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Midday: Chips −5%, Software +4.5%, 10-Year Touches 5%

AI trade — the pacing call splits tech: chips −5%, software +4.5%, security +12–15%, 10-year hits 5%

The S&P 500 is down 0.4% at midday, the Nasdaq-100 0.7%, the Dow flat — and inside that ordinary-looking tape the AI trade has been cut in two. The semiconductor ETF is down 5.2% at $499.81, through Thursday’s $517.43 and through the $505 line we have carried since August, with Astera −9.9%, Arm −8.9%, SK Hynix’s US line −7.3%, Lam −7.2%, Marvell −6.3%, SanDisk −6.3%, Micron −5.6%, AMD −4.8% and Nvidia −2.9%; the memory ETF is $55.05, below the $58 it held since July. The software ETF is up 4.5% at $106.07, its best day of the year, and the security names that Sunday’s Weekly said were being sold on price and bought on flow are up 12% to 15%: Zscaler +14.8%, SentinelOne +14.6%, CrowdStrike +14.7%, Palo Alto +12.1%, Okta +11.3%, Fortinet +7.9%, Cloudflare +6.6%. Adobe is up 4.4% at $263.33, above its $256.29 paid line; Oracle is down 4.0% at $143.86, below its $148.35 sold line — both score at tomorrow’s close. The 10-year touched 5.00% for the first time since October 2023 before easing to 4.95%; Brent is $107.06 after $108.33, above Thursday’s $107.63 intraday, with the Oman talks postponed; the Empire State survey printed −8.7 with new orders at −19.6, the weakest since April 2024. Microsoft +1.9%, Alphabet +2.0%, Meta +1.8%, Apple +1.0%: the buyers of compute are up on the day the sellers of compute are sold.

In this edition

SPY QQQ DIA IWM RSP SOXX SMH XLK

The Midday 10 Mon, Sep 14, 2026 ~60 seconds 12:30 ET

The index is doing very little at midday and the AI trade is doing a great deal. The S&P 500 ETF is at $761.69, down 0.4%; the Nasdaq-100 fund at $709.79, down 0.7%, back above the 704 shelf it opened below and still under Thursday’s $708.69; the Dow fund is flat at $525.46, the Russell 2000 fund down 0.2%, the equal-weight S&P unchanged. Under that surface the weekend’s call to pace the frontier has been priced as a sort, and the sort is the sharpest of the year: the semiconductor ETF is down 5.2% at $499.81, the software ETF up 4.5% at $106.07.

The test we set in this morning’s Pulse — chips below Thursday’s $517.43 with software above Friday’s $101.52 is a premium story, both down together is a market sale — has answered in the first form and then some. The components priced on a race are being sold: Astera Labs −9.9%, Arm −8.9%, SK Hynix’s US line −7.3%, Lam Research −7.2%, Marvell −6.3%, SanDisk −6.3%, Micron −5.6%, Super Micro −5.5%, CoreWeave −5.2%, Intel −5.0%, AMD −4.8% to $491, Broadcom −4.2%, Nvidia −2.9% to $211.96. The users of compute are being bought: Microsoft +1.9%, Alphabet +2.0%, Meta +1.8%, Adobe +4.4%, and the security names that Sunday’s Weekly said were building flow while sold on price are up 12% to 15% in a single session.

The other two prices did not take the morning off. The 10-year yield touched 5.00% for the first time since October 2023 before easing to 4.95%, with a quarter-point hike on Wednesday now priced near 90%; Brent traded to $108.33, above Thursday’s $107.63 settlement, after Oman postponed today’s Gulf–Iran meeting on the Strait, and is $107.06 now; the Empire State survey printed −8.7 with new orders at −19.6. And in the print record, Oracle is below its sold line and Adobe above its paid line with one session to go.

US midday, intraday quotes (delayed, ~11:55 ET); Asia and Europe closes; oil, gold and rates live

  1. ETF board: index flat, AI trade split — SPY −0.4%, QQQ −0.7% back above 704, DIA flat, IWM −0.2%, equal-weight flat; SOXX −5.2% to $499.81 through $517.43 and $505, SMH −4.4%, tech −1.4%; software +4.5% to $106.07; energy −0.2% with oil +2.4%; TLT +0.4%; VIX +6% to 16.9; memory ETF −6.5% to $55.05, below $58
  2. Security names +12% to +15% on the pacing weekend: Zscaler +14.8%, SentinelOne +14.6%, CrowdStrike +14.7%, Palo Alto +12.1%, Okta +11.3%, Fortinet +7.9%, Cloudflare +6.6% — the thesis of Sunday’s Weekly, paid in one session
  3. The components priced for a race: Astera −9.9%, Arm −8.9%, SK Hynix −7.3%, Lam −7.2%, Marvell −6.3%, SanDisk −6.3%, Bloom −6.4%, Micron −5.6%, Super Micro −5.5%, CoreWeave −5.2%, Intel −5.0%, AMD −4.8% to $491, Broadcom −4.2%, Western Digital −4.0%, Nvidia −2.9% to $211.96, TSMC −2.9% — the six Situational Awareness names down 5% to 7%
  4. Print record at midday: Oracle −4.0% at $143.86, below its $148.35 sold line from $152.94; Adobe +4.4% at $263.33, above its $256.29 paid line from $248.83 — both score at Tuesday’s close; software beats bought, capacity beats sold
  5. Rates: the 10-year touches 5.00% for the first time since October 2023, now 4.95%; 30-year 5.33%; 2-year 4.67%; a hike Wednesday priced near 90% and Goldman moves to a hike call — the long end then bid, TLT +0.4%, IEF +0.2%; high-yield ETF flat
  6. Oil: Brent $107.06, +2.3%, after $108.33 — above Thursday’s $107.63 for the first time — with the Oman meeting on the Strait postponed indefinitely; WTI $102.48; European gas +3.8%; energy stocks −0.2% anyway, a third opposite-sign day in four
  7. The buyers of compute are up on the day its sellers are sold: Microsoft +1.9% at $504.85, Alphabet +2.0% at $345.22, Meta +1.8% at $659.52, Apple +1.0% at $335.47, Palantir +2.6%; Amazon −1.1% the exception; the Magnificent Seven fund above its 69.5 line at $70.14
  8. Asia closed on the weekend, Europe on the US open: Kospi 6,684, −3.3%, SK Hynix −6.3%, Samsung −4.0%, SoftBank −11.3% in Tokyo with its founder’s fortune down $8 billion; Nikkei −0.8%, Taiwan −0.7%; Euro Stoxx 50 −1.0%, DAX −0.5%, CAC −0.8%, FTSE +0.4%
  9. Empire State −8.7 in September, the first negative reading since June; new orders −19.6 and shipments −17.3, both the weakest since April 2024 — the first data of a Fed week says the real economy is slowing into a hike
  10. What decides the close: SOXX against $505 and $517.43, the software ETF holding +4%, QQQ against 704 and $708.69, SPY $757.83, Oracle against $148.35 and Adobe $256.29, the 10-year against 5.00%, Brent against $107.63, the memory ETF against $58, the VIX against 20

The ten lines

  1. 1

    BOARD ETF board: index flat, AI trade split — SPY −0.4%, QQQ −0.7% back above 704, DIA flat, IWM −0.2%, equal-weight flat; SOXX −5.2% to $499.81 through $517.43 and $505, SMH −4.4%, tech −1.4%; software +4.5% to $106.07; energy −0.2% with oil +2.4%; TLT +0.4%; VIX +6% to 16.9; memory ETF −6.5% to $55.05, below $58

    SPYQQQDIAIWMRSPSOXXSMHXLKIGVXLETLTDRAM

    The board reads like a quiet Monday until the two technology funds. The S&P 500 ETF is at $761.69, down 0.4% and above Thursday’s $757.83; the Nasdaq-100 fund at $709.79, down 0.7%, above the 704 shelf it opened under and below Thursday’s $708.69; the Dow fund flat at $525.46; the Russell 2000 fund down 0.2% at $288.52; the equal-weight S&P unchanged at $215.12. The iShares semiconductor ETF is down 5.2% at $499.81 — through Thursday’s $517.43, through the $505 line we have carried since August, and 6% under its 50-day average at $531.52 — and the VanEck fund is down 4.4% at $543.78; the technology sector fund is down 1.4%. The software ETF is up 4.5% at $106.07, its largest gain of the year, after seven red sessions in eight. The energy fund is down 0.2% at $65.00 with the oil fund up 2.4%: a third day in four on which the sector and the barrel have opposite signs. The 20-year-plus Treasury fund is up 0.4% at $81.22 after the 10-year touched 5%; the 7-to-10-year fund +0.2%. The VIX is 16.86, up 6%. The memory ETF is $55.05, down 6.5% and below the $58 it had held through every test since July. The Magnificent Seven fund is up 0.4% at $70.14, above the 69.5 weekly line.

  2. 2

    UP Security names +12% to +15% on the pacing weekend: Zscaler +14.8%, SentinelOne +14.6%, CrowdStrike +14.7%, Palo Alto +12.1%, Okta +11.3%, Fortinet +7.9%, Cloudflare +6.6% — the thesis of Sunday’s Weekly, paid in one session

    ZSSCRWDPANWOKTAFTNTNETIGV

    Sunday’s Weekly said ten cybersecurity stocks had been sold for a month on clean quarters while every flow reading strengthened, and that frontier models would need a security layer whoever paced them. Monday paid it: Zscaler is up 14.8% at $188.94, SentinelOne 14.6% at $22.63, CrowdStrike 14.7% at $237.09, Palo Alto 12.1% at $370.55, Okta 11.3% at $185.38, Fortinet 7.9% at $168.42, Cloudflare 6.6% at $326.82. The trigger is the same weekend that sold the chips: CrowdStrike’s chief executive answered the pacing essay by saying the industry should make AI progress secure rather than slower, its Fal.Con conference last week shipped products aimed at securing AI agents and their identities, and three brokers raised targets this morning. Third-party evaluators with permanent access inside every frontier lab, which is what the labs committed to, is a procurement statement for the security vendors. We hold the group as the Agentic index’s security sleeve, which sold for three weeks; on Friday it was the index’s weakest sector, on Monday it is the strongest group in the market.

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  4. 3

    DOWN The components priced for a race: Astera −9.9%, Arm −8.9%, SK Hynix −7.3%, Lam −7.2%, Marvell −6.3%, SanDisk −6.3%, Bloom −6.4%, Micron −5.6%, Super Micro −5.5%, CoreWeave −5.2%, Intel −5.0%, AMD −4.8% to $491, Broadcom −4.2%, Western Digital −4.0%, Nvidia −2.9% to $211.96, TSMC −2.9% — the six Situational Awareness names down 5% to 7%

    ALABARMSKHYLRCXMRVLSNDKBEMUSMCICRWVINTCAMDAVGOWDCNVDATSM

    The chip sale has an order and it is not Friday’s order reversed. Friday bought back the names sold hardest into the data; Monday is selling the names priced most on scarcity, and it has widened from memory to equipment in New York in a way it did not in Tokyo. Astera Labs is down 9.9% at $262.44, Arm 8.9% at $241.15, Lam Research 7.2% at $276.85 — the equipment and interconnect names that Asia left alone overnight — alongside SK Hynix’s US line −7.3% at $176.13, Marvell −6.3% at $221.14, SanDisk −6.3% at $1,530, Micron −5.6% at $920.57, Western Digital −4.0%. The compute renters and the power are in it too: CoreWeave −5.2% at $84.33, Super Micro −5.5%, Bloom Energy −6.4% at $257.21. Intel is down 5.0% at $97.80, AMD 4.8% at $491.15 — below $500 — Broadcom 4.2% at $346.78, Nvidia 2.9% at $211.96, TSMC 2.9%. The six names on which Situational Awareness bought calls last week are all down between 4.8% and 7.3% at midday, with the memory ETF, the sixth, down 6.5%. On our three pairs from this morning: chips below Thursday with software above Friday says premium, not volume; the memory ETF below $58 says the floor of the memory economy has broken on the first test; and equipment joining memory in the sale — Lam, Astera, Arm — is the one reading that leans the other way, because equipment is bought a year ahead of the chips it makes. The Rubin index’s factory sectors at the close, against its memory sectors, decide which of the two it was.

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C · line 11 · members

Today in line 11: why the sharpest sort of the year — chips −5%, software +4.5%, security +12% to +15% — is the pacing call priced correctly and not a panic; what it means that Sunday’s Weekly thesis was paid on Monday; the one reading that leans the other way, and why the equipment names are the ones to watch at the close; what Oracle below its sold line and Adobe above its paid line say together; where the six Situational Awareness names stand three sessions after the calls; and what we do with a memory ETF below $58 and a chip ETF below $505 — the levels, the frame, and the month.

The privileged, actionable read — what we do, and at which level — is in line 11, for members only.

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Further reading on Closelook

Ten lines on the US midday tape, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading day at 12:30 ET. See The Morning 10 and the Daily Pulse.