Oil settles at $107.63, the 10-year hits 4.95% and the…

Oil settles at $107.63, the 10-year hits 4.95% and the 30-year 5.36%, its highest since 2007: chips lead a fourth down day, Oracle beats and jumps 4% after hours, Adobe beats and slips — and Asia sells its chipmakers 3% to 7%

Wall Street fell for a fourth day on Thursday, and for the first time this week the semiconductor stocks led the way down instead of holding the market up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 316.56 points, or 0.6%, to 52,064.10; the S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,591.70; the Nasdaq Composite 0.7% to 26,081.72; the Russell 2000 1.0%. The three prices that have driven the week all moved the same way again. Brent crude settled at $107.63, up 5.9%, after Houthi attacks cut Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline throughput; US producer prices rose 5.4% from a year ago against 5.1% expected; the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.95%, its highest in nearly three years, and the 30-year 5.36%, its highest since 2007. Technology and materials each fell more than 1%; only communication services and consumer staples rose. Apple +3.6% after its iPhone event was the exception among the large names, Freeport-McMoRan −7.3% as copper fell from its record was the other extreme. After the close Oracle beat on revenue, earnings, cloud growth and backlog and rose 4% in extended trading; Adobe beat and fell 2% on a fourth-quarter revenue guide whose midpoint sits a little under the street. Asia has taken the chip selling and doubled it: the Nikkei closed down 2.0% at 63,971 after falling 2.8% intraday, the Kospi is at 6,923, −1.6%, after a morning low of 6,859, with Advantest −6.8%, Kioxia −7.0% and Samsung −3.3%. Brent is $105.81 this morning, down 1.7%, and S&P futures are up 0.4%. Ten points, then the eleventh.

The Morning 10

1 Fourth day down: Dow −0.6% to 52,064, S&P −0.6% to 7,592, Nasdaq −0.7%, Russell −1.0% — technology and materials −1% or more, only communication services and staples up; Apple +3.6%, Freeport −7.3%
2 Chips re-couple, on the way down: semiconductor ETF −2.7%, VanEck fund −2.4% against the S&P −0.6% — Intel −5.6%, Lam −5.6%, Astera −5.3%, Micron −4.9%, Western Digital −4.4%, SanDisk −4.1%, AMD −3.4%, Marvell −3.4%, Nvidia −2.4%; the software ETF −0.6%, a sixth red close
3 Rates: 10-year 4.95%, highest in nearly three years; 30-year 5.36%, highest since 2007 after a weak auction; the $6 billion buyback bought only $5.2 billion — producer prices 5.4% on the year against 5.1%, claims 206,000; TLT −1.2% to $80.78, IEF −0.8%, SHY −0.3%
4 Oil: Brent settles at $107.63, up 5.9%, WTI $102.48, up 6.7% — a second triple-digit close, after Houthi attacks cut Saudi capacity by about 600,000 barrels a day and East-West pipeline throughput by 700,000; Brent $105.81 this morning; the energy ETF fell anyway
5 The ECB raises to 2.50%, unanimous, and Lagarde calls it a no-brainer — the second hike of the war, no discussion of the next step, markets price more; Europe closed lower with SAP −2.8%, Siemens −2.4%, ASML −1.6%, our Euro-AI index −1.5% with its chip group −4.4%
6 Asia sells the chips it bought on Thursday: Nikkei −2.0% to 63,971 after −2.8% intraday, Advantest −6.8%, Kioxia −7.0%, Lasertec −5.0%, SoftBank −4.2%; Kospi 6,923, −1.6%, after a 6,859 low, Samsung −3.3%, SK hynix −1.7%; Taiwan −1.6%, TSMC −1.6%; Hong Kong −0.5% with Tencent and Alibaba up
7 Our indices on Thursday’s closes: Rubin −1.8% with all eight layers down (Connectivity −2.8%, Interconnects −3.2%, Systems −3.0%, Data-Centre Power −2.9%, Design −0.3%), HALO −1.2%, Euro-AI −1.5%, Agentic Winners −0.3%, AEI −0.6%
8 Print record: Oracle beats on every line — revenue $19.3 billion, cloud infrastructure +121%, backlog $664 billion — after falling 5.4% to $152.94 into the print, and rises 4% after hours to $159.58; Adobe beats, guides the fourth quarter a shade under the street and slips 2% to $243.50; both windows score Tuesday
9 Hedges did not hedge: gold $4,399 after GLD −1.7% to $396.36, below the $4,402 50-day line; silver −5.3%, copper miners −7.0%; bitcoin $77,200 loses the $78,000 line; dollar 99.0 — S&P futures +0.4%, Nasdaq futures +0.4%, Dow futures +0.4%
10 Friday’s clock: US consumer prices at 12:30 UTC with 3.4% on the year and 0.3% on the month expected, the last inflation print before the Fed decides Tuesday and Wednesday with a hike about 70% priced; Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC; iPhone 18 Pro pre-orders Saturday; the BoJ Thursday and Friday; Oracle and Adobe score Tuesday

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