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The Trading Day · Friday, September 25, 2026

Rates — the 30-year hits its highest since 2004; Oracle and Arm sold, Meta and Intel bought, Nasdaq ends flat

The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.501% on Thursday, the highest since June 2004, and the 10-year reached 5.223%, the highest since June 2007. Both eased into the close, at 5.461% and 5.162%. Jobless claims fell to 197,000, below the 201,000 expected - another sign of an economy that does not need lower rates.

The Morning 10

Rates — the 30-year hits its highest since 2004; Oracle and Arm sold, Meta and Intel bought, Nasdaq ends flat

  1. 1 The 30-year touched 5.501%, the highest since June 2004, and closed at 5.461%; the 10-year touched 5.223%, the highest since June 2007, and closed at 5.162%; the 5-year closed above 5% at 5.025%; TLT -1.29%
  2. 2 Stocks sat through it: Nasdaq Composite 26,939.37 (+0.01%) after -0.74% at midday, S&P 500 7,704.13 (-0.02%), Dow 51,349.98 (-0.31%), Russell 2000 2,835.57 (-0.11%); equal-weight RSP -0.50%
  3. 3 Oracle's notice on Project Jupiter spread: Oracle $139.54 (-3.47%), Blue Owl $9.25 (-3.65%), Arm $306.34 (-7.88%); in the Rubin index, DC power -1.85% and AI factory systems -1.58%
  4. 4 Meta $777.59 (+4.50%) the day after Connect; the processor makers rose with it - Intel $127.39 (+3.91%), AMD $629.26 (+2.38%); Alphabet +1.34%
  5. 5 Chips split, software sold: SOXX $566.07 (+0.06%); SanDisk $1,753.62 (-3.47%), memory fund DRAM -1.91%, Broadcom -1.30%, Nvidia -0.41%; Micron $1,080.53 (+0.81%); IGV -0.88%, Microsoft -0.53%, cyber fund CIBR -0.79% after its record
  6. 6 Oil rose again: Brent fund BNO +2.45%, WTI fund USO +2.86%; Brent touched $108.23 after Houthi missiles at Saudi Arabia, then eased on a report of talks on a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
  7. 7 Costco beat and barely moved: net sales $93.9bn (+11.2%), EPS $6.75 against $6.55 expected, comparable sales +9.4% (+6.7% without gas and currencies); closed $896.48 (-0.91%) before the report, $898.80 (+0.26%) after hours
  8. 8 Tokyo extended its gains: Nikkei 225 66,356.13 (+1.29%) at 05:52 UTC; Tokyo Electron +4.56%, Advantest +2.48%, Kioxia +2.02%; SoftBank -2.68%; the yen firmer at 158.18 per dollar
  9. 9 Trump and Xi met for about 90 minutes - 'a great meeting', two pandas, few concrete results; Hong Kong's Hang Seng 24,409.45 (-1.42%) at 05:52 UTC, a two-month low, tech shares weakest
  10. 10 US stock futures slightly higher - Nasdaq 100 +0.26%, S&P 500 +0.05% at 05:52 UTC; bitcoin 84,242; today durable goods (12:30 UTC) and final Michigan sentiment (14:00 UTC); inflation data (PCE) and Micron next Wednesday

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