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The Trading Day · Monday, October 26, 2026

Big Tech Week — Brazil ETF −15% on Lula's win, Musk calls a neocloud die-off, Kospi −1.5%; verdicts tonight

Friday complicated Thursday's clean story. The chips stabilised — SOXX +0.5%, SMH +0.7% — and software extended its bid, with the broad software ETF IGV up 1.7% and CLOU up 2.2%. But the AI users, Thursday's star cohort, gave a large part of it back: Accenture fell 3.6%, Cognizant 4.3%, Infosys 6.6%. The defensives that had caught Thursday's money sold too — staples −1.9%, health care −1.1%, utilities −0.7% — while energy rose 2.6% as the oil funds BNO (+3.0%) and USO (+4.3%) pushed to fresh 52-week highs on Gulf supply risk. The Nasdaq 100 closed flat, the S&P 500 lost 0.5%, and the VIX held 19.45.

The Morning 10

Big Tech Week — Brazil ETF −15% on Lula's win, Musk calls a neocloud die-off, Kospi −1.5%; verdicts tonight

  1. 1 Grading night — the five earnings windows close at tonight's US close
  2. 2 Brazil — Lula wins the runoff, and the unwind starts in Tokyo
  3. 3 Musk calls a neocloud die-off — while closing $40B for his own GPUs
  4. 4 Asia — the chip selling resumes after Friday's one-day truce
  5. 5 Friday's reversal — the AI users give back, software keeps the bid
  6. 6 Fed week — a pause expected after September's hike, with vol already elevated
  7. 7 Bitcoin under 80,000, gold holding 4,000 — both hedges on their round numbers
  8. 8 Closelooknet index family — the ladder's week, layer by layer
  9. 9 Calendar — Verizon this morning; Cadence and Celestica open big-tech week tonight
  10. 10 Outside view — Apollo: zero financial payoff, so far

Daily Pulse — AI Credit — Musk Calls a Neocloud Die-Off

On Sunday Elon Musk announced that SpaceX closed $40 billion of debt financing for GPUs — and in the same thread predicted that most of the 200-plus neocloud companies, the specialised landlords that rent out AI computing capacity, face failure and consolidation, because debt markets have shut for operators with no revenue outside AI data centers. CoreWeave and Nebius each fell 2.3% in overnight trading; CoreWeave has roughly halved in six months.

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