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Midday: 10-Year at 5.01%, Dow −0.9%, AI Sort Pauses

Rates — the 10-year hits 5.01%: Dow −0.9%, Russell −1.2%, the AI sort pauses, Oracle and Adobe hold their lines

Day two after the sort is the bond market’s day. The 10-year Treasury yield printed 5.008% this morning, its highest since October 2023, and sits at 4.99% at midday with the Fed’s two-day meeting under way and a quarter-point hike priced at about four in five. The S&P 500 ETF is down 0.5% at $757.13, a few cents under Thursday’s $757.83; the Nasdaq-100 fund is down 0.5% at $705.37, above the 704 shelf; the Dow fund is down 0.9%, the Russell 2000 fund 1.2%, the equal-weight S&P 0.4%. The AI trade that was cut in two on Monday is flat on both halves: the semiconductor ETF is up 0.3% at $498.65, still under the $505 line it lost yesterday, and the software ETF is unchanged at $106.62 after dipping to $105.17 at the open. Inside chips the equipment names are still being sold — Lam −2.3%, Applied Materials −1.2%, KLA −0.9%, Broadcom −1.4% — while AMD +2.0%, Arm +2.7% and Marvell +2.0% bounce. The security group keeps its bid — CrowdStrike +2.9%, SentinelOne +2.3%, Zscaler +1.8% — and the buyers of compute give some back: Alphabet −1.6%, Amazon −1.5%, Apple −1.0%, Microsoft −0.8%. Oracle is $143.90, below its $148.35 sold line; Adobe $263.04, above its $256.29 paid line — both are scored at tonight’s close. Brent is $107.68, above Thursday’s $107.63 settlement; the dollar 99.6, the yen 155; bitcoin is down 2.6% to $76,500; gold $4,328.

In this edition

SPY QQQ DIA IWM RSP SOXX SMH XLK

The Midday 10 Tue, Sep 15, 2026 ~60 seconds 12:30 ET

Monday belonged to the AI trade; Tuesday belongs to the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.00% during Monday’s session and came back; this morning it printed 5.008%, the highest since October 2023, and is 4.99% at midday, with the Federal Reserve’s meeting in its first day and a quarter-point hike priced at roughly four in five for tomorrow. Equities are doing what they do when the long end moves on a Fed day: the S&P 500 ETF is down 0.5% at $757.13, a few cents under Thursday’s $757.83 close; the Nasdaq-100 fund is down 0.5% at $705.37, above the 704 shelf and below Thursday’s $708.69; the Dow fund is down 0.9% and the Russell 2000 fund 1.2%, because the rate-sensitive names are the ones being sold. Volatility is 17.6, up 2.6%.

The sort of Monday — chips −5.6%, software +5% — has paused rather than reversed. The semiconductor ETF is up 0.3% at $498.65, still below the $505 line it lost yesterday and below Thursday’s $517.43; the software ETF is unchanged at $106.62 after an opening dip to $105.17. Inside chips the split we flagged yesterday as the one that leans toward a volume question is still there: the equipment names are sold again — Lam Research −2.3%, Applied Materials −1.2%, KLA −0.9% — and Broadcom is −1.4%, TSMC’s US line −1.0%, SanDisk −1.2%, while AMD +2.0%, Arm +2.7%, Marvell +2.0% and Nvidia +0.6% bounce from Monday’s lows. The security group keeps the bid Sunday’s Weekly said it would find — CrowdStrike +2.9%, SentinelOne +2.3%, Zscaler +1.8%, ServiceNow +1.9% — and the buyers of compute that were bought on Monday are giving some of it back: Alphabet −1.6%, Amazon −1.5%, Apple −1.0%, Microsoft −0.8%.

The print record has two names on the clock. Oracle is $143.90, down 0.9%, 5.9% under its $152.94 entry and below the $148.35 sold line; Adobe is $263.04, down 1.0%, 5.7% above its $248.83 entry and above the $256.29 paid line. Both score at tonight’s close, the third session after their prints. Around them: Brent $107.68, above Thursday’s $107.63 settlement, with the oil fund up 2.2%; gold $4,328, down 0.6%; the dollar index 99.6, the yen 155.07; bitcoin down 2.6% to $76,500 and ether down 3.7%. Line 11 is about what a 5% 10-year does to the two halves of the AI trade — and why the equipment names, not the index, are the number to watch at the close.

US midday, intraday quotes (delayed, ~11:58 ET); Asia closes and Europe near its close; oil, gold, rates and crypto live

  1. ETF board: a rates day — SPY −0.5% to $757.13 under Thursday’s $757.83, QQQ −0.5% to $705.37 above 704, DIA −0.9%, IWM −1.2%, equal-weight −0.4%; SOXX +0.3% to $498.65 under $505, SMH +0.1%, tech flat, software flat at $106.62; TLT −0.2%; VIX +2.6% to 17.6; memory ETF $54.88, under $58
  2. Rates: the 10-year prints 5.008% this morning, the highest since October 2023, and is 4.99% at midday; the 30-year 5.33%; a quarter-point hike priced at about four in five for Wednesday; dollar index 99.6, +0.2%; yen 155.07; high yield flat
  3. The sort, day two: chips flat, not recovering — SOXX +0.3% at $498.65 under $505; AMD +2.0% to $503.50, Arm +2.7%, Marvell +2.0%, Nvidia +0.6% to $212.27, ASML +1.1% — while the equipment names are sold again: Lam −2.3%, Applied Materials −1.2%, KLA −0.9%; Broadcom −1.4%, TSMC −1.0%, SanDisk −1.2%
  4. Security keeps the bid on day two: CrowdStrike +2.9% to $242.15, SentinelOne +2.3%, Zscaler +1.8% to $195.14, ServiceNow +1.9%, Okta +1.0%, Salesforce +0.7%, Cloudflare +0.7%, Fortinet +0.6%, Palo Alto +0.5% — the software ETF flat at $106.62 after $105.17 at the open
  5. The buyers of compute give some back: Alphabet −1.6% to $343.70, Amazon −1.5% to $249.68, Apple −1.0% to $329.63, Microsoft −0.8% to $501.45, Meta +0.3%; the Magnificent Seven fund $69.75, −0.6%, above its 69.5 line
  6. Print record at midday, scoring tonight: Oracle $143.90, −0.9%, 5.9% under its $152.94 entry and below the $148.35 sold line; Adobe $263.04, −1.0%, 5.7% above its $248.83 entry and above the $256.29 paid line
  7. Asia and Europe: Kospi 6,627, −0.9%, holding 6,600; Taiex −0.8%; Hang Seng −1.0%; Nifty −1.2%; Nikkei flat at 63,484 — Europe near its close: Stoxx 600 −0.4%, DAX −0.2% at 25,402, CAC −0.3%, FTSE −0.4%, Euro Stoxx 50 6,239
  8. The other prices: Brent $107.68, above Thursday’s $107.63 settlement, WTI $104.30, the oil fund +2.2%; gold $4,328, −0.6%; silver $63.73; dollar index 99.6, +0.2%; yen 155.07; bitcoin −2.6% to $76,500, ether −3.7%, the crypto index −3.6%
  9. Outside view: the wires have moved from the AI sort to the bond market — ‘Stocks Lower as 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Fresh High’ (WSJ), ‘Global selloff in stocks as bond market enters new era of risk’ (Fortune), ‘The Stock Market Could Be in for an Autumn Fall’ (Barron’s), ‘Energy Emerges as the Latest Market Shock’ (Seeking Alpha)
  10. What decides the close: SPY against $757.83, QQQ against 704 and $708.69, SOXX against $505 with the equipment names, the software ETF holding $106, the 10-year against 5.00%, Brent against $107.63, the memory ETF against $58, the Magnificent Seven fund against 69.5, the VIX against 20 — and Oracle against $148.35, Adobe against $256.29 at the bell

The ten lines

  1. 1

    BOARD ETF board: a rates day — SPY −0.5% to $757.13 under Thursday’s $757.83, QQQ −0.5% to $705.37 above 704, DIA −0.9%, IWM −1.2%, equal-weight −0.4%; SOXX +0.3% to $498.65 under $505, SMH +0.1%, tech flat, software flat at $106.62; TLT −0.2%; VIX +2.6% to 17.6; memory ETF $54.88, under $58

    SPYQQQDIAIWMRSPSOXXSMHXLKIGVTLTDRAM

    The board is red in the shape a rates day makes: the small caps and the Dow lead the decline, the two technology funds sit near flat. The S&P 500 ETF is at $757.13, down 0.5% and a few cents under Thursday’s $757.83 close, which is the first time since the sort began that it trades below that mark at midday; the Nasdaq-100 fund is at $705.37, down 0.5%, above the 704 shelf and below Thursday’s $708.69; the Dow fund is down 0.9% at $519.90; the Russell 2000 fund is down 1.2% at $284.45; the equal-weight S&P is down 0.4%. The semiconductor ETF is up 0.3% at $498.65 — a bounce, not a recovery, still under the $505 line it lost on Monday — the VanEck semiconductor fund is up 0.1%, the technology sector fund is flat at $184.24, and the software ETF is unchanged at $106.62 after opening at $105.17. The 20-year-plus Treasury fund is down 0.2%, high yield flat. The memory ETF is $54.88, up 0.4% and still below the $58 it broke yesterday.

  2. 2

    LEVEL Rates: the 10-year prints 5.008% this morning, the highest since October 2023, and is 4.99% at midday; the 30-year 5.33%; a quarter-point hike priced at about four in five for Wednesday; dollar index 99.6, +0.2%; yen 155.07; high yield flat

    TLTHYGUUP

    The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.00% on Monday and gave it back; this morning it went through — 5.008% at the high, the first print above five since October 2023 — and is 4.99% at midday. It is the number the wires are leading with, and it is the number that explains the shape of the equity board: the Dow and the Russell lead the decline because banks, builders and the rate-sensitive names are where a 5% 10-year is felt first. The dollar index is 99.6, up 0.2%, the yen 155.07 after Japan’s tax-cut outline arrived without its funding; the 30-year is 5.33%. High-yield credit is flat, which matters: a rates move without a credit move is a repricing of duration, not of solvency, and that is the difference this morning’s Pulse drew between a real-rates story and a credit story. The Federal Reserve’s meeting is in its first day; a quarter-point hike is priced at roughly four in five for tomorrow at 18:00 UTC, and the press conference at 18:30 is where the long end will decide whether 5% is a level or a range.

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  4. 3

    THREAD The sort, day two: chips flat, not recovering — SOXX +0.3% at $498.65 under $505; AMD +2.0% to $503.50, Arm +2.7%, Marvell +2.0%, Nvidia +0.6% to $212.27, ASML +1.1% — while the equipment names are sold again: Lam −2.3%, Applied Materials −1.2%, KLA −0.9%; Broadcom −1.4%, TSMC −1.0%, SanDisk −1.2%

    SOXXAMDARMMRVLNVDAASMLLRCXAMATKLACAVGOTSMSNDK

    Monday cut the AI trade in two; Tuesday is not putting it back together, and the more telling thing is what is happening inside the half that was sold. The semiconductor ETF is up 0.3% at $498.65, which after a 5.6% fall is a pause, and it is still under the $505 line we carried since August and under Thursday’s $517.43. The bounce is in the names that were sold hardest on the premium argument: AMD is up 2.0% at $503.50, Arm 2.7%, Marvell 2.0%, Astera Labs 0.6%, Nvidia 0.6% at $212.27, Micron 0.2%, and ASML is up 1.1% in New York. The names still being sold are the ones we said yesterday would decide whether the weekend was a premium story or a volume story: Lam Research −2.3%, Applied Materials −1.2%, KLA −0.9%, and with them Broadcom −1.4%, TSMC’s US line −1.0%, SanDisk −1.2%, CoreWeave −1.0%, Super Micro −0.9%. Equipment is bought a year ahead of the chips it makes. A second day of equipment sold while the design names bounce is the market saying it can live with a smaller premium but is not yet sure about the volume — and the Rubin index’s close, its factory layers against its component layers, is where that reads.

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C · line 11 · members

Today in line 11: what a 5% 10-year does to the two halves of Monday’s AI sort — why it marks the buyers of compute harder than the sellers on the day and why that is not the sort reversing; the equipment-versus-design split inside chips and the one close that settles whether the weekend was a premium story or a volume story; why flat high yield and falling gold say duration, not fear; what a first close under $757.83 would and would not change; and what we do with Oracle and Adobe at the bell.

The privileged, actionable read — what we do, and at which level — is in line 11, for members only.

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Further reading on Closelook

Ten lines on the US midday tape, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading day at 12:30 ET. See The Morning 10 and the Daily Pulse.