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Brazil +13% on Election, US 10-Year at 5.35%: Midday 10

Brazil — stocks jump 13% after Bolsonaro leads round one; US 10-year hits 5.35%, stocks rise anyway

Brazil's market surged after Flávio Bolsonaro edged ahead of President Lula in the first round: the Brazil fund EWZ is up 13.3%, Bradesco 20%. In the US, the 10-year yield climbed to 5.35% despite Friday's weak jobs data and a softer services survey, yet the S&P 500 is up 0.6% and the average stock keeps pace.

In this edition

EWZ BBD ABEV TLT SPY QQQ DIA IWM

The Midday 10 Mon, Oct 5, 2026 ~60 seconds 13:45 ET

Two stories run against each other at midday. The first is Brazil: in Sunday's first round, according to news reports, Flávio Bolsonaro took about 47% of the vote and President Lula about 45%, a better result for the challenger than the polls had shown. Investors bought Brazil hard. The Brazil fund EWZ is up 13.3%, Bradesco's US shares 20%, Ambev 9.8%.

The second is the US bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.35%, above its 1 October peak, even though Friday's jobs report was weak and this morning's services survey came in below expectations at 54.9. The long-bond fund TLT touched its lowest level in a year.

Stocks are ignoring it for now. The S&P 500 fund is up 0.59%, the Nasdaq-100 fund 0.68%, and the equal-weight fund keeps pace at +0.53%. Only real estate is lower. Asia's chip rally did not carry over: TSMC's US shares are up 2.7%, but the chip funds are flat to lower and software leads tech instead.

US intraday quotes at about 13:40 ET (17:40 UTC); moves are measured against Friday's closes, intraday lows are the session's 5-minute prints since the open. Intraday prints are not closes. Brazil election result as reported by news agencies; ISM services from the ISM release of 10:00 ET.

  1. Brazil jumps: the Brazil fund EWZ +13.3% to $43.28, Bradesco +20.0% to $4.38, Ambev +9.8% to $3.28
  2. Yields climb again: 10-year 5.35%, up from 5.28% on Friday and above the 5.33% peak of 1 October; long-bond fund TLT $76.72 (−0.98%)
  3. Stocks rise anyway: S&P 500 fund SPY $774.21 (+0.59%), Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ +0.68%, Dow fund DIA +0.12%, small caps IWM +0.55%, equal-weight RSP +0.53%
  4. Services survey: ISM services 54.9 in September, below the 55.1 expected and August's 55.4
  5. Sectors: materials +1.38%, energy +1.15%, communication services +1.03% lead; real estate −0.42% lags; low-volatility fund +0.37% against momentum flat
  6. This morning's Pulse in New York: TSMC's US shares +2.7% to $485.44, but chip funds flat to lower (SOXX −0.16%, XSD −0.53%), KLA −1.08%, Applied −0.57%, ASML −0.31%
  7. Earnings card closes tonight: Micron $1,065.26 (−0.90%), right at its $1,065.11 start; Jabil $303.90 (−0.17%), 5.9% above its $286.86 start
  8. Accenture $193.93 (−2.50%), far below its $205.93 sold line before Tuesday's grade; Nike $33.63 (−0.71%), between its $32.85 and $34.89 lines
  9. Euro recovers to $1.1208 after $1.1166 in Asia; dollar index 102.25 (+0.31%); oil $89.97 (−1.25%); gold $4,156 (−0.15%); bitcoin $85,342 (−1.35%)
  10. After the close: Aehr Test Systems reports; shares $106.74 (−0.44%)

The ten lines

  1. 1

    UP Brazil jumps: the Brazil fund EWZ +13.3% to $43.28, Bradesco +20.0% to $4.38, Ambev +9.8% to $3.28

    EWZBBDABEV

    The biggest move of the day comes from Sunday's election in Brazil. According to news reports, right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro took about 47% of the vote in the first round against about 45% for President Lula, a stronger result than the polls had shown. The two meet again in a runoff on 25 October. Investors read a possible change of government as friendlier to markets and the budget, and they bought Brazil's banks hardest: Bradesco's American shares are up 20%, Itaú and Nubank were up more than 10% in early trading.

  2. 2

    LEVEL Yields climb again: 10-year 5.35%, up from 5.28% on Friday and above the 5.33% peak of 1 October; long-bond fund TLT $76.72 (−0.98%)

    ^TNXTLT

    Friday's weak jobs report has not stopped the climb in long-term rates. The 10-year Treasury yield is up about 7 basis points on the day, and the long-bond fund TLT touched $76.69 — the lowest level in a year. That is the opposite of what weak data usually does. The bond market is pricing government borrowing and sticky inflation, not the job market. Real estate, the sector most sensitive to rates, is the only one in the red (XLRE −0.42%).

  3. Sector Rotation Where the money is rotating across the eleven sectors — the board behind the day’s leadership story. Open the rotation board →
  4. 3

    UP Stocks rise anyway: S&P 500 fund SPY $774.21 (+0.59%), Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ +0.68%, Dow fund DIA +0.12%, small caps IWM +0.55%, equal-weight RSP +0.53%

    SPYQQQDIAIWMRSP

    The morning's slightly red futures did not last. All three big indices are higher, and this time the average stock keeps up: the equal-weight fund rises almost as much as the S&P 500, and small caps too. The fear gauge VIX is a touch higher at 15.51, after 16.38 early in the session. QQQ is at $754.64, comfortably above the $746.16 line from Saturday's US letter.

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Further reading on Closelooknet

Ten lines on the US midday tape, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading day at 12:30 ET. See The Morning 10 and the Daily Pulse.