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The Trading Day · Tuesday, September 15, 2026

AI trade — sellers of compute sold, buyers bought: chips −5.6%, software +5%, SoftBank +7% in Tokyo

The market took one session to decide what a slower frontier is worth, and its answer was a split, not a sale. On the side that sells compute, the semiconductor ETF fell 5.6% to $497.40, through the $505 line and below Thursday’s $517.43, with Nvidia −3.4%, AMD −4.4%, Micron −5.3% and SanDisk −5.0%; the Rubin build-out index lost 5.3% with all eight layers red, and the interconnect, data-centre power and equipment groups fell 7% to 8.5%. On the side that buys compute, the software ETF rose 5.0% to $106.64, its best day of the year; Zscaler +16.5%, SentinelOne +14.5%, CrowdStrike +13.9%, Palo Alto +13.1%; Microsoft +2.0%, Alphabet +3.2%, Meta +2.7%. The S&P 500 closed $760.88, −0.4%, the Nasdaq-100 $709.18, −0.8%, the Dow −0.2%: the index barely moved because the two halves of the trade cancelled.

The Morning 10

AI trade — sellers of compute sold, buyers bought: chips −5.6%, software +5%, SoftBank +7% in Tokyo

  1. 1 The sort: chips −5.6% to $497.40 through the $505 line, software +5.0% to $106.64 on its best day of the year, security +13% to 17% — S&P 500 −0.4% to $760.88, Nasdaq-100 −0.8% to $709.18, Dow −0.2%, Russell −0.3%; volatility 17.1
  2. 2 Asia, the morning after: Kospi −1.2% to 6,604, SK Hynix −0.9%, Samsung −0.7%; TSMC unchanged at NT$2,380, Taiex −0.7%, MediaTek −2.0%, Alchip −6.4%; Nikkei −0.5% to 63,196, Advantest −4.0%, Tokyo Electron −1.2% — and SoftBank +7.2% after Monday’s −11.3%
  3. 3 Rates and oil into the Fed: the 10-year touched 5.00% on Monday, first since October 2023, and is 4.96% this morning; the 30-year 5.33%; Brent $107.34, +1.6% overnight, WTI $103.27; dollar 99.6; gold $4,338; Empire State −8.7 with new orders −19.6
  4. 4 The $505 line is gone: semiconductor ETF $497.40, below Thursday’s $517.43 and 6.4% under its 50-day at $531.52; memory and storage led on the way down again — Micron −5.3%, SanDisk −5.0%; Corning −13.7%, Teradyne −13.3%, Coherent −12.7%, MACOM −12.8% inside Rubin
  5. 5 Our indices on Monday’s closes: Rubin −5.3% to 1,859.75 with all eight layers red, US −7.0%, Europe −7.9%, Japan −0.5%; HALO flat at 1,019.69; AW40 +4.0% to 946.64 on its applications layer +5.8%; the agentic ecosystem +4.3% to 1,597.67 on security +11.9%; Euro-AI −2.1%, its chips −6.9%, its enterprise software +5.5%
  6. 6 Print record, the night before: Oracle $144.79, 5.3% under its $152.94 entry and below the $148.35 sold line; Adobe $265.60, +6.7% from $248.83 and above the $256.29 paid line — both scored at tonight’s close, the third session after their prints
  7. 7 Outside view: the weekend’s essay is being sorted into winners and losers rather than sold — Monday’s press ran ‘Investors Are Sorting the Winners and Losers From an AI Slowdown’ beside ‘Talk of AI Pause Slams Nvidia, AMD and Intel’; Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta rose while Nvidia fell
  8. 8 China, for the record: August factory output growth quickened while retail sales slowed and missed, and the investment slump deepened — CSI 300 −0.3%, Hang Seng −0.6%; Japan’s tax-cut outline sidesteps its funding, the yen 154.9
  9. 9 Cross-asset check: the Magnificent Seven fund $70.10, above its 69.5 line; volatility 17.1, up 8%; the equal-weight agentic winners +4.0% against the physical layer −5.3%, a nine-point gap between our two US layers in one day; futures −0.4% to −0.5%
  10. 10 The clock: the Fed’s two-day meeting begins today, a hike priced at about four in five; Oracle and Adobe scored at the close; Taiwan’s August revenues this week; retail sales 12:30 UTC Wednesday, the decision 18:00 UTC, the press conference 18:30; Bank of Japan Thursday and Friday; quarterly expiry Friday — and the levels: $757.83, $708.69, $517.43, $505 lost, 5.00%, 6,600

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