Kospi +3.3%, Jakarta −10.8%, QQQ Holds Support: Morning 10
AI Trade — Asia bounces, Kospi +3.3%; Nasdaq-100 holds its support line, Jakarta −10.8% on MSCI
QQQ closed at 728.41, a hair under Wednesday's 728.95, after a test lower at midday. The Dow gained 1.1% as money left chip makers for software, banks and homebuilders.
In this edition
The Morning 10 Fri, Oct 16, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET
The ten points
Asia bought back part of the chip sell-off this morning. The Kospi rose 3.3% to about 5,740, with Samsung Electronics up 4.0% and SK Hynix up 2.4%; the Nikkei gained 1.8%. One market went the other way: Jakarta fell 10.8%, its worst day since 1998 as reported, after MSCI said it may move Indonesia out of its emerging-market indexes.
In New York the support line held. The Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ dipped below it at midday and closed at 728.41, 0.1% lower and just under Wednesday's 728.95. Underneath, the money moved: chip-equipment makers Applied Materials (−3.8%) and Lam Research (−3.5%) fell again and Dell lost another 5.7%, while ServiceNow rose 6.2%, Salesforce 5.5% and the software fund IGV 2.0%. The Dow gained 1.1%, small caps 1.4%.
CoreWeave's bonds now yield close to 15%, but the stock closed 3.2% higher after Nvidia's Jensen Huang told Bloomberg it needs no backstop. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.09%. Nasdaq futures are up 0.1%; September industrial production comes at 13:15 UTC, and it is monthly options expiry.
- Nasdaq-100 — QQQ holds its support line at 728.41 after a midday test lower
- Korea — Kospi rebounds 3.3% to about 5,740; Samsung +4.0%, SK Hynix +2.4%
- Indonesia — Jakarta −10.8%, worst day since 1998, after MSCI flags a downgrade
- Tokyo and the region — Nikkei +1.8%, Tokyo Electron +2.4%; Taiwan +0.3%, TSMC −0.8%
- Rotation — chip builders sold again, software bought: Lam −3.5%, Dell −5.7%; ServiceNow +6.2%
- CoreWeave — bonds yield near 15%, stock bounces 3.2% after Huang says no backstop needed
- Rates — 10-year eases to 5.09%, homebuilders +4.3%; a hike this month still at 34%
- Banks — Print Record windows close tonight: UnitedHealth +7.7% and Wells Fargo +2.6% from entry
- AI board — on the week, AI winners +3.0%, AI builders (Rubin) −11.4%
- Friday — options expiry, industrial production, regional banks; ASML and TSMC scored next week
-
Nasdaq-100 — QQQ holds its support line at 728.41 after a midday test lower
StructureQQQ
- What
- The Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ closed Thursday at 728.41, down 0.1% and only 0.54 below Wednesday's close of 728.95, the level Thomas marked as a major support line. At midday it traded at 724.80. It is 4.1% below its record close of 759.66 (6 October) and 3.4% above the mid-September low of 704.54. The index level hid a split. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1% to 26,713.02, the S&P 500 0.3% to 7,744.06 and the Dow 1.1% (556 points) to 52,177.69. Small caps (IWM) gained 1.4%. Nasdaq futures are up 0.1% this morning.
- If
- QQQ closes back above Tuesday's 743.57 within the next few sessions
- Why
- a test that holds on a day when chip stocks fall again says buyers are still there; a close well under 724 would open the way to the September low
- Then
- the QQQ page carries the chart, the levels and the full read
-
Korea — Kospi rebounds 3.3% to about 5,740; Samsung +4.0%, SK Hynix +2.4%
Context- What
- Seoul won back part of Thursday's fall. The Kospi traded 3.3% higher at about 5,740 this morning, against Thursday's close of 5,554. Samsung Electronics rose 4.0% to 218,500 won and SK Hynix 2.4% to 1.29 million won. The two memory makers had lost about 10% and 11% during Thursday's session, two days after China's CXMT said it will sell denser server memory by year-end. A bounce of a few percent after a fall of that size is a pause, not a verdict.
- If
- SK Hynix holds its gain into next week rather than giving it back
- Why
- memory chips are the most crowded part of the AI hardware trade, and Korea is where the selling and the buying show up first
- Then
- Rubin 100 holds SK Hynix and Samsung in its memory layer
- ETF Dispersion Which themes move together and which have decoupled — dispersion across the ETF complex, nightly. See the dispersion →
-
Indonesia — Jakarta −10.8%, worst day since 1998, after MSCI flags a downgrade
ContextEIDO
- What
- The Jakarta Composite fell 10.8% to about 5,233 and trading was halted for 30 minutes after an 8% drop at the open, as reported by Reuters and Jakarta Globe. MSCI said it may reclassify Indonesia as a 'standalone' market — below frontier status — and drop it from its index products, citing doubts about how transparent share ownership is and alleged coordinated trading. A local broker, Mirae Asset Sekuritas, puts the possible outflow from passive funds at about $3 billion. The decision is not final: MSCI takes feedback until 30 April 2027 and decides by 30 June 2027. The US-listed Indonesia fund EIDO already fell 10.0% on Thursday; the rupiah weakened to about 18,030 per dollar.
- If
- FTSE Russell, which keeps Indonesia as an emerging market, holds that line
- Why
- index status decides how much passive money must own a market; a downgrade forces selling no matter what the companies earn
- Then
- the Sector Engine tracks emerging markets country by country
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