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SK hynix 80% Margin, Kospi +6.6%; Fed + MSFT Tonight

Memory — SK hynix's 80% margin sends the Kospi +6.6% through 6,000; Fed and three mega-cap prints tonight

Fifteen days ago the Korean market sold its two memory champions through the 6,000 level on a fear — that China's CXMT would flood next-generation DRAM supply. Overnight, SK hynix answered with an income statement: record quarterly revenue of 104.6 trillion won, operating profit of 83.3 trillion won — an operating margin near 80%, well above the roughly 76–77 trillion analysts expected — plus a shareholder-return plan of about 100 trillion won (roughly $75 billion) in dividends and buybacks. SK hynix rose 10.9%, Samsung Electronics 9.0%, and the Kospi jumped 6.63% to 6,012.44 — its first close back above 6,000 since the 13 October scare, with a buy-side sidecar halting program trading for a second straight day. Taiwan added 2.0%, the Nikkei 1.1%. The US close had already leaned the same way: the companies that collect AI spending as revenue were paid again — Celestica +11.9% the day after its print, Amkor +8.5%, Cadence +6.5% and now well above its paid line — while chip ETFs gained 3–5% and software sat out. Tonight everything happens at once: the Fed decides at 18:00 UTC (a hold at 3.75–4.00% is ~90% priced; the tail risk is a hike, not a cut), and Microsoft, Alphabet and ServiceNow all report after the close — their three-session grading windows open from tonight's close.

In this edition

XSD SOXX SMH IGV CLOU

The Morning 10 Wed, Oct 28, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

The ten points

Tuesday extended the bounce and sharpened its message. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 7,722.60, the Nasdaq-100 gained 1.3%, and the VIX eased 4.7% to 17.5 — but the leadership was unmistakably the collection side of the AI trade. Celestica, Monday evening's +17% after-hours star, held almost all of it and closed +11.9% at 276.07; Amkor added 8.5%, Cadence 6.5% to 343.08. The optics-and-networking cohort ran again — Coherent +6.4%, Lumentum +5.9%, Fabrinet +5.5% — and the neoclouds outdid them all: Nebius +11.2%, CoreWeave +7.9%. Chip ETFs gained 3.0–4.7% across the complex while software barely moved and cloud slipped.

Overnight, Korea turned that lean into a verdict. SK hynix reported a record quarter before the open — revenue of 104.6 trillion won, operating profit of 83.3 trillion won, an operating margin near 80% on DRAM prices up high-twenties percent quarter-on-quarter — and paired it with a shareholder-return plan of about 100 trillion won for 2026: at least 30 trillion in dividends, at least 60 trillion in buybacks and cancellations. The stock rose 10.9% to 1,487,000 won, Samsung Electronics 9.0% to 242,000, and the Kospi surged 6.63% to 6,012.44 — back above 6,000 for the first time since the 13 October CXMT supply scare knocked it through that level, with a buy-side sidecar briefly halting program trading for the second day running. Taiwan rose 2.0%, the Nikkei 1.1% to 63,954; Hong Kong was flat. US futures drifted higher, Nasdaq futures up about half a percent; gold eased 0.7% to 4,047 and bitcoin reclaimed 80,000 overnight.

Today is the season's hinge. The Fed announces at 18:00 UTC — a hold at 3.75–4.00% is about 90% priced, and with September inflation at 3.7% against 29,000 new jobs, the tail risk sits on the hike side, not the cut side. Hours later Microsoft, Alphabet and ServiceNow all report. Their grading windows open from tonight's close — set after the market has digested the Fed — and after a week in which five beats earned zero rewards, tonight asks whether the money that paid Celestica, Cadence and SK hynix is ready to pay the spenders again.

  1. Korea — SK hynix prints an 80% margin and a ₩100tn payout; Kospi +6.6% back through 6,000
  2. The receivers were paid again — Celestica +11.9%, Amkor +8.5%, Cadence +6.5% and above its paid line
  3. Semis vs software — the chip complex gained 3–5%, software sat out
  4. Closelooknet indices — Rubin bounces 3.5%, but 115 of 130 members are still losing strength
  5. Hyperscalers into the prints — Alphabet and Amazon bid, Meta still bleeding
  6. Vol and factors — VIX 17.5, momentum leads a second session, futures firm overnight
  7. Bitcoin reclaims 80,000; gold eases, yen at 158
  8. FOMC at 18:00 UTC — a hold is ~90% priced, and the tail risk is a hike
  9. Microsoft, Alphabet and ServiceNow report tonight — windows open from tonight's close
  10. Outside View — Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset Management

  1. Korea — SK hynix prints an 80% margin and a ₩100tn payout; Kospi +6.6% back through 6,000

    Structure
    What
    SK hynix reported record Q3 results before Seoul's open: revenue 104.6 trillion won, operating profit 83.3 trillion won (near-80% operating margin, vs ~76–77 trillion expected) on DRAM prices up high-twenties percent quarter-on-quarter — plus a ~100 trillion won (≈$75B) 2026 shareholder-return plan: ≥30tn in dividends, ≥60tn in buybacks, and a 20,000-won quarterly dividend including a Kioxia special. Net profit (~39.8tn) missed on FX and valuation losses; the market ignored it. SK hynix +10.9% to 1,487,000 won, Samsung Electronics +9.0% to 242,000, Kospi +6.63% to 6,012.44 — first close above 6,000 since the 13 October CXMT supply scare, with a buy-side sidecar halting program trading for a second straight day.
    If
    Taiwan's foundry chain and US memory names (Micron, SanDisk, the HBM complex) extend the move rather than fading it by the US close.
    Why
    Fifteen days ago the market sold the memory complex 6% through 6,000 on a fear about future Chinese supply; today it paid 6.6% for present pricing power. When a story and an income statement collide, the income statement is winning — for now.
    Then
    Samsung reports its full quarter and holds its earnings call tomorrow — the second half of the Korean memory verdict.

  2. The receivers were paid again — Celestica +11.9%, Amkor +8.5%, Cadence +6.5% and above its paid line

    Structure
    What
    Tuesday's session confirmed Monday evening's after-hours verdicts: Celestica, the AI server and rack assembler, held its post-print surge and closed +11.9% at 276.07; Amkor, the chip packager, +8.5%; Cadence, the design-software maker, +6.5% to 343.08 — about eleven dollars above the 331.84 line at which our method says the market paid for its report (entry 322.17, graded Thursday). The cohort around them ran too: Nebius +11.2%, CoreWeave +7.9%, Coherent +6.4%, Lumentum +5.9%, Fabrinet +5.5%.
    If
    Cadence finishes Thursday's grading above 331.84 — which would make it the first paid verdict among the mega-cap-adjacent prints this cycle after last week's zero-for-five slate.
    Why
    The same market that refused to pay five big-tech spenders for beating is paying the companies that collect AI spending as revenue — assembly, packaging, design software, optics, GPU clouds. One week has made the direction of rotation inside the AI trade explicit.
    Then
    The full slate of graded windows, entry lines and verdicts is on the print-record surface.
  3. The Print Record Beat histories against how the stock actually traded — one earnings name per day, all season. Open the Print Record →

  4. Semis vs software — the chip complex gained 3–5%, software sat out

    Structure
    What
    Chip ETFs led Tuesday across the board — XSD +4.7%, SOXX +3.9%, SMH +3.0% — while software barely participated: IGV +0.35%, cloud (CLOU) −0.85%. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 7,722.60, the Nasdaq-100 +1.3%.
    If
    Software reclaims daily leadership alongside semis — particularly if tonight's Microsoft and ServiceNow prints are paid.
    Why
    When semis pull this far ahead of software, the move is a hardware-cycle and memory-scarcity bid, not broad tech conviction — the rally is narrower than the index gain suggests.
    Then
    Tonight's three software-heavy reporters are the direct test of whether the gap closes or widens; see the Rubin build-out surface for the layer detail.

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C · point 11 · members

Today in line 11: the fifteen-day round trip from memory panic to an 80% operating margin — why SK hynix's 100-trillion-won payout plan is the receipt the spender-receiver rotation was waiting for, what a net-income miss the market ignored says about what it is actually grading, and why tonight's Microsoft, Alphabet and ServiceNow windows — opened from a post-Fed close — are the cleanest experiment this season will offer.

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