Scenario
Recession shock — Broad risk-off on growth fears; the S&P (SPY) falls over a quarter.
Portfolio impact
A portfolio with this exposure would have an estimated move of -24.6% under this scenario (driver: SPY -20% (scenario assumption), applied via each holding's downside beta to SPY).
Contributions
| Holding | Weight | Beta-implied shock | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | 30% | -27.0% | -8.1% |
| QQQ | 30% | -21.9% | -6.6% |
| SOXX | 20% | -27.9% | -5.6% |
| IGV | 20% | -21.9% | -4.4% |
Vulnerabilities
Largest negative contributors: SMH (-8.1%), QQQ (-6.6%), SOXX (-5.6%). Concentration: QQQ is 30% of the book; SMH is 30% of the book.
Possible adjustments
Common ways investors reduce exposure to a recession shock include trimming the highest-beta names and adding lower-beta or defensive exposure. Position sizing and any changes remain the investor's own decision.
Reality check
A single-factor, downside-beta estimate with a scenario-assumption shock — directional only, not a prediction or personalized advice. Betas and shock sizes shift across regimes.