Scenario
AI / Tech de-rating — The AI / large-cap-tech trade de-rates; the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) falls.
Portfolio impact
A portfolio with this exposure would have an estimated move of -17.1% under this scenario (driver: QQQ -15% (scenario assumption), applied via each holding's downside beta to QQQ).
Contributions
| Holding | Weight | Beta-implied shock | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | 30% | -18.8% | -5.6% |
| QQQ | 30% | -15.0% | -4.5% |
| SOXX | 20% | -19.4% | -3.9% |
| IGV | 20% | -15.2% | -3.0% |
Vulnerabilities
Largest negative contributors: SMH (-5.6%), QQQ (-4.5%), SOXX (-3.9%). Concentration: QQQ is 30% of the book; SMH is 30% of the book.
Possible adjustments
Common ways investors reduce exposure to a tech de-rating shock include trimming the highest-beta names and adding lower-beta or defensive exposure. Position sizing and any changes remain the investor's own decision.
Reality check
A single-factor, downside-beta estimate with a scenario-assumption shock — directional only, not a prediction or personalized advice. Betas and shock sizes shift across regimes.