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Markets Steady Overnight: Kospi Up, Nasdaq Futures Rise

Overnight — Markets steady after Friday's chip rout: Nasdaq futures +0.8%, Kospi +2.2%, Bitcoin near 78,000

The weekend did not add to Friday's selling. Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.8% and S&P 500 futures 0.4% at 07:17 UTC. In Asia the Kospi rose 2.2% with SK Hynix up 3.8%, Shanghai gained 1.1% and Shenzhen 1.6% after a firm China factory survey, Hong Kong edged up 0.5% and India's Nifty 50 1.0%; the Nikkei slipped 0.3% and Taiwan 0.6%, where TSMC fell 3.5% in its first session after Friday's US chip sell-off. Bitcoin spent the weekend between 77,000 and 78,300 and trades at about 78,000; gold is at 3,916, still under 4,000, and the dollar barely moved. Today brings the US ISM factory survey at 15:00 UTC, the last day of the earnings grades for Alphabet, Microsoft, ServiceNow and Eli Lilly, and Apple and Palantir after the close.

In this edition

ASX EWY EWT INDA AMD SPY QQQ GLD

The Morning 10 Mon, Nov 2, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

The ten points

Markets were calm overnight. After Friday's sell-off in chip stocks, Nasdaq-100 futures traded up 0.81% at 28,765.50 at 07:17 UTC and S&P 500 futures up 0.42% at 7,645.75, with small-cap futures up 0.49% and Dow futures 0.29%. Nobody in Asia sold as if Friday had been the start of something bigger: of the eight main indices in the region, five rose.

The Kospi gained 2.24% to 5,859.08, led by SK Hynix (+3.8%) and Samsung Electronics (+1.8%). China rose after the S&P Global factory survey came in at 52.0 against 51.6 expected: Shanghai up 1.08% to 3,638.03, Shenzhen up 1.63%. Hong Kong added 0.45% and India's Nifty 50 1.04% in morning trade. Japan and Taiwan were the soft spots, the Nikkei down 0.33% and Taiwan down 0.65%; TSMC fell 3.5% in its first session after the US chip index dropped 8.2% on Friday, a fraction of what US-listed chip makers lost.

Outside stocks it was just as quiet. Bitcoin's daily closes over the weekend ran from 77,198 to 78,248, and it trades near 78,005. Gold futures are at 3,916, up 0.4% but still under 4,000; silver rose 2.7%. The yen is at 157.8 to the dollar, the euro at 1.119, and the dollar index at 101.8, all close to Friday. The one weak number of the morning came from Germany, where September retail sales fell 2.0% on the month against a 0.4% rise expected.

  1. Asia — Kospi +2.2%, China +1.1%, Taiwan and Japan barely lower after the chip rout
  2. Asia's AI Names — SK Hynix +3.8%, Tokyo Electron +5.2%, TSMC −3.5%, Kioxia −15.8%
  3. US Futures — Nasdaq-100 +0.8%, S&P 500 +0.4% at 07:17 UTC
  4. Bitcoin and Gold — Bitcoin steady near 78,000 all weekend; gold 3,916, still under 4,000
  5. Dollar, Yen and Bonds — no flight to safety; TLT held above 81.50 on Friday
  6. Friday in Brief — S&P 500 −1.8%, chips −8.2% after Intel's 28.6% plunge
  7. AI Indices — Rubin down 6.1% on Friday, still up 0.6% on the week
  8. Earnings Grades — Alphabet, Microsoft, ServiceNow and Eli Lilly are graded at tonight's close
  9. Today — German retail sales −2.0%, US factory survey at 15:00 UTC, Apple and Palantir after the close
  10. Dan Niles · Niles Investment Management

  1. Asia — Kospi +2.2%, China +1.1%, Taiwan and Japan barely lower after the chip rout

    Structure
    What
    Five of the eight main Asian indices rose this morning. The Kospi gained 2.24% to 5,859.08, Shanghai 1.08% to 3,638.03 and Shenzhen 1.63% to 11,010.68, India's Nifty 50 1.04% to 23,293 in morning trade and the Hang Seng 0.45% to 23,400 in afternoon trade. The Nikkei slipped 0.33% to 63,081.86, Taiwan 0.65% to 44,920.14 and Australia's ASX 200 0.58%. China's S&P Global factory survey came in at 52.0 for October, above the 51.6 expected and just under September's 52.1; a reading over 50 means activity is growing. On Friday in New York the Korea fund EWY had fallen 5.52% and the Taiwan fund EWT 4.60%, while the India fund INDA rose 0.65% and the China fund FXI 1.19%.
    If
    Korea and Taiwan hold this morning's levels through Tuesday, when AMD reports.
    Why
    The US-listed Korea and Taiwan funds trade while Seoul and Taipei are shut, so on Friday they priced in a hard Monday for both. Korea rose instead and Taiwan fell less than 1%, which says Asia did not read Friday's US chip sell-off as a global verdict on the AI trade.
    Then
    Tuesday's Asian session is the next test, after Apple and Palantir report tonight.

  2. Asia's AI Names — SK Hynix +3.8%, Tokyo Electron +5.2%, TSMC −3.5%, Kioxia −15.8%

    Structure
    What
    In Korea, SK Hynix rose 3.8% to 1,472,000 won and Samsung Electronics 1.8% to 229,000. In Japan the chip-equipment makers gained: Tokyo Electron 5.2% to 10,005 yen, Advantest 2.6% to 35,770 and Lasertec 8.0% to 40,720, while the memory maker Kioxia fell 15.8% to 11,345 and SoftBank Group 1.6% to 4,410. In Taiwan, TSMC fell 3.5% to 2,330 Taiwan dollars, its first session after the US chip index dropped 8.2% on Friday; MediaTek rose 1.4% and Foxconn 2.2%. In Hong Kong, in afternoon trade, Tencent gained 2.3%, Alibaba 2.7% and Xiaomi 6.6%.
    If
    TSMC stabilises above 2,300 Taiwan dollars while the equipment makers keep Monday's gains.
    Why
    Asia chose inside the sector rather than selling all of it: equipment makers and SK Hynix up, Kioxia and TSMC down. A market that buys some chip names the morning after a chip rout is sorting winners from losers, not leaving.
    Then
    The AI board on the AI indices surface carries the member-level reading for the names in our indices.
  3. Sector RS Monitor Relative strength across the sector board — which rotation is real, pattern-scored nightly. Open sector RS →

  4. US Futures — Nasdaq-100 +0.8%, S&P 500 +0.4% at 07:17 UTC

    Context
    What
    Nasdaq-100 futures traded at 28,765.50, up 0.81% from Friday's 28,534, and S&P 500 futures at 7,645.75, up 0.42% from 7,614. Small-cap futures rose 0.49% to 2,835.20 and Dow futures 0.29% to 52,066. After hours on Friday the S&P 500 fund SPY traded at 757.12 against a 755.72 close and the Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ at 692.69 against 690.49.
    If
    Futures hold their gains into the 13:30 UTC open and the ISM survey at 15:00 UTC.
    Why
    When a sell-off is about to extend, futures usually open lower on Sunday evening and keep sliding through the Asian session. This time they opened higher and stayed there, which points to Friday being driven by a few reports rather than a broad rush for the exits.
    Then
    The VIX, the market's measure of expected swings, closed Friday at 19.42; a move back under 18 would confirm the calm.

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C · point 11 · members

Today in line 11: four checks for whether a bad Friday turns into a bad week, and what each one said this morning. Did Asia confirm the chip sell-off, did the hedges keep falling, did futures hold, and which three events this week decide the next move.

The privileged, actionable read — what we do, and at which level — is in point 11, for members only.

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