Sold on Price, Bought on Flow

One signal to define the week and shape the month. Three minutes, six questions. Every Sunday at 21:00 CET — scored the next.

13 September 2026 · closes through Sep 11 · flow scan of Sep 12.

0 · Last week, scored

Verdict: the first door was touched and not opened; chips led software for a second week, but the bid went to power and construction, not to the tools. Both questions stay open into the Fed.

Last Sunday asked whether September ends the Rubin consolidation, and named the doors: 2,017 (the 50-day average), 2,155 (the range top), then the record. The Rubin Build-Out 100 closed Friday at 1,963.98, +1.0% on the week. It rose four sessions running to 1,986.30 on Wednesday, touched the 50-day — which has itself drifted down to 1,989 as August’s high closes rolled out of the window — and was sold 2.0% on Thursday. Friday recovered 0.9%. The 20-day average at 1,957 is reclaimed; the 50-day is not. The September 2 low at 1,877 was never in play, so the rising-lows argument stands, and the first door is still shut.

The second question — was Friday’s chip bid the catalyst or the reflex — got the answer at the index level and not at the sector level. Through a week of software prints and inflation data, chips led software again: the semiconductor fund +1.4%, the software fund −2.9%, the Nasdaq 100 fund −0.6% at 714.88, still inside its 701 / 746 frame. But inside Rubin the week belonged to data-centre construction (+6.7%) and data-centre power (+6.5%), foundry and integration (+5.2%) and the server assemblers (+3.9%). The equipment layer that the diary said must turn on kept falling: lithography −3.7%, storage −3.5%, photomasks −3.2%, wafer processing −3.1%. Half a catalyst. Oracle’s window is open — 153.83 on Friday against a 152.94 entry, paid above 157.53, sold below 148.35 — and closes at Tuesday’s close, with Adobe (252.23 against 248.83) beside it.