AI Trade — Asia bounces, Kospi +3.3%; Nasdaq-100 holds its support line, Jakarta −10.8% on MSCI

The Morning 10

AI Trade — Asia bounces, Kospi +3.3%; Nasdaq-100 holds its support line, Jakarta −10.8% on MSCI

1. 1 Nasdaq-100 — QQQ holds its support line at 728.41 after a midday test lower
2. 2 Korea — Kospi rebounds 3.3% to about 5,740; Samsung +4.0%, SK Hynix +2.4%
3. 3 Indonesia — Jakarta −10.8%, worst day since 1998, after MSCI flags a downgrade
4. 4 Tokyo and the region — Nikkei +1.8%, Tokyo Electron +2.4%; Taiwan +0.3%, TSMC −0.8%
5. 5 Rotation — chip builders sold again, software bought: Lam −3.5%, Dell −5.7%; ServiceNow +6.2%
6. 6 CoreWeave — bonds yield near 15%, stock bounces 3.2% after Huang says no backstop needed
7. 7 Rates — 10-year eases to 5.09%, homebuilders +4.3%; a hike this month still at 34%
8. 8 Banks — Print Record windows close tonight: UnitedHealth +7.7% and Wells Fargo +2.6% from entry
9. 9 AI board — on the week, AI winners +3.0%, AI builders (Rubin) −11.4%
10. 10 Friday — options expiry, industrial production, regional banks; ASML and TSMC scored next week

The full Morning 10 →

The Midday 10

Tech — the whole complex sold: chip fund −2.1%, software −4.3%; Nasdaq −1.1% while the Dow is green

• 1 Chips — eighth losing day: SOXX −2.1% to $504.08, Micron −3.5%, AMD −3.4%, Intel −4.1%
• 2 Software — the users join the sell-off: IGV −4.3%, CrowdStrike −7.2%, Palo Alto −7.4%, Snowflake −7.2%
• 3 Our usage gauges sold hardest: Cloudflare −7.0%, Datadog −6.7%, DigitalOcean −9.1% — −24% on the week

All ten lines →

Daily Pulse — Rotation — Out of Chips, Into Pills and Soap

The S&P 500 is only 0.9% below its 6 October record, but the money has changed seats. Since then the health care fund rose 6.0% to a six-month high and consumer staples 6.0%, while technology lost 6.3% and chips 12.7%. Industrials look weak only because the AI build-out hides inside them: Vertiv, Caterpillar, Quanta, GE Vernova and Eaton fell 10–15%, while defence and rail rose.

The full Pulse →

On the tape

• Money Temperature · Regime uncertainty — 2 heating / 2 cooling
• Cross-asset day: VIX 20.0, DXY 101.78, 10Y 5.09% — mixed regime
• Euro-AI 50 · 1-month leaders — EVK.DE +21.34% / KGX.DE -18.82%
• Euro-AI 50 · Daily leaders — WKL.AS +8.56% / ATS.VI -11.94%
• HALO 100 · 1-month leaders — ONON +29.61% / RCAT -30.94%
• HALO 100 · 1-month sector leaders — MEDDEV +7.86% / SPACE -10.94%
• HALO 100 · Sector flow — FOOD +3.46% / SPACE -1.31%
• HALO 100 · Daily leaders — TOST +7.94% / ETL.PA -10.72%

The books that day

7 recorded trades: Reduced ASX (Hypergrowth) · Exited ASX (Hypergrowth) · Added BB (Hypergrowth) · Reduced NBIS (Hypergrowth) · Exited RKLB (Hypergrowth) · Added RKLB (Hypergrowth) · …. The trade log →