Directional Alpha: 51 Patterns for Prediction Market Trading
Directional Alpha is Closelook's systematic framework for trading prediction markets — platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Metaculus where you bet on real-world outcomes rather than stock prices. The framework identifies 51 tradable patterns across 10 categories (Fundamental, Technical, Catalyst, Behavioral, Structural, Temporal, Reference Pricing, Insurance, Elliott Wave, Chart Patterns). The core thesis: European-based traders have a systematic information advantage on European political and economic events that US-focused prediction market algorithms misprice.
The European Edge
Most prediction market liquidity is US-based. Algorithms pricing European events — German coalition formation, ECB rate decisions, Bundesliga match outcomes — rely on English-language sources and US-centric models. A trader who reads German-language political analysis, understands the mechanics of coalition mathematics, or follows Pinnacle line movements for Bundesliga has a structural edge that's difficult for algorithms to replicate.
Closelook is built on this thesis. German-language sources, European political knowledge, and Bundesliga analytics (via the Akte Bundesliga network) create information asymmetries that translate directly into prediction market alpha.
The 10 Pattern Categories
The 51 patterns span from simple fundamentals (consensus deviation, insider clustering) through technical signals (mean reversion, momentum) to structural edges (regulatory front-running, calendar effects, information cascade identification). Each pattern is scored for confidence and expected edge, then matched to the platform with the best execution (Kalshi for US-regulated markets, Polymarket for crypto-settled markets).