Two Raises, One Rule

The read for the morning after the verdict — companion to today's Morning 10 and to the study we published this morning on Samsung as the build-out's breadth position, The Breadth Discount.

The dichotomy the week was waiting for

Microsoft reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $90.0 billion against an $87.6 billion bar and rose about 8% after hours. Meta grew revenue 28% to $60.8 billion — also a beat — and was sold: earnings per share of $6.18 under a $7.13 bar, operating margin down from 43% to 31%, and the 2026 capex floor lifted to $130–145 billion. Here is the part that matters: both companies told the market they are spending more. The week's question — raised capex, punished or paid — assumed the answer would split on the direction of the spending line. It split on something finer. The market is no longer judging AI capex by its size. It is asking whether the spending is demand-pulled or strategy-pushed.