not a forecast. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

Who it is priced against AI Users · Decision Intelligence & Risk · 5 names with week and year-to-date

Peer group

AI Users · Decision Intelligence & Risk

Compared against PGR on the nightly bakes; the Peers tab ranks the cohort on the Closelooknet scores where it exists.

Company snapshot — Progressive Corp

PGR in five paragraphs: what it makes and sells, where it sits in the Closelooknet stack, who it is priced against, why we track it, what we watch. Research diary, not advice.

What it does
Progressive is a United States insurer writing personal auto, motorcycle, RV and watercraft cover, plus homeowners and renters property insurance. It also insures commercial trucks and vans, offers small-business liability and property cover, and writes workers' compensation for transport firms. It sells through independent agents, online and by phone, and is based in Mayfield, Ohio.
Where it sits in the stack
Progressive sits in the AI Users index, under the Decision Intelligence & Risk section, where firms apply AI to underwriting, credit, fraud and other complex decisions inside their own operations. It disclosed in March 2025 that machine-vision models draft every auto claims photo estimate on their own, which it said roughly doubled productivity and meant around 200 fewer staff needed in 2024. In the same disclosures it said models now price and segment personal auto business covering about 75% of net premiums written, again acting without a person setting each rate.
Who it is priced against
Closelooknet groups it with other Decision Intelligence & Risk names — Nu Holdings, Affirm, Capital One, JPMorgan Chase and SoFi Technologies — and the market also compares it with Allstate.
Why Closelooknet tracks it
Progressive is an S&P 500 constituent and holds a seat in the AI Users index under Decision Intelligence & Risk. Its diary score has one module built so far, so the read is still forming. It appeared in the report 'AI Users — Builders Up 66%, the Companies Using AI Flat', published October 2026.
What the diary watches
The diary watches whether Progressive follows through on its March 2025 plan to extend machine-vision estimating into first-notice-of-loss triage, and whether that produces further staffing or speed gains it chooses to disclose.

Progressive Corp (PGR) trades on US exchanges.

Written from the company’s public profile and Closelooknet’s own readings, 2026-10-25. Descriptive, refreshed with the registry; corrections welcome via the imprint. closelook.net is an investment research diary — market structure, index membership and scores are our own readings, not investment advice. Related: PGR news on the tape · index compare · sector dispersion · scanner.

The Street on this name 4 analyst actions on the wire · latest: price target by UBS, 2026-10-19

The Street on this name

Analyst actions and the latest print for PGR from the Closelooknet wires — third-party opinions on the record, not our readings.

  • Price target UBS — target 238 from 234 Target raised to $238 from $234 (+9.3% to spot) 2026-10-19
  • Price target BMO Capital — target 216 from 221 Target cut to $216 from $221 (-1.1% to spot) 2026-10-15
  • Price target Roth Capital — target 245 from 235 Target raised to $245 from $235 (+12.8% to spot) 2026-08-20

4 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 1 upgrade, 3 target changes. Analyst wire → · Earnings wire →

Dividends and capital return trailing yield 5.98%, annual · buybacks 166 m USD in FY2025

Dividends and capital return

What PGR pays out and buys back — distributions read from the price series, money terms from the filings.

  • Trailing 12 months 13.60 USD per share · a 5.98% yield on the 2026-11-09 close 1 distribution, paid once a year 2026-11-09
  • Change on the year +186.0% against the prior twelve months prior twelve months 4.76 USD per share
  • Last distribution 13.60 USD per share as the price series records it, within days of the ex-date 2026-01-02
  • By calendar year 2024: 0.85 USD · 2025: 4.76 USD · 2026: 13.60 USD to date first distribution recorded in the three-year window: 2024-01-18
  • Dividends paid, FY2025 2.87 bn USD 73% of earnings
  • Buybacks, FY2025 166 m USD 0.1% of today's market value
  • Share count +0.1% in FY2025 132 m USD of stock-based compensation in the year
  • Capital returned 3.04 bn USD · 18% of free cash flow dividends and buybacks together, against the year’s free cash flow

Per-share amounts are derived from the adjusted price series in the listing currency, so dates sit within days of the ex-date; filing figures come from the fundamentals feed for the last reported fiscal year. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-11-10

Quick answers

What is Progressive Corp (PGR)?

Progressive Corp trades as PGR on the US exchange (United States) in the Closelooknet research universe, as of the registry build of 2026-11-10.

Is PGR in a Closelooknet index?

Not currently — Progressive Corp is tracked in the Closelooknet research universe but is not a constituent of a Closelooknet functional index as of 2026-11-10.

Where does PGR trade against its moving averages?

Progressive Corp trades 3.9% above its 50-day and 8.3% above its 200-day moving average (0.7% above its 20-day). As of 2026-11-09 — a technical state from the nightly Closelooknet bake, not advice. The Technical tab carries the full row.

How is PGR doing against its Closelooknet index?

Over the past month Progressive Corp is +4.6% against +5.7% for the AI Users — 1.1 points behind its index, as of 2026-11-09. Its Decision Intelligence & Risk sleeve is −5.3% over the same month. The “Versus its index” table on this page carries the day, the week and the month for the name, its sleeve and the index.

How does Progressive Corp compare with its peers?

Against its peer group (AI Users · Decision Intelligence & Risk), Progressive Corp (PGR) sits 5.6% below its 52-week high, 3.9% above its 50-day average; Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is 22.9% below, Nu Holdings Ltd (NU) is 36.6% below, Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) is 24.8% below, as of 2026-11-09. Put any of them next to PGR in the chart grid (2×1 or 2×2) and the page lays the companies side by side: performance, trend, valuation, margins and our money-flow reading.

How does Progressive Corp trade when bond yields rise?

Over the past year Progressive Corp had a beta of 0.12 to TLT, the long-dated Treasury fund — it shows only a loose link to bond moves, higher than 12% of US names. On the 10 sessions in which long bonds fell most it moved −0.18% on average, against −0.74% for the S&P 500. As of 2026-11-09; The "How it trades on rate days" block on this page carries the lines.

Where has Closelooknet written about Progressive Corp?

Progressive Corp appears in 1 Closelooknet piece as of 2026-11-10, most recently Report: AI Users — Builders Up 66%, the Companies Using AI Flat (2026-10-25). What Closelooknet said most recently: Progressive told investors in March 2025 that machine-vision models draft every photo damage estimate, which adjusters then check, and put the 2024 gain at about 200 staff it did not need to hire. (Report, 2026-10-25). The "Mentioned on Closelooknet" block on this page lists the long reads, the reference entries and the dailies that name it.

What does Progressive Corp do?

Progressive is a United States insurer writing personal auto, motorcycle, RV and watercraft cover, plus homeowners and renters property insurance. It also insures commercial trucks and vans, offers small-business liability and property cover, and writes workers' compensation for transport firms. It sells through independent agents, online and by phone, and is based in Mayfield, Ohio. Closelooknet groups it with other Decision Intelligence & Risk names — Nu Holdings, Affirm, Capital One, JPMorgan Chase and SoFi Technologies — and the market also compares it with Allstate. (Company snapshot of 2026-10-25.)

Where does Progressive Corp sit in the AI build-out?

Progressive sits in the AI Users index, under the Decision Intelligence & Risk section, where firms apply AI to underwriting, credit, fraud and other complex decisions inside their own operations. It disclosed in March 2025 that machine-vision models draft every auto claims photo estimate on their own, which it said roughly doubled productivity and meant around 200 fewer staff needed in 2024. In the same disclosures it said models now price and segment personal auto business covering about 75% of net premiums written, again acting without a person setting each rate. Progressive is an S&P 500 constituent and holds a seat in the AI Users index under Decision Intelligence & Risk. Its diary score has one module built so far, so the read is still forming. It appeared in the report 'AI Users — Builders Up 66%, the Companies Using AI Flat', published October 2026. (Company snapshot of 2026-10-25.)

Does Progressive Corp pay a dividend?

Progressive Corp has paid 13.60 USD per share over the last twelve months, paid once a year, a trailing yield of 5.98% on the 2026-11-09 close; the last distribution recorded in the price series was 13.60 USD on 2026-01-02. In fiscal 2025 the company paid 2.87 bn USD in dividends and bought back 166 m USD of its own shares, 18% of that year’s free cash flow. The share count rose 0.1% over the fiscal year. As of 2026-11-09; the "Dividends and capital return" block on this page carries the lines.

What has Wall Street done on Progressive Corp recently?

The most recent analyst action on Progressive Corp on the Closelooknet wire is a price target by UBS on 2026-10-19 (target 238 from 234). 4 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 1 upgrade, 3 target changes. Analyst actions are third-party opinions recorded by the wire, not Closelooknet readings. The “The Street on this name” block on this page lists the moves; the full feeds are the analyst wire and the earnings wire.

What does this page show?

A live price chart with SMA overlays and drawing tools for PGR, performance metrics, index-membership context and the Closelooknet structure read — an investment research diary view, not investment advice.

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Related in the Closelooknet universe

then Insurance - Property & Casualty. Scored names rank on their Closelooknet score; names without one rank on trend state — above or below their 50- and 200-day averages — never on a score they do not carry.