AI’s own leaders ask for a slowdown and the market takes them at their word: Kospi −3.3%, SK Hynix −6.7%, SoftBank −11%, Nasdaq futures −1.2%, oil back above $106 into a Fed hike week — and the hedge fund that blew up in July is buying calls on the same names again

The Morning 10

AI’s own leaders ask for a slowdown and the market takes them at their word: Kospi −3.3%, SK Hynix −6.7%, SoftBank −11%, Nasdaq futures −1.2%, oil back above $106 into a Fed hike week — and the hedge fund that blew up in July is buying calls on the same names again

1. 1 The weekend: Anthropic asks the industry to pace the frontier, OpenAI agrees and shelves a 2026 IPO, xAI endorses it — Nasdaq-100 futures −1.2% to 29,031, S&P contract −0.5%, Dow flat; Intel and AMD −4%, SanDisk −4.5%, Micron −3.9% in overnight trading
2. 2 Asia sells the compute layer: Kospi −3.3% to 6,679, SK Hynix −6.7%, Samsung −4.0%; SoftBank −11.3% in Tokyo, Kioxia −6.4%, Resonac −6.1%, SUMCO −3.6% — Nikkei only −0.7% to 63,532, Taiwan −0.7%, TSMC −1.2%, Hang Seng +0.4%
3. 3 Friday, for the record: first gain in five — S&P 500 +0.9% to $764.29, Nasdaq-100 +0.9% to $714.88, Dow +1.0%, Russell +0.4%; technology +1.3%, industrials +1.1% led, health care and utilities red; week −0.8% on the S&P, −2.4% on small caps, health care −3.6%; VIX 15.84, −11%
4. 4 The sort on Friday: chips bought back in the order they were sold — semiconductor ETF +1.9% to $527.07, Marvell +4.0%, Intel +2.6%, AMD +2.5%, Astera +2.4%, Nvidia flat — while memory and storage stayed sold, SanDisk −3.5%, Western Digital −3.0%; the software ETF +0.3%, its first green close in seven; and overnight takes the bounce back
5. 5 Oil and rates go the wrong way again: Brent $106.71, +2.0%, WTI $102.12 with Saudi Arabia’s Hormuz-bypass pipeline shut and Gulf states meeting Iran in Oman today; the 10-year 4.975% and the 5-year 4.79%, up 24 basis points on the week; the dollar 99.45, yen 154.24; gold $4,371, −0.9%, copper −1.2%
6. 6 Our indices on Friday’s closes: Rubin +0.8% to 1,962.86 with the factory layers up and the memory layers down — US constituents +3.1%, Japan −3.4%; HALO flat at 1,019.89 after a −3.5% week; AW40 +0.5%, −4.8% on the week; Agentic −0.3% with the security names sold again; Euro-AI +0.7%
7. 7 Outside view: Situational Awareness is back — options on AMD, Bloom Energy, CoreWeave, SK Hynix, SanDisk and the memory ETF, bought in the first ten days of September, after assets fell from more than $45 billion to about $10 billion in July; three of the six are down 4% to 7% overnight
8. 8 Print record: Oracle $150.28 on Friday, 1.7% under its $152.94 entry after giving back the whole after-hours jump; Adobe $252.23, 1.4% over $248.83 — both inside their windows, both scored at Tuesday’s close; a pacing weekend lands on the one software name whose beat was a compute story
9. 9 Cross-asset check: credit slipped all week — high-yield ETF −0.7%, investment-grade −1.1%; the Magnificent Seven fund $69.89, above the 69.5 weekly line it has held since August; the ex-tech Nasdaq fund $98.60, −2.9% on the week and negative on the year; the VIX at 15.84 into a Fed week, a pacing weekend and a war
10. 10 The clock: Gulf states meet Iran in Oman today; Empire State manufacturing 12:30 UTC; the Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, retail sales 12:30 UTC Wednesday, the decision 18:00 UTC with a hike about 82% priced; Oracle and Adobe scored Tuesday; Bank of Japan Thursday and Friday; quarterly options expiry Friday — and the levels: $757.83, $708.69, $517.43, $107.63, 5.00%, 6,650

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