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Kospi Swings 7% on AMD and Midterms; Nasdaq Futures Recover

AI Trade — Kospi Swings 7% on AMD and the Midterms, Closes Green; Nasdaq Futures Recover

Asia, the market where the AI trade shows first, took both of the night's stories in one session: the Kospi opened 3.2% higher on AMD's report, fell 4.0% below Tuesday's close as the US election results came in and closed up 0.6%, with SK Hynix swinging from +5.6% to −6.8%. Nasdaq-100 futures fell as much as 2.4% on projections that Democrats will control Congress, then recovered to −0.3%; AMD guided the December quarter to about $17 billion and traded 5% higher after hours. Europe opens at 08:00 UTC after Novo Nordisk raised its outlook. Gold is back above 4,000.

In this edition

AMD ASML ASX EWY EWT SAP ET TLT

The Morning 10 Wed, Nov 4, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

The ten points

Asia is where the AI trade shows first each morning, and this morning it took both of the night's stories in one session. Korea's Kospi opened 3.2% higher after AMD's report, fell as much as 4.0% below Tuesday's close by 03:45 UTC as the US election results came in, and closed up 0.62%. SK Hynix went from +5.6% to −6.8% and closed flat; Samsung Electronics from +3.9% to −5.2% and closed down 0.7%; TSMC fell as much as 2.6% and closed down 1.5%; in Tokyo, Advantest and SoftBank Group fell as much as 10% and closed down about 3%. Taiwan's index fell as much as 3.4% and closed down 0.83%, and Japan's Nikkei, back from a holiday, fell as much as 4.8% and closed down 1.42%. Shenzhen rose 4.0%.

In the US, Nasdaq-100 futures fell as much as 2.4% to 27,615.75 around 03:00 UTC after CBS News and NBC News projected that Democrats will take control of both the House and the Senate in January, and were down only 0.34% by 06:55 UTC. AMD reported revenue of $13.38 billion, up 45%, guided the December quarter to about $17 billion and traded 5.0% above Tuesday's close after hours. Treasury yields fell overnight and gold went back above 4,000.

Europe opens at 08:00 UTC. On Tuesday the STOXX 600 fell 0.58% and ASML 1.6%, while the chip-equipment makers BESI and ASM International and the power-grid suppliers ABB, Prysmian and Nexans rose. This morning Novo Nordisk raised its full-year outlook on Wegovy sales and said its finance chief will leave.

  1. AI Trade in Asia — Kospi swings 7% and closes green; Taiwan and Japan cut their losses
  2. Asia's AI Bellwethers — SK Hynix swings 12 points; Advantest and SoftBank fall 10% before recovering
  3. Europe's AI Infrastructure — ASML −1.6% on Tuesday, grid suppliers up; Novo raises its outlook
  4. Midterms — Nasdaq futures fall 2.4% overnight, then recover to −0.3%
  5. Bonds, Gold and Bitcoin — yields fall overnight, gold back above 4,000; TLT under 81.50
  6. Tuesday in Brief — S&P 500 +0.4%, the average stock −0.3%; tech +1.3%, staples −2.1%
  7. AI Indices — Rubin +1.6% back over its line, Ecosystem +0.7%, HALO +0.5%
  8. AMD — revenue $13.4B, December quarter guided to $17B; shares +5.0% after hours
  9. Earnings Grades — Amazon flat by 41 cents, Twilio and Intel sold
  10. Today — ADP jobs 13:15 UTC, services survey 15:00 UTC, Qualcomm, Arm and AppLovin report

  1. AI Trade in Asia — Kospi swings 7% and closes green; Taiwan and Japan cut their losses

    Structure
    What
    Asia traded the night's two stories one after the other. Korea's Kospi opened at 5,786.13 and reached 5,828.13 in the first minutes, 3.2% above Tuesday's close of 5,648.79, after AMD's report. As the election results pushed US futures down, it fell to 5,421.72 by 03:45 UTC, 4.0% below Tuesday's close and 7.0% below the morning high, then recovered to close up 0.62% at 5,683.80. Taiwan's index fell as much as 3.4% to 41,855.82 and closed down 0.83% at 42,948.91. Japan's Nikkei, trading for the first time since Monday because of Tuesday's holiday, fell as much as 4.8% to 60,030.10 and closed down 1.42% at 62,188.63. China was the strongest market in the region: Shanghai rose 1.86% to 3,675.15 and Shenzhen 4.00% to 11,312.45. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 1.35% at 23,844.70 in the afternoon. India's Nifty 50 was flat at 23,800.30 in morning trade, and Australia's ASX 200 fell 0.59% to 8,834.50. In New York on Tuesday, the Korea fund EWY rose 2.27% to 155.06 and the Taiwan fund EWT fell 2.37% to 98.27.
    If
    Kospi and Taiwan both close higher on Thursday, after a full US session has priced AMD's report.
    Why
    The lows came within an hour of the low in Nasdaq futures at about 03:00 UTC, and the recovery followed the futures back up. Asia's AI markets are trading as part of the same global AI trade as the US, hour by hour, rather than on their own news. A seven-point swing in the Kospi in one session is a sign of how nervous that trade is, even on a day that ends higher.
    Then
    Watch Taiwan and Korea at Thursday's open: a second calm session after AMD would show Asia's chip markets have stopped selling on every AI headline.

  2. Asia's AI Bellwethers — SK Hynix swings 12 points; Advantest and SoftBank fall 10% before recovering

    Structure
    What
    SK Hynix opened at 1,476,000 won, 5.6% above Tuesday's close, fell to 1,303,000 (−6.8%) and closed flat at 1,396,000. Samsung Electronics ranged from 228,000 won (+3.9%) to 208,000 (−5.2%) and closed down 0.7% at 218,000. TSMC fell as much as 2.6% to 2,235 Taiwan dollars and closed down 1.5% at 2,260; MediaTek rose 1.1% to 3,715 after Tuesday's 7.4% fall. In Tokyo, catching up with Tuesday after the holiday, Advantest fell as much as 10.0% to 32,210 yen and closed down 3.4% at 34,570; Tokyo Electron fell as much as 8.5% to 9,156 and closed down 3.4% at 9,663; SoftBank Group fell as much as 10.0% to 3,967 and closed down 3.2% at 4,269, all against Monday's closes. In Hong Kong, Tencent rose 1.1% to 401.60 Hong Kong dollars.
    If
    SK Hynix closes back above 1,400,000 won and Advantest above 35,000 yen on Thursday.
    Why
    The bellwethers took the full ride: up on AMD, down on the election, and most of the way back by the close. Japan's AI names fell the most because they were also pricing Tuesday's chip sell-off, which they missed on the holiday; a 10% intraday fall in Advantest and SoftBank that ends at −3% is a market that is still buying the dips, but nervously.
    Then
    If Advantest and Tokyo Electron recover on Thursday, today's fall was a holiday catch-up; if they fall again, Japan is joining Korea and Taiwan's sell-off late.
  3. ETF Dispersion Which themes move together and which have decoupled — dispersion across the ETF complex, nightly. See the dispersion →

  4. Europe's AI Infrastructure — ASML −1.6% on Tuesday, grid suppliers up; Novo raises its outlook

    Structure
    What
    Europe opens at 08:00 UTC. On Tuesday the STOXX 600 fell 0.58% to 645.66, the DAX 0.45% to 25,864.62 and the FTSE 100 1.15% to 10,638.43. Among the European companies that supply the AI build-out, ASML fell 1.6% to 1,385.00 euros and SAP 1.8%, while the chip-equipment makers BESI (+1.7% to 156.10) and ASM International (+0.3% to 720.00) and the chip maker Infineon (+0.8% to 52.40) rose. The power and grid suppliers were mixed: ABB rose 1.6%, Nexans 0.9% and Prysmian 0.8%, while Schneider Electric (−0.3%), Siemens (−0.2%) and Siemens Energy (−0.2%) slipped. This morning Novo Nordisk reported third-quarter profit above forecasts and raised its full-year outlook on Wegovy sales, and said finance chief Karsten Munk Knudsen will leave the company, according to news reports. Continental and Fresenius also raised their outlooks.
    If
    ASML and BESI both trade higher at the open, after AMD's report and Asia's recovery.
    Why
    Europe has no big AI chip designer, so its share of the AI trade runs through the equipment makers that build the chip factories and the grid suppliers that power the data centers. Those names moved less than Korea and Taiwan on Tuesday, which makes Europe's open the first test of whether AMD's outlook reaches the suppliers or stays with the chip makers.
    Then
    Novo Nordisk is also on our earnings record this week; its window is set from the first close after the report.

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C · point 11 · members

Today in line 11: Asia traded AMD's report and the US election in one session, and the Kospi swung 7%. Which story matters more after the open, what the Rubin index line says, and the three tests for the rest of the week.

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