Buy the Dip, or the Rotation at Last?

The Morning 10

1. 1 Overnight & pre-market — the split re-asserts
2. 2 Earnings season opens
3. 3 Financials vs. Technology (semis)
4. 4 Software vs. Semis — the key dispersion
5. 5 AI Build-Out Layers — Memory & Packaging
6. 6 Scanner — Support-Confluence Cluster
7. 7 Dollar (UUP) & Gold (GLD)
8. 8 Rubin 100 vs. HALO 100
9. 9 Euro-AI 50
10. 10 Outside view — Dan Niles

The full Morning 10 →

Daily Pulse — Buy the Dip, or the Rotation at Last?

Monday looked like buy-the-dip — the semis bounced hard off their double-bottom and the old winners reclaimed. The pre-market tells the other story: Asia soft, the Nasdaq trailing, and Korea dropping sharply as Samsung and SK Hynix sell off despite a strong Samsung print. When memory can't rally on good news, the marginal buyer is gone. This is the week the SOXX 554 double-bottom gets tested — reclaim it and the old winners carry into earnings; lose it and the rotation into HALO, the agentic winners and the low-vol cohort is real, and it starts before the first prints mid-July. We hold both and let the line decide. Diary framing, not advice.

The full Pulse →

Published that day

• Heresy — The Haystack and the Needle — Closelook Heresy XII

On the tape

• Money Temperature · Risk-on rally — 1 heating / 3 cooling
• Cross-asset day: VIX 16.1, DXY 101.08, 10Y 4.48% — risk-on regime
• Euro-AI 50 · 1-month leaders — ATS.VI +44.74% / ARM -21.75%
• Euro-AI 50 · Daily leaders — OVH.PA +7.84% / BESI.AS -5.49%
• HALO 100 · 1-month leaders — ELF +41.35% / ENPH -35.45%
• HALO 100 · 1-month sector leaders — FOOD +17.04% / ENERGY -19.80%
• HALO 100 · Sector flow — ENERGY +2.90% / FOOD -3.88%
• HALO 100 · Daily leaders — SHLS +6.33% / 012450.KS -8.00%