Microsoft Up, Alphabet and ServiceNow Down; Marvell Bid

Big Tech — Microsoft up 2.9%, Alphabet down 10%, ServiceNow down 18% after hours; Marvell eyes Lumentum

Three mega-cap reports after Wednesday's close, three very different reactions. Microsoft rose 2.9% in after-hours trading to 546.32 on a double beat (earnings of $4.89 per share excluding the OpenAI charge against $4.71 expected, revenue of $92.3 billion, Azure up 48%). Alphabet fell 10.0% to 292.50 after missing on both earnings and revenue, with free cash flow negative $9.1 billion despite Cloud revenue up 103%, and ServiceNow dropped 18.1% to 122.95 on a two-cent earnings miss. It was the reverse of the read published before the prints, which had given Alphabet the easier bar and Microsoft the harder one. The official verdicts come Monday 2 November: our three-session grading window rates each reaction as paid, sold or flat depending on whether the stock closes at least 3% above, at least 3% below, or between its Wednesday close. Overnight, Bloomberg reported that Marvell is in advanced talks to buy Lumentum for around $83 billion; Lumentum jumped about 8.6% after hours while Marvell fell about 8.4%. Today: the ECB at 13:15 UTC, Eli Lilly before the open and Amazon after the close.

The Morning 10 · Thu, Oct 29, 2026 · ~90 seconds · 08:00 CET

The ten points

Wednesday's regular session was constructive before the earnings. The S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,743.98, the Nasdaq-100 gained 0.55% to 29,813.16, and the VIX eased 3.48% to 16.91. Chips led, with SOXX up 2.13% and SMH up 1.74%, while software sat out (IGV +0.12%, CLOU -0.20%). Among the singles, the memory ETF DRAM jumped 7.13% to 54.12, CoreWeave rose 7.32% to 63.93 and Nebius 6.96% to 182.34.

After the bell, three mega-cap reports sorted the market hard. Microsoft rose 2.9% after hours, Alphabet fell 10.0% and ServiceNow fell 18.1%, the opposite of the read that had given Alphabet the easier setup. Overnight, Bloomberg reported that Marvell is in advanced talks to acquire Lumentum for around $83 billion, with no agreement finalised: Lumentum rose about 8.6% after hours and Marvell fell about 8.4%. The neoclouds gave back part of their day, with CoreWeave down 4.7% and Nebius down 5.2% after hours.

Asia split this morning. The Kospi fell 1.24% to 5,937.66 as Samsung Electronics lost about 5% on results broadly in line with expectations, the Nikkei gained 1.10% to 64,659.47 for a second straight day, and Nasdaq-100 futures were down 1.1% at 07:03 UTC on the Alphabet and ServiceNow drag. Today brings the ECB at 13:15 UTC, Eli Lilly before the open, Amazon after the close, jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, and the grading of Cadence's window at the close.

1. 1 Big Tech — Microsoft up 2.9%, Alphabet down 10%, ServiceNow down 18% after hours
2. 2 Optics — Marvell reported in talks to buy Lumentum for around $83B; Lumentum +8.6%, Marvell -8.4% after hours
3. 3 Chips — SOXX +2.1% and DRAM +7.1% on Wednesday, software sat out; neoclouds gave it back after hours
4. 4 Fed — held 10 to 2 with two votes for a hike, December hike now about 86% priced
5. 5 Asia — Kospi gives back 1.2% as Samsung falls 5%; Nikkei up for a second day, BOJ decides Friday
6. 6 Futures — Nasdaq-100 down 1.1% on the Alphabet and ServiceNow drag; VIX 16.9, Money Temperature 52
7. 7 Rubin 100 — up 2.6% on Wednesday, but 115 of 130 names are still losing strength
8. 8 AI indices — Ecosystem up 4.5% on the week leads; HALO flat, AW40 lags
9. 9 Today — ECB at 13:15 UTC, Eli Lilly before the open, Amazon after the close, Cadence graded at the close
10. 10 Outside View — Dan Niles · Niles Investment Management

1. 1

   Big Tech — Microsoft up 2.9%, Alphabet down 10%, ServiceNow down 18% after hours

   Structure

   What

   Microsoft's entry close of 531.01 became a last after-hours trade of 546.32, up 2.9%, on a double beat: earnings of $4.89 per share excluding the OpenAI charge versus $4.71 expected, revenue of $92.3 billion, Azure up 48%. Alphabet went from 324.89 to 292.50, down 10.0%, on a double miss: earnings of $2.67 excluding an $8.7 billion equity loss versus $2.96 expected ($2.12 as reported), revenue of $127.58 billion versus about $127.9 billion, Cloud revenue up 103%, free cash flow negative $9.1 billion. ServiceNow went from 150.13 to 122.95, down 18.1%: earnings of $1.00 versus $1.02, revenue a hair above estimates, cRPO guidance of 18.5%. Going in, the regular session had Alphabet up 1.34% and Microsoft down 0.06%, with Amazon up 0.59%, Meta down 1.24%, Nvidia down 1.17% and Apple down 0.94%. The Midday 10 read published before the prints had given Alphabet the easier bar and Microsoft the harder one; the tape did the exact reverse.

   If

   Microsoft closes at or above 546.94 (3% over its entry) on Monday for a paid verdict, while Alphabet and ServiceNow stay below their sold lines of 315.14 and 145.63.

   Why

   The market rewarded the name that grew and showed cash, and punished the one that doubled its cloud business while burning $9.1 billion, and the one that missed by two cents. Microsoft's last trade sits about 62 cents under its paid line, so its window is live, not decided.

   Then

   All three windows run three sessions from Wednesday night and are graded on closes, not after-hours prints, on Monday 2 November. Lines and verdicts are on the print-record surface.

2. 2

   Optics — Marvell reported in talks to buy Lumentum for around $83B; Lumentum +8.6%, Marvell -8.4% after hours

   Structure

   What

   Bloomberg reported overnight that Marvell Technology is in advanced talks to acquire Lumentum, a deal reportedly valued around $83 billion, with an announcement possible as early as next week. No agreement has been finalised and the talks could still fall apart. Lumentum closed Wednesday up 5.5% at 913.95, then jumped after hours, up about 17% at the peak in the 16:55 to 17:05 ET window and last trading at 992.91, 8.6% above the close. Marvell fell about 8.4% after hours to roughly 230.59. Coherent rose 2.3% after hours in sympathy, after closing up 1.6% at 239.59; Fabrinet had closed up 7.0% at 367.30. Applied Materials closed up 5.1% at 416.00 but traded 2.0% lower after hours at 407.66.

   If

   A deal is confirmed next week, or the talks fall apart and the premium drains out of Lumentum and its neighbours.

   Why

   A reported $83 billion price for an optics maker reads as the AI build-out consolidating its supply chain, and the acquirer falling 8.4% while the target rises is the market questioning the price. The gap between the 17% peak and the 8.6% last trade shows traders hedging the report.

   Then

   This is a report, not an announcement. Watch the opening prints in Lumentum, Marvell and Coherent for whether the after-hours moves hold.

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4. 3

   Chips — SOXX +2.1% and DRAM +7.1% on Wednesday, software sat out; neoclouds gave it back after hours

   Structure

   What

   The chip ETFs led Wednesday: SOXX up 2.13%, SMH up 1.74%, XSD up 0.94%. Software did not join, with IGV up 0.12% and CLOU down 0.20%; among singles, Cisco fell 0.98%, monday.com 1.80% and Workday 0.54%. The memory ETF DRAM rose 7.13% to 54.12, CoreWeave 7.32% to 63.93 and Nebius 6.96% to 182.34. After hours the neoclouds gave back part of it: CoreWeave down 4.7% at 60.96, Nebius down 5.2% at 172.86.

   If

   The chip bid holds in the morning despite the Nasdaq futures drag, with the neoclouds recovering their after-hours losses.

   Why

   Hardware led while software sat out, so the day looked more like a build-out bid than a broad tech rally. The neoclouds slipping straight after the close is the first sign that the Alphabet and ServiceNow reaction reached beyond the two stocks.

   Then

   The Rubin and Ecosystem surfaces show whether the build-out names hold the day.

A daily overview, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading morning at 08:00 CET. See the Daily Pulse and today’s check-in.