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TLT Breaks 78 After Soft PCE, Jabil -7.7%: Midday Read

Bonds — TLT breaks 78 even after soft inflation; 30-year at 5.64%, software jumps, Jabil −7.7% on a beat

Core PCE rose only 0.2% in August (3.0% on the year, 3.3% expected), yet the long-bond fund TLT trades at 77.58, below Tuesday's 78.23 close and its lowest level in a year. Software leads: IGV +1.8%, Microsoft +1.6%, Apple +1.9%. Jabil beats and raises its outlook and still falls 7.7%. Micron reports after the close.

In this edition

TLT TLH IEF SPY IGV MSFT AI BB

The Midday 10 Wed, Sep 30, 2026 ~60 seconds 13:30 ET

Inflation came in softer than expected this morning, and the bond market sold off anyway. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% in August against 0.3% expected; on the year it is 3.0%, not the 3.3% forecast. Second-quarter growth was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%. Yields dipped on the release, then turned higher as traders looked ahead to Friday's jobs report after a hotter private payrolls number from ADP.

The long-bond fund TLT now trades at 77.58, down 0.83%: below the 78 that held at Tuesday's close and below Tuesday's intraday low of 77.93. The 30-year yield is at 5.64%, the 10-year at 5.29%.

Stocks look past it. The S&P 500 fund SPY is up 0.53% and the Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ 0.63%, led by software and the largest companies. The Dow and the small caps are flat, and banks, real estate and consumer staples are lower. Micron reports after the close.

US intraday quotes at about 13:25 ET (17:25 UTC); moves are measured against Tuesday's closes. Intraday prints are not closes. Oil moves are the Brent and WTI funds (BNO, USO), not futures. Treasury yields are Yahoo's Cboe yield indices. Core PCE, GDP and the Jabil results from the published releases as reported.

  1. Long bonds break 78: TLT $77.58 (−0.83%), TLH $91.92 (−0.62%), IEF $89.17 (−0.32%); 30-year yield 5.64% (Tuesday 5.594%), 10-year 5.29% (5.255%)
  2. Soft inflation, strong growth: core PCE +0.2% in August (0.3% expected), 3.0% on the year (3.3% expected); second-quarter GDP revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%
  3. Software leads: software fund IGV $106.66 (+1.81%), Microsoft $516.93 (+1.57%), C3.ai $10.85 (+4.93%), BlackBerry $9.13 (+4.99%)
  4. Megacaps: Apple $335.68 (+1.91%) after Tuesday's 2.7% drop, Nvidia $230.37 (+1.39%); Meta $734.40 (−0.59%)
  5. Jabil $292.20 (−7.74%) after beating on the quarter and guiding fiscal 2027 above estimates
  6. Micron $1,069.34 (+0.40%) ahead of tonight's results; chip fund SOXX −0.25%, ASML −1.10%, Arm −2.57%; Western Digital +1.30%
  7. Bloom Energy $278.72 (−4.30%) gives back part of Tuesday's 10.8% jump
  8. Sectors split: technology XLK +0.85%, energy XLE +0.72%; financials XLF −0.68%, real estate XLRE −0.65%, staples XLP −0.59%, health care XLV −0.29%
  9. Oil funds bounce: WTI fund USO $146.36 (+2.10%), Brent fund BNO $60.31 (+2.65%); gold fund GLD $380.83 (−0.54%); bitcoin $84,088 (+1.25%); dollar index 101.38 (flat)
  10. Rebalance day: today's close resets every Closelooknet equal-weight index to an equal share per name

The ten lines

  1. 1

    LEVEL Long bonds break 78: TLT $77.58 (−0.83%), TLH $91.92 (−0.62%), IEF $89.17 (−0.32%); 30-year yield 5.64% (Tuesday 5.594%), 10-year 5.29% (5.255%)

    TLTTLHIEF^TYX^TNX

    This morning's Morning 10 said 78 had held as a closing level. At midday it is gone: TLT trades under Tuesday's close of 78.23, its lowest close in a year, and under Tuesday's intraday low of 77.93. The longer the maturity, the bigger the drop. What counts is the close; a finish under 78 today would confirm the break, and the Global letter named 74 as the next level.

  2. 2

    LEVEL Soft inflation, strong growth: core PCE +0.2% in August (0.3% expected), 3.0% on the year (3.3% expected); second-quarter GDP revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%

    ^TNXSPY

    On a normal day a softer inflation number lifts bond prices. Today yields dipped on the release and then rose again: growth was revised higher, the ADP private payrolls number came in hotter, and Friday brings the September jobs report. The bond market is trading supply and growth, not this month's inflation.

  3. Trade the Look The Compound — growth with no tech inside: the fourth wikifolio, in its test phase, as a certificate later in 2026. See the wikifolio →
  4. 3

    UP Software leads: software fund IGV $106.66 (+1.81%), Microsoft $516.93 (+1.57%), C3.ai $10.85 (+4.93%), BlackBerry $9.13 (+4.99%)

    IGVMSFTAIBB

    After a week in which the per-user software names were sold on Meta's enterprise move, the group is bought back. IGV had lost 2.7% in five sessions to Tuesday. BlackBerry's earnings window on our Print Record closed flat on Tuesday at $8.72; today it trades above $9.

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Further reading on Closelooknet

Ten lines on the US midday tape, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading day at 12:30 ET. See The Morning 10 and the Daily Pulse.