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The Trading Day · Thursday, October 1, 2026

Markets — Nasdaq +1.5% before the open even as TLT breaks 78; Tokyo +3.3% on Micron's record quarter

The fourth quarter opens on a green screen — even though long bonds just broke a key level. Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.5% before the US open, Tokyo's Nikkei closed up 3.29% at about 68,950, and Seoul's Kospi rose about 1%. The spark was Micron's report: a record quarter and a guide well above estimates, read as proof that AI spending is still accelerating. Chip-equipment makers in Tokyo and memory makers in Seoul led.

The Morning 10

Markets — Nasdaq +1.5% before the open even as TLT breaks 78; Tokyo +3.3% on Micron's record quarter

  1. 1 Risk-on — Nasdaq 100 futures +1.5%, Nikkei +3.29% on chip stocks, Kospi up about 1%
  2. 2 Micron — beat on every line, guided 8% above estimates; a stock that usually moves 11% is up 0.37%
  3. 3 Bonds — TLT closes at 77.78, below 78 at the close this time; seventh down day in a row
  4. 4 Rebalance done — Atlassian, Lenovo and Illumina give back weight as four indices reset to an equal share
  5. 5 AI Board — 110 of 126 Rubin names still losing strength, 34 of 40 Agentic Winners gaining
  6. 6 Software — ServiceNow +3.1%, Salesforce +1.9%, IGV +1.2%; chips mixed as Arm and ASML slip
  7. 7 Jabil — beat and raised, sank 10% to 286.86
  8. 8 Movers — Fair Isaac -4.1% to 592.47, below 600; Meta -1.8%, Eli Lilly -2.3%, Apple +1.1%
  9. 9 Oil — Brent fund BNO +2.3% after Tuesday's drop; gold -0.5%, silver -1.8%
  10. 10 Today — Accenture before the open, jobless claims and the factory survey, Nike after the close

The full Morning 10 →

Daily Pulse — Nasdaq — The Bad Season Is Over and a Record Is Close: Will the Midterm Rally Repeat?

The six weeks that usually hurt stocks the most are behind us, and the Nasdaq 100 did not get hurt: it rose 4.2% in August and 3.2% in September and closed Wednesday at 30,408.50, just 1.05% below its record of 22 September. Futures point to a gain of about 1.5% at Thursday's open, enough to set a new high. History says the next nine months are the best stretch of the four-year cycle: since 1986 the Nasdaq 100 rose from the end of September of a midterm year to the following June in all ten cases, by 31% on average. The question is whether 2026 is a normal midterm year. The two midterm years with a bad final quarter, 2018 and 2022, were years when the Fed was raising rates — and two Fed voters are talking about a hike again.

The full Pulse →

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