The Morning 10
Rates — the Fed hikes and the 10-year closes above 5%: the belly sold, the relief unwound, chips back under $505
- 1 The decision and the curve: the Fed hikes, first since 2023, ‘sees more tightening ahead’ (Reuters), one more this year (CNBC); the 5-year +3 bp to 4.859%, the 10-year closes 5.006% — first close above 5.00% of the cycle — the 30-year −1.5 bp to 5.349%; the curve flattens into the hike
- 2 The equity close, the relief unwound: S&P 500 ETF $754.05 (−0.4%), second close under $757.83 — $760.70 at midday; Nasdaq-100 fund $704.72 flat, on the 704 shelf, under $708.69 — $710.89 at midday; equal-weight S&P −0.8%, Russell −0.4%, VIX 17.7; overnight futures +0.5%, the after-hours prints back at the lines
- 3 Chips, reclaimed and lost: semiconductor ETF +0.6% to $502.06 — $508.60 at midday, under $505 at the bell; design bought, AMD +1.6% to $512.50, Marvell +3.6%, TSMC +1.2%, Nvidia +0.8% to $213.90; equipment sold a third day, Applied Materials −1.4%, Lam −0.6%, KLA −0.4%, onsemi −9.0%; memory ETF +0.6% to $55.33, Micron −0.1%
- 4 Rubin +1.9% to 1,880.81 on the wiring, not the tools: Interconnect +4.6%, Advanced Materials +4.2%, DC Power +4.1%, Systems +3.5% — Soitec +13.4%, Lumentum +9.6%, Lenovo +8.3%, Credo +7.4%, Coherent +6.9%, Astera Labs +6.6%; Power Semiconductors −1.0%, onsemi −9.0%, Technoprobe −6.7%; the week −5.3%, the month −7.4%, the year +83.0%
- 5 The other three on the hike: Agentic Winners 40 −1.3% to 921.21 — Applications −1.5%, UiPath −4.2%, CoStar −3.8%, Duolingo −3.7%, Intuit −3.4%, Adobe −2.8%, ServiceNow −1.5%, Microsoft −1.4%, Oracle +2.0%; HALO −0.3% to 1,005.06, Energy Transition −2.6%, First Solar −5.6%, Axon +6.0%; Agentic Ecosystem +0.3% to 1,606.60, OVHcloud +8.0%, DigitalOcean +5.0%, CoreWeave +3.0%
- 6 Print record, the drift after the verdicts: Oracle +2.0% to about $143, still under its $148.35 sold line; Adobe −2.8% to about $250, now under the $256.29 line it was paid above — the three-day verdicts stand, the tape has moved on; no windows open, both names next print 9 December
- 7 Asia into the Bank of Japan: Nikkei +0.2% to 64,024, SoftBank +1.0%, Tokyo Electron −2.1%; Kospi +0.2% to 6,733, SK Hynix −0.2%; Taiex +1.0% to 46,313, TSMC +1.9% to NT$2,425; Hang Seng −0.9% to 24,480; the yen 155.8 after 156.2 overnight; the BoJ decides Friday, expected to raise
- 8 The other prices: gold −0.6% by the close and −1.2% overnight to $4,335 — sold on the hike; dollar index 100.27; Brent $105.31 after $105.83, under Thursday’s $107.63 a second day; long bond ETF +0.2%, high-yield ETF flat; bitcoin $76,318, +0.5%
- 9 The wires this morning: ‘Fed raises rates in search of “timelier” drop in inflation, sees more tightening ahead’ (Reuters) · ‘Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year’ (CNBC) · ‘The Key Takeaways From Kevin Warsh’s Press Conference’ (WSJ) · ‘Fed hikes interest rates for first time in three years, drawing rebuke from Trump’ (New York Post) · ‘US rate rise jolts yen ahead of Bank of Japan meeting’ (FT) · ‘U.S. stock futures rise after hawkish Fed dents Wall St’ (Investing.com) · ‘Why optical stocks Lumentum and Coherent were the day’s biggest S&P 500 gainers’ (MarketWatch)
- 10 The clock: weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey 12:30 UTC; the Bank of Japan’s decision in Tokyo on Friday morning, expected to raise; the US quarterly options expiry Friday; Micron’s print next week, the first order-book fact of the quarter; the lines — S&P ETF $757.83, Nasdaq-100 fund 704 and $708.69, chip ETF $505, memory ETF $58, the 10-year 5.00%