Chips · Stock report · NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA)
NVIDIA — beat 10 of 10 reports, yet fell 3%+ after six; now under its 200-day average
The Closelooknet read
NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) has beaten the earnings estimate at all 10 of its last reports on our Print Record (our log of how the stock moved after each earnings report), yet it fell more than 3% in the three sessions after each of six of them and rose more than 3% after only two. On average it moved 9.2% in either direction in those three sessions, and the last four reactions were all declines (-6%, -2.1%, -6.7% and -3.9%). The stock now sits at $202.06, under the average close of the last 200 sessions ($204.46) after the cross down on 2 November. What we watch: whether it closes back above $204.46 or stays under it into the next report.
Where NVIDIA stands among 86 chip stocks
Over one month NVIDIA fell 13.6%, which ranks 24th of the 86 stocks in our chip section. Four peers in the pack fell over the same month: AMD (AMD) lost 26.4%, Qualcomm (QCOM) 12.3%, Global Unichip (GUC) 9.4% and Broadcom (AVGO) 9.3%. Against its 52-week high, NVIDIA is 15.5% below the $239.24 close of 6 October. Global Unichip is 15.3% below its 5 October high, AMD 28.1% below its 6 October high, Broadcom 33.1% below its June high and Qualcomm 35.4% below its May high.
Our money-flow and quality readings
Our money-flow reading (a gauge of net buying pressure) stands at 26.4, down 1.5 over five sessions and 1.2 over 21 sessions. On our scores NVIDIA rates 65 of 100 overall. Quality (94), growth (88) and balance sheet (89) sit well above that, while valuation (40), cash quality (20), capital allocation (48) and momentum (60) fall below it. The Piotroski score, a check of financial health, is scored 4 of 9.
What the Print Record shows
Across 10 reports, NVIDIA beat on both earnings and revenue every time. The reaction in the three sessions after each report still fell more than 3% six times, rose more than 3% twice and stayed within 3% twice. Our own note on the history points to gross margin: it peaked at 78% in one quarter and has since settled at 75.0% and 74.9%. We watch that line at the next report.
Price trend and the Street
NVIDIA closed down 1.3% on 2 November, off 6.5% over five sessions, and is up 8.3% this year and down 0.4% over twelve months. It trades 8.8% below its 50-day average ($221.50) and 1.2% below its 200-day average ($204.46); its typical daily swing is about 2.2%. The analysts' average target is $339, which is 65.7% above the last close, with 60 buy, 16 hold and 3 sell ratings.
Closelooknet is a research diary. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.