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Oracle Force Majeure, 30-Year at 5.45%: AI Credit Stress

AI Credit — Oracle invokes force majeure on a New Mexico data center; the 30-year hits 5.45%

Oracle is down 5.0% and Blue Owl 4.9% after Oracle sent a force-majeure notice on its Stargate campus in New Mexico. Its 2055 bond already yielded 7.73%, up 24 basis points in five days. The thirty-year Treasury is at 5.45% and the ten-year at 5.15%. The Nasdaq is down 0.74% and chips 1.7%, while broad credit spreads stay tight.

In this edition

ORCL OWL NVDA GOOGL OBDC ARCC BXSL CRWV

The Midday 10 Thu, Sep 24, 2026 ~60 seconds 12:30 ET

Two stories are running this market at midday, and they feed each other. The first is Oracle. According to Bloomberg and CNBC, the company sent a force-majeure notice to the developer of Project Jupiter, a 2.45-gigawatt data-center campus in New Mexico that belongs to the Stargate build-out, to protect itself from payment obligations if the project slips. Oracle says the project remains on schedule; the developer, a Blue Owl unit, says its financial commitments are unchanged. Oracle is down 5.04% at $137.28, Blue Owl 4.9%.

The second is rates. The ten-year Treasury yield is at 5.154%, up four basis points from Wednesday, and the thirty-year at 5.45%, a level reports describe as the highest since 2004. Jobless claims came in at 197,000, lower than expected, which gives the Fed no reason to relax.

Put the two together and you get the question our Credit Stress board was built for: who pays for the AI build-out with borrowed money, and what happens when borrowing gets dearer. Oracle is the only company in the board's tier 2, and its 2055 bond already yielded 7.73% before today's news. Stocks are lower across the board - Nasdaq down 0.74%, the chip fund SOXX 1.72% - but broad credit spreads are still near their tightest in three years. The stress is in a few names, not in the market.

US intraday quotes at about 11:35 ET (15:35 UTC), the last five-minute bar; moves are measured against Wednesday's closes. Intraday prints are not closes. Europe is shown in the last minutes of its session; Tokyo, Taipei, Hong Kong and Shanghai are today's closes. Oil moves are the Brent and WTI funds (BNO, USO); the Brent price level is as reported. The Oracle force-majeure notice, the company statements, the project-debt quote, Oracle's credit-default-swap level, jobless claims and the Trump-Xi meeting are taken from Bloomberg, CNBC, 24/7 Wall St and wire reports. Credit Stress board figures are from the 22 September snapshot; bond yields are Wednesday's.

  1. Oracle $137.28 (-5.04%) after a force-majeure notice on Project Jupiter, its 2.45-gigawatt Stargate campus in New Mexico; Blue Owl, whose unit develops the site, $9.13 (-4.9%)
  2. Oracle's 2055 bond yielded 7.73% on Wednesday, up 24bp in five days and from 6.99% in June; Nvidia's 2050 bond rose 10.6bp to 6.26%, Alphabet's 2060 bond 9.7bp to 6.07%
  3. Private-credit lenders lower but calm: OBDC (-1.6%), Ares Capital (-0.91%), BXSL (-0.73%); the neoclouds mixed: Applied Digital (-2.53%), TeraWulf (-2.11%), Core Scientific (-1.57%), CoreWeave (-0.93%), Nebius $239.80 (+5.82%)
  4. Ten-year 5.154% (Wednesday 5.114%), thirty-year 5.45% (5.401%), five-year 5.03%; the long-bond fund TLT $79.76 (-0.87%); jobless claims 197,000 against 201,000 expected
  5. Nasdaq Composite 26,736.16 (-0.74%), Nasdaq 100 30,245.61 (-0.74%), S&P 500 7,667.88 (-0.50%), Dow 51,147.53 (-0.71%), Russell 2000 2,814.92 (-0.84%); equal-weight S&P (-0.58%)
  6. Chips lower again: SOXX 555.97 (-1.72%), SMH (-1.59%); Broadcom $347.74 (-2.04%), SanDisk $1,763.34 (-2.93%), Nvidia $222.05 (-1.53%), Micron $1,055.45 (-1.53%), AMD $611.70 (-0.47%, just under $1 trillion)
  7. Meta $765.67 (+2.9%) after Connect; Salesforce $241.58 (+1.68%); software fund IGV 107.56 (-0.50%); Microsoft (-1.17%), Amazon (-1.23%), Alphabet (+0.26%)
  8. Oil jumps for a second day: the Brent fund BNO $62.56 (+3.64%), the WTI fund USO $154.82 (+4.02%), energy stocks XLE $63.29 (+1.48%); Brent reported above $105 a barrel
  9. Dollar 158.96 yen (+0.42%), bitcoin $84,317 (flat), gold fund GLD $389.46 (-0.87%), silver fund SLV (-1.87%); high-yield bond fund HYG (-0.24%), investment-grade fund LQD (-0.48%)
  10. Europe lower into the close: Euro Stoxx 50 6,275.12 (-0.39%), DAX 25,256.83 (-0.61%), CAC 8,081.08 (-0.52%), FTSE 100 10,683.42 (-0.20%); Asia closed Nikkei 65,513.99 (+0.76%), Taiex 48,024.60 (+0.47%), Hang Seng 24,761.13 (-1.30%), Shanghai 3,888.37 (-1.61%)

The ten lines

  1. 1

    DOWN Oracle $137.28 (-5.04%) after a force-majeure notice on Project Jupiter, its 2.45-gigawatt Stargate campus in New Mexico; Blue Owl, whose unit develops the site, $9.13 (-4.9%)

    ORCLOWL

    According to Bloomberg and CNBC, the notice is meant to protect Oracle from payment obligations if the project is delayed; reported causes are a denied energy permit, gas-pipeline delays and permit lawsuits. Oracle says the project remains on schedule, Blue Owl that its commitments are unchanged. A force-majeure notice is not a default. But it lands on the one company in tier 2 of our Credit Stress board: free cash flow minus $28.7 billion over four quarters, $37.2 billion of new debt.

  2. 2

    LEVEL Oracle's 2055 bond yielded 7.73% on Wednesday, up 24bp in five days and from 6.99% in June; Nvidia's 2050 bond rose 10.6bp to 6.26%, Alphabet's 2060 bond 9.7bp to 6.07%

    ORCLNVDAGOOGL

    Nvidia and Alphabet show what the rate move alone does to a long bond. Oracle rose more than twice as much, and the gap to Nvidia is now 147 basis points - the extra the market charges for Oracle's own risk. Reports put Oracle's five-year credit-default swap, the price of insuring its debt, at a record near 222 basis points and the project's debt below 90 cents on the dollar; we have not verified either and show them as reported.

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  4. 3

    DOWN Private-credit lenders lower but calm: OBDC (-1.6%), Ares Capital (-0.91%), BXSL (-0.73%); the neoclouds mixed: Applied Digital (-2.53%), TeraWulf (-2.11%), Core Scientific (-1.57%), CoreWeave (-0.93%), Nebius $239.80 (+5.82%)

    OBDCARCCBXSLCRWVNBISAPLDWULFCORZ

    Tier 3 of the board - companies whose interest bills are not yet covered by their own business - scores 86 out of 100 on stress, the highest of any tier, and it did not break this morning. The contract did. Blue Owl sits in tier 5 with the private-credit funds; its 4.9% fall against 1-2% moves in the listed lending funds says the market is pricing the developer's exposure, not a wider loan problem.

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C · line 11 · members

Today in line 11: what Oracle's force-majeure notice does and does not mean, why its 2055 bond was already widening before the news, why tier 3 of our Credit Stress board did not break but the contract did, and why a thirty-year at 5.45% raises the price of every borrowed dollar in the AI build-out while broad credit spreads stay tight.

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Further reading on Closelook

Ten lines on the US midday tape, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading day at 12:30 ET. See The Morning 10 and the Daily Pulse.