AI Trade — Show-Me Quarter for 2027

0:00 Korea −8.5%. TSMC: a record quarter.

0:06 AI Trade: a show-me quarter decides 2027.

0:12 On Thomas’s chart the Nasdaq-100 sits on support at 729, where the April trendline meets.

0:20 If it breaks: 704 next, then the summer low near 662.

0:27 The chip funds did not confirm the Nasdaq’s new high: SOXX, SMH, SMHX and XSD all stayed below June.

0:35 A broad non-confirmation by the semiconductor complex.

0:40 The biggest names carry the index: TOPT, the top-20 fund, broke above its summer high at 35.

0:47 Our AI indices split: the Rubin build-out sits well below its June peak, the Agentic Ecosystem near its high.

0:55 The short clock says sell: the chip fund is 20.7% below its June high.

1:01 The long clock says intact: TSMC profit +68.7%, ASML sold out into 2028.

1:10 The fear is 2000’s empty fibre. Barclays: firms put about 5% of IT budgets into AI.

1:18 But companies rent AI. Anthropic: $16.8 billion this quarter, $1.7 per compute dollar.

1:26 Our demand gauge reads 74.1, above the build-out at 56.5. The reverse of 2000.

1:35 The watch item: two demand pulses cooled this week.

1:39 The receipts: Microsoft on 28 October, Datadog and Cloudflare in early November.

1:45 If they deliver, 2027 is intact. If not, expect a pause of six to twelve months.