Global Markets · · 13 min read
Oil Jumps 9%, Yields Hit Decade Highs, and the Jobs Report Splits Tech in Two
Korea, Taiwan and Brazil led the world, Europe lagged, and the bond market did the talking all week.
Edition · September 5, 2026 · KW36
The bond market opened September and never gave the floor back. Japan’s ten-year closed above 3% for the first time since 1996, Germany’s Bund touched its highest since 2011, the US ten-year hit 4.81% on Wednesday, and crude climbed more than 9% on the week after the US and Iran exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz. Equities absorbed all of it and finished roughly flat in the US, up 1.2% outside it, and the Friday jobs report, 162,000 against a consensus near 53,000, sent chips up 3% and software down 2% in a single session.
(1) This Week’s Action
The biggest risk tell was not in stocks. It was oil above $90 and the yen through 160 on the same Tuesday, the combination that turns a yield drift into an inflation worry and puts the 1997 transmission channel, dollar-and-rates pressure on Asia, back on the table. The biggest macro tell came on Friday morning: payrolls at three times the consensus with 55,000 of upward revisions, unemployment at 4.1%, participation at 61.6%. The two-year yield jumped to 4.43%, hike odds for the 16 September meeting moved back above 58%, and the market re-priced duration in a single session. Long-duration assets lost, gold down 1.2% and bitcoin down 2% on the day, and cyclicals won: Nvidia and Caterpillar were the strongest shares in the Dow, Apple and Microsoft the weakest.
Cross-Asset Snapshot
| Asset Class | Ticker | Close | WoW % | MoM % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities (US LC) | SPY | 770.19 | 🟦 +0.1% | 🟦 +0.2% | 🟢 +12.9% |
| Equities (US Tech) | QQQ | 718.96 | 🟦 +0.4% | 🟦 +0.6% | 🟢 +17.0% |
| Equities (ex-US) | VEU | 86.41 | 🟢 +1.2% | 🟢 +2.4% | 🟢 +17.5% |
| Equities (World) | VT | 161.73 | 🟦 +0.5% | 🟢 +1.1% | 🟢 +14.7% |
| Bonds (Long US Treasury) | TLT | 82.21 | 🟦 −0.8% | 🟦 −0.4% | 🟥 −5.7% |
| Gold | GLD | 406.77 | 🟦 −0.5% | 🟢 +4.4% | 🟢 +2.6% |
| Oil (WTI proxy) | USO | 141.96 | 🟢 +9.5% | 🟢 +19.4% | 🟢 +105.3% |
| Copper miners | COPX | 90.66 | 🟥 −4.0% | 🟢 +5.3% | 🟢 +26.3% |
| USD proxy | UUP | 28.08 | 🟦 −0.4% | 🟦 −0.4% | 🟢 +3.9% |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | IBIT | 45.23 | 🟢 +3.0% | 🟢 +24.0% | 🟥 −8.9% |
Oil led and copper diverged: the WTI proxy gained 9.5% while copper miners lost 4%, which is a supply shock, not a growth signal. Ex-US equities beat the US for the week, 1.2% against 0.1%, and the world index sat between them. Bitcoin rose 3% to its highest close in almost four months while gold slipped, the same trade reading two different inputs. Risk-on in equities, risk-off in duration. The week was not a rotation out of risk, it was a repricing of time.
(2) Macro Setup
Macro table as gathered Friday 11:40 UTC, before the US session. Friday’s moves are in the text.
| Instrument | Ticker | Value | WoW | MoM | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | UUP.US | 28.01 | −0.04% | −0.28% | 🟦 |
| VIX | VIX.INDX | 14.23 | −1.39% | −6.07% | 🟥 |
| VVIX | VVIX.INDX | 83.80 | +1.09% | −7.32% | 🟢 |
| VXN | VXN.INDX | 20.16 | −0.40% | −16.52% | 🟦 |
| MOVE | MOVE.INDX | 74.68 | +6.90% | +1.49% | 🟢 |
| GOLD | GLD.US | 410.22 | −2.93% | +5.28% | 🟥 |
| BTC | BTC-USD.CC | 80,912.71 | +4.18% | +28.48% | 🟢 |
| TLT | TLT.US | 82.07 | −1.28% | −1.12% | 🟥 |
| US2Y | DGS2 | 4.34% | +14bp | — | 🟢 |
| US10Y | DGS10 | 4.77% | +10bp | — | 🟦 |
| US30Y | DGS30 | 5.25% | +6bp | — | 🟦 |
| US10Y_2Y | T10Y2Y | 0.41% | +2bp | — | 🟦 |
| US5Y_BE | T5YIE | 2.37% | +7bp | — | 🟦 |
| US10Y_BE | T10YIE | 2.35% | +4bp | — | 🟦 |
“MOVE bond-vol spiked +6.9% to 74.7 — rate-vol stress signal” “US 2y Treasury yield jumped +14bp to 4.34% on the week” “Bitcoin climbed +4.2% to $80,913”
The global driver was the bond market, and the bond market had three inputs at once. Oil above $90 after the weekend’s US-Iran fighting and two tankers reported hit near Hormuz. Three central banks leaning toward hikes this month: Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata said hikes may need to become “continuous” rather than twice a year, the Fed’s Christopher Waller cut hike odds to a coin flip on Thursday only for Friday’s payrolls to push them back above 58%, and the ECB meets on Thursday. And a $40 trillion US debt pile competing with the AI build-out for the same capital. Bond volatility, the MOVE index, was the one fear gauge that rose while the VIX fell to 14. Equity investors were calm. Bond investors were not.
(3) Weekly Signal Scorecard — Global Track
FTSE Global ex-US, BTC, Gold, TLT. Tag rules: 🟢 ≥ 80 · 🟡 50-79 · 🔴 < 50.
| Instrument | Scope | Macro | Liq | Trend | Part | Breadth | Vol | Sent | Mom | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | global | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | us_stocks | — | — | 46 | — | — | 76 | — | 49 | 🟡 56 |
| SMH | us_stocks | — | — | 33 | — | — | 51 | — | 40 | 🔴 40 |
| Gold | global | — | — | 53 | — | — | 56 | — | 48 | 🟡 53 |
| TLT | global | — | — | 44 | — | — | 69 | — | 46 | 🟡 53 |
| FTSE Global ex-US | global | — | — | 53 | — | — | 78 | — | 51 | 🟡 61 |
The scorecard puts ex-US equities on top at 61, the only instrument with a volatility read near 80, and both hedge assets, gold and long Treasuries, at an identical 53 with trend scores below 55. That is the divergence: the world equity index is being scored as a calm uptrend while the two classic hedges are being scored as neither hedging nor trending. Semiconductors at 40 are the outlier below the line, a trend score of 33 after two and a half months of lower highs. Friday’s 3% chip rally is not in that number yet.
(4) Regional Equity — Country Map
Europe / Asia-Pacific / EM via US-listed country ETFs, all USD-denominated.
| Region | ETF | Native Index | Close | WoW % | MoM % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | EWG | DAX | 43.89 | 🟥 −1.6% | 🟦 +0.9% | 🟢 +3.3% |
| Europe | FEZ | Euro Stoxx 50 | 70.65 | 🟦 −1.0% | 🟦 −0.8% | 🟢 +9.7% |
| Europe | EWQ | CAC 40 | 45.69 | 🟥 −1.1% | 🟥 −4.0% | 🟢 +1.6% |
| Europe | EWP | Ibex 35 | 62.75 | 🟦 +0.6% | 🟦 +0.7% | 🟢 +16.4% |
| Europe | EWN | AEX | 69.11 | 🟦 +0.9% | 🟦 +0.8% | 🟢 +21.2% |
| Europe | EWL | Swiss Market (SMI) | 63.13 | 🟦 −0.3% | 🟦 −0.9% | 🟢 +5.3% |
| Europe | EWU | FTSE 100 | 48.59 | 🟦 +0.08% | 🟦 +0.6% | 🟢 +10.5% |
| Asia-Pacific | EWJ | Nikkei 225 / Topix | 98.28 | 🟢 +2.5% | 🟢 +3.3% | 🟢 +21.7% |
| Asia-Pacific | EWY | Kospi 200 / Composite | 188.87 | 🟢 +4.8% | 🟢 +15.1% | 🟢 +94.3% |
| Asia-Pacific | EWT | Taiwan Weighted | 112.18 | 🟢 +4.0% | 🟢 +10.0% | 🟢 +76.6% |
| Asia-Pacific | EWA | ASX 200 / All Ordinaries | 30.23 | 🟦 +0.8% | 🟦 +0.2% | 🟢 +15.4% |
| Asia-Pacific | ENZL | NZX 50 | 48.02 | 🟦 +0.7% | 🟦 +0.7% | 🟢 +6.1% |
| EM | INDA | Nifty 50 | 49.91 | 🟦 +0.7% | 🟦 −0.4% | 🟥 −7.7% |
| EM | EWH | Hang Seng | 23.20 | 🟢 +1.1% | 🟢 +3.2% | 🟢 +9.2% |
| EM | FXI | Hang Seng China Enterprises | 35.88 | 🟢 +1.0% | 🟦 −0.2% | 🟥 −6.3% |
| EM | ASHR | CSI 300 | 34.20 | 🟦 −0.3% | 🟥 −1.5% | 🟢 +4.1% |
| EM | EWZ | Brazil Bovespa | 37.86 | 🟢 +6.5% | 🟢 +5.7% | 🟢 +19.2% |
| EM | EWW | Mexican Bolsa IPC | 76.63 | 🟦 +0.2% | 🟦 +0.00% | 🟢 +10.5% |
| EM | EIDO | Jakarta Composite | 13.06 | 🟢 +3.2% | 🟢 +3.6% | 🟥 −30.2% |
| EM | THD | Thailand SET50 | 73.39 | 🟢 +1.5% | 🟦 +0.7% | 🟢 +23.0% |
Brazil and Korea led the world, up 6.5% and 4.8% in dollar terms, with Taiwan close behind at 4%: the two chip economies rallied into Friday’s semiconductor bid, and Brazil got the oil price. Germany and France lost the most, down 1.6% and 1.1%, with the DAX weighed by its defense names and the Euro Stoxx 50 down a full percent. The currency effect cut both ways: the yen’s three-day recovery from 160 to 156 flattered Japan’s 2.5% in dollars, while a dollar index near 99 after three losing days gave every ex-US line a small tailwind. Korea is now up 94% for the year in dollars, Taiwan 77%, and a hot US jobs number just told both markets the order book is bigger than they had priced.
(5) Currency Snapshot
The pipeline’s currency table still waits on the EODHD forex feed. This week’s reads from the daily editions:
| Pair | Week’s tell |
|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Crossed 160 on Tuesday, the door this diary has watched since July’s intervention. Back to 156 by Friday after BoJ’s Takata talked “continuous” hikes. |
| DXY | Near 99, three straight losing days into Friday. Bought on the Fed-hike story and the oil story early in the week, sold once Waller opened the door. |
| UUP | 28.08, −0.4% on the week. |
The dollar’s direction was down, but only just, and the story was entirely the yen. Dollar-yen through 160 on Tuesday, with Morgan Stanley noting that more than half of July’s record intervention effect had already faded, then a three-day yen rally to 156, its strongest run since that intervention, once the Bank of Japan signalled a faster hiking path. At 156 the BoJ meets this month with a hike already priced. A move back toward 160 revives the intervention talk, and with it the 1997 question.
(6) Euro-AI Sovereign 50 — Top 5 / Bottom 5
Index and constituent data through Thursday’s European close; Friday’s session is not yet in the worker.
| Variant | Name | Close | WoW % | MoM % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL-EUROAI-EW | Euro-AI Sovereign 50 (Equal Weight) | 1,289.25 | 🟥 −3.4% | 🟥 −1.5% | 🟢 +28.9% |
| CL-EUROAI-CW | Euro-AI Sovereign 50 (Cap Weight) | 1,188.43 | 🟥 −3.7% | 🟥 −2.7% | — |
| CL-EUROAI-MW | Euro-AI Sovereign 50 (Momentum Weighted) | 1,231.24 | 🟥 −3.3% | 🟥 −2.2% | — |
| Ticker | Name | Sector | WoW % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top | ATS.VI | AT&S | Semi | +12.7% |
| Top | YAR.OL | Yara International | Industrial | +4.4% |
| Top | NBIS | Nebius Group | Chip | +3.6% |
| Top | BAS.DE | BASF | Industrial | +3.6% |
| Top | LR.PA | Legrand | Power | +3.3% |
| Bottom | PATH | UiPath | Enterprise | −17.1% |
| Bottom | RHM.DE | Rheinmetall | Defense | −11.9% |
| Bottom | NEM.DE | Nemetschek | Industrial | −11.5% |
| Bottom | HAG.DE | Hensoldt | Defense | −10.7% |
| Bottom | DSY.PA | Dassault Systèmes | Enterprise | −8.9% |
The European AI basket lost 3.4% equal-weight and the loss had two clusters. Defense was the worst sector at −6.9% on average, Rheinmetall −11.9% and Hensoldt −10.7%, and enterprise software the second at −3.9%, UiPath −17.1% and Dassault −8.9%, the European echo of the software sell-off that hit the US names all week. The winners were the physical layer: AT&S, the Austrian substrate maker, +12.7%, and the semiconductor cluster the only one in the green at +0.2%. Same duration split as in the US, one week earlier and in euros.
(7) Money Temperature — Global
Money Temperature closed the week at 55, up from 49 at midweek and back in the Transition band, with the regime read “Risk-on rally” at high confidence. The spread underneath is the whole week in one line: risk appetite +28 and speculation +9, duration −28. Money is moving into equities and out of long bonds at the same time, which is what the payrolls number, the oil price and the yield march would each predict on their own.
(8) Cointegration — Cross-Asset Pairs
Six of the seven monitored pairs read BREAKING at Friday’s close, only gold-dollar holds at STRETCHING. The pair that matters for next week is bitcoin-versus-Nasdaq: the spread sits 2.25 standard deviations wide with bitcoin at a four-month high and the Nasdaq-100 flat on the week, the canary pair no longer singing the same tune. The second is US-versus-rest-of-world at 1.3 standard deviations in favour of the world, which is the country map above expressed as one number. Software-versus-semis at 1.1 is the one Friday started to close.
(9) Bond Markets — 10y Yields
Country table waits on the FRED and EODHD index feeds. The week’s prints from the daily editions:
| Country | 10y Yield (week) | What it was |
|---|---|---|
| US | 4.81% Wed high, 4.77% Fri | Highest since November 2023 |
| DE | 3.38% | Highest since April 2011 |
| UK | just under 5.0% | — |
| JP | above 3.00% | First close above 3% since 1996 |
The global yield move and the equity read disagreed on one thing: whether this is growth or supply. Bonds sold on the supply-and-inflation story, oil, hike-leaning central banks, a $40 trillion US debt pile. Stocks bought Friday’s number as a growth story. Japan is the place where the two collide: a ten-year above 3% with the yen at 156 and the BoJ hiking is a tightening cycle in a market that has not seen one in a generation. The US ten-year easing to 4.77% into Friday’s close, off Wednesday’s 4.81% high, says the bond market is at least willing to listen.
(10) Commodities
| Commodity | ETF proxy | Close | WoW % | MoM % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | GLD | 406.77 | 🟦 −0.5% | 🟢 +4.4% | 🟢 +2.6% |
| WTI Crude | USO | 141.96 | 🟢 +9.5% | 🟢 +19.4% | 🟢 +105.3% |
| Copper miners | COPX | 90.66 | 🟥 −4.0% | 🟢 +5.3% | 🟢 +26.3% |
| Silver | SLV | 59.82 | 🟦 −0.3% | 🟢 +7.1% | 🟥 −7.1% |
Crude rose 9.5% on the week, WTI from $83 to above $91 with Brent near $96, after the US and Iran exchanged fire again and two tankers were reported hit near the Strait of Hormuz. The producers did not follow: the energy sector ETF gained 2.2%, a fifth of the commodity’s move, the market distinguishing between the price of oil and the economics of pumping it. Copper miners lost 4% into a hot growth number, which reads as positioning, not demand. Gold gave back Thursday’s rally on Friday and finished half a percent lower on the week, its fourth-month gain intact at +4.4%.
(11) Geopolitics
The US-Iran exchange of fire on Tuesday, with two tankers reported hit near the Strait of Hormuz, moved oil above $90 and stayed the week’s dominant macro input through the yield channel. In Germany, the DAX’s slide carried an AfD-linked political discount on top of the defense sell-off. Neither is speculation; both are in the prices above.
(12) Closing — What We Will Watch
Four dates decide the next fortnight. The ECB meets on Thursday 10 September, hosted this time by the Bundesbank, with the Bund at a 2011 high. US producer prices come Thursday and consumer prices Friday 11 September, the number Waller said he is waiting for and the one that sets the 16 September Fed decision; hike odds closed the week above 58%. The Fed’s quiet period began on Saturday. In between, Oracle reports Tuesday and Adobe Thursday, the two prints that will tell whether Friday’s software sell-off was a duration trade or a verdict. And the yen: 156 is the line, 160 is the door.
Source: EODHD All-World EOD · FRED Macro Series · Closelook Country-ETF-Mapping · KW36/2026 · Auto-generated tables via Cowork pipeline · Editorial by Thomas Look.
Currency note: All ETFs are USD-denominated. Native-index returns differ under large FX moves.
Disclaimer: Look Investment GmbH is not a BaFin-licensed investment advisor. All content is investment-diary framing for educational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter is investment advice.