ASML Record Quarter, Sold Out Into 2028: Morning 10
ASML — record €11.7 billion quarter and sold out into 2028; inflation at 12:30 UTC
The Dutch chip-machine maker lifts its full-year range to €44–45 billion and says supply will fall short of demand in 2027 and 2028. It lands on a chip trade under pressure: Applied Materials −6.7% and Micron −3.6% on Tuesday. Asia is calm, with the Kospi flat at about 6,040.
In this edition
The Morning 10 Wed, Oct 14, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET
The ten points
ASML is the story this morning. The Dutch maker of chip-printing machines reported record third-quarter sales of €11.66 billion, up 55% on the year, raised the bottom of its full-year range to €44–45 billion, and said its planned output for 2027 and 2028 will not fully cover what customers want, as reported. Some customers are already asking about 2029 and 2030.
It lands on a chip trade under pressure. On Tuesday Applied Materials fell 6.7% after its investor day, Micron 3.6%, and ASML's US shares 1.9% to $1,717.76, 13.7% below their June high. Asia is calm after Tuesday's sell-off: the Kospi is flat at about 6,040, the Nikkei +0.6% and Taiwan +0.6%.
Two more tests come before New York closes: September consumer prices at 12:30 UTC, expected at 3.6% on the year, and Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock before the open, after Citigroup fell 5.6% on Tuesday despite a beat. The S&P 500 ended Tuesday flat at 7,805; futures are up 0.1%.
- ASML — record €11.7 billion quarter, full-year range lifted to €44–45 billion
- ASML — supply short of demand in 2027 and 2028; some customers already ask about 2029
- Chip equipment — Applied Materials −6.7%, KLA −3.2%, Lam −2.7% the day before ASML
- Inflation — September consumer prices at 12:30 UTC; the street expects 3.6% on the year
- Banks — Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock report before the open after Citi's −5.6%
- Korea — Kospi steadies at about 6,040 after Tuesday's −5.5%; SK Hynix −1%, Samsung +0.9%
- Tokyo and Taiwan — Nikkei +0.6%, SoftBank +2.5%, Kioxia −2.5%; Taiex +0.6%, China's CSI 300 −0.9%
- Wall Street — S&P 500 flat at 7,805; Oracle +4.2%, Meta +2.6%, energy fund +1.8%
- AI indices — Rubin −9.0% on the week, Agentic Winners +2.1%
- Oil, dollar and futures — Brent $106, dollar −0.4%; S&P 500 futures +0.1%
-
ASML — record €11.7 billion quarter, full-year range lifted to €44–45 billion
StructureASML
- What
- ASML reported third-quarter sales of €11.66 billion, up 55% on the year and a company record, with net income of €4.96 billion and a gross margin of 57.5%, as reported. Service and upgrades for machines already in the field (installed base) brought €3.3 billion, above the company's own guidance. For the fourth quarter ASML guides €14.2 to €15.2 billion. The full-year range moves to €44–45 billion from €43–45 billion — the third raise this year.
- If
- the fourth-quarter range holds when the shares open in Amsterdam at 07:00 UTC and the stock gains on the day
- Why
- the quarter landed roughly in line with the street; the reaction decides whether the market still trades the outlook rather than the beat
- Then
- the ASML page carries the price, the print history and the window that opens at tonight's close
-
ASML — supply short of demand in 2027 and 2028; some customers already ask about 2029
StructureASML
- What
- The bigger line is capacity. ASML now expects its planned machine output for both 2027 and 2028 to fall short of what customers want, and it is studying how to go beyond the 30% capacity increase it had outlined for 2028, as reported. Some customers are asking about orders for 2029 and 2030. The stock comes in weak: the US-listed shares closed Tuesday at $1,717.76, down 1.9%, and 13.7% below their closing high of $1,989.44 on 30 June. Since the start of 2026 ASML no longer publishes quarterly orders, so this capacity view is the closest thing to an order book the market gets.
- If
- the shares close above Monday's $1,750.24 after a day of trading the report
- Why
- a sold-out 2027 and 2028 answers the question hanging over the chip trade since Korea's memory sell-off — whether the spending on new factories continues
- Then
- the Print Record card has ASML's last ten reports: eight beats, but the two biggest drops came after beats
- Trade the Look The Compound — growth with no tech inside: the fourth wikifolio, in its test phase. See the wikifolio →
-
Chip equipment — Applied Materials −6.7%, KLA −3.2%, Lam −2.7% the day before ASML
StructureAMATKLACLRCXMU
- What
- Applied Materials fell 6.7% to $464.24 on Tuesday, its sixth loss in a row, after an investor day where its 2030 targets disappointed some buyers, as reported. KLA lost 3.2% and Lam Research 2.7%. The chip fund SOXX slipped 0.2% to 543.90 and Micron fell 3.6% to $953.19. The chip-machine makers had run hard this year; ASML's capacity comments this morning land on a group that was being sold into its report.
- If
- Applied Materials, KLA and Lam close higher today
- Why
- if ASML's sold-out message does not lift the equipment makers, the selling is about price and positioning, not demand
- Then
- Rubin 100 holds the equipment names in its manufacturing layer
C — free account
The free C account unlocks points 4 through 10 — the full morning read.
One tap with Google or one email — no password, no card. You are signed in until you sign out, on this browser, from then on.
Join the Look — freeAlready joined on this browser? The full edition shows automatically — if it doesn't, sign in again here. Looking for the archive, portfolios and realtime? That is C+.
C · point 11 · members
The privileged, actionable read — what we do, and at which level — is in point 11, for members only.
Join the Look — it’s freeFree members account · one click · the ten points stay free, always.
Further reading on Closelooknet
A daily overview, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading morning at 08:00 CET. See the Daily Pulse and today’s check-in.