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AI Trade Sells in Asia, India Rises; Bitcoin, Gold Slip

AI Trade — Japan, Korea, Taiwan fall, India rises; Bitcoin under 80,000, gold under 4,000, TLT above 81.50

The money left the AI trade, not the market. Overnight the three markets most tied to AI hardware fell together, the Kospi down 3.5%, Taiwan 2.5% and the Nikkei 2.1% after the Bank of Japan held at 1.25% and more than doubled the pace of its ETF sales, while India's Nifty 50 rose 0.7% and Hong Kong 1.5%. Bonds were bought: the long-Treasury fund TLT traded back above 81.50 after hours and the 10-year yield fell to about 4.91%. The two assets that usually claim the safe-haven role were not: Bitcoin is back under 80,000 at about 78,200 and gold trades under 4,000, a level it last closed below in July. On Wall Street the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 1.2% while the standard index slipped 0.3%, as health care, real estate and staples gained and communications, tech and software fell. Two reports after the close added to it: Intel fell 23% after hours on a weak outlook and Amazon 7% on its cash burn. Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.9%.

In this edition

RSP XLV XLRE XLP XLU XLF XLC XLK

The Morning 10 Fri, Oct 30, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

The ten points

The money left the AI trade, not the stock market. On Thursday the S&P 500 slipped 0.30% to 7,720.39 and the Nasdaq-100 fell 1.38% to 29,402.51, but the equal-weight S&P 500 fund RSP rose 1.20% and small caps gained 0.97%, so the average stock went up. Health care (XLV +2.40%), real estate (XLRE +2.21%), staples (XLP +1.54%), utilities (XLU +1.53%) and financials (XLF +1.44%) led, while communications (XLC −1.87%), technology (XLK −1.18%) and software (IGV −3.52%) trailed. The low-volatility fund SPLV rose 1.67% as the momentum fund SPMO fell 1.73%.

After the bell, two AI reports pushed the selling further. Intel fell 23.0% after hours on a fourth-quarter outlook far under expectations, and Amazon 7.3% as its capital spending kept free cash flow negative. Nasdaq-100 futures were down 1.9% at 07:22 UTC. Thursday's US data was strong, with third-quarter GDP growing at a 3.4% rate and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge up 3.6% from a year earlier, yet bonds were bought: TLT traded at 81.73 after hours, back above 81.50, and the 10-year yield fell to about 4.91% in Tokyo trade.

Asia split along the same line this morning. The Kospi fell 3.48%, Taiwan 2.49% and the Nikkei 2.12% after the Bank of Japan held at 1.25% and raised its yearly ETF sales to ¥860 billion from ¥330 billion, while India's Nifty 50 rose 0.7% in midday trade and the Hang Seng 1.5%. Bitcoin is back under 80,000 at about 78,200 and gold under 4,000. Today brings euro-area GDP at 10:00 UTC, the Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, and Exxon Mobil, Chevron and AbbVie before the open.

  1. Asia — Japan, Korea and Taiwan fall with the AI trade, India and Hong Kong rise
  2. Bonds — TLT back above 81.50 as the 10-year yield falls to about 4.91%
  3. Bitcoin and Gold — Bitcoin back under 80,000, gold under 4,000
  4. Wall Street — the average stock rose 1.2% while the S&P 500 fell; futures down 1.9%
  5. Sectors and Factors — health care, real estate and staples up, software and communications down
  6. AI Indices — Rubin +6.6% on the week, but most of its names are still losing strength
  7. Earnings — Intel −23% and Amazon −7% after hours put a price on the AI bill
  8. Earnings Week — where the grades stand before Monday and Tuesday
  9. Today — euro-area GDP, Chicago PMI, Exxon Mobil and Chevron before the open
  10. Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset Management

  1. Asia — Japan, Korea and Taiwan fall with the AI trade, India and Hong Kong rise

    Structure
    What
    The three markets most tied to AI hardware fell together this morning. The Kospi lost 3.48% to 5,730.74, two sessions after jumping 6.63% to 6,012.44; Taiwan fell 2.49% to 45,211.83; and the Nikkei fell 2.12% to 63,290.11, ending a three-day run of gains. The markets with little AI hardware rose: India's Nifty 50 was up 0.7% at 23,099.60 in midday trade, the Hang Seng up 1.5% at 23,311.09 in afternoon trade, and Australia's ASX 200 closed up 0.18%. On Thursday the US-listed Korea fund EWY had already fallen 2.46% and the Taiwan fund EWT 2.71%, while the India fund INDA rose 1.33%. The Bank of Japan held at 1.25% by an 8–1 vote, with board member Hajime Takata voting for 1.5%, raised its inflation forecast, and will sell its stock ETFs at ¥860 billion a year, up from ¥330 billion. Dollar-yen stands at 157.56.
    If
    Korea and Taiwan hold this morning's levels next week while India keeps rising, which would confirm a rotation by AI exposure rather than a one-day reaction.
    Why
    Asia split by how much AI hardware sits in each index, not by region. For a decade the Bank of Japan was one of the steadiest buyers of Japanese stocks; it is now a faster seller, on the same morning the AI trade was being sold.
    Then
    The Bank of Japan's next decision is in December; before the meeting a Bloomberg survey had 83% of economists expecting a hike then.

  2. Bonds — TLT back above 81.50 as the 10-year yield falls to about 4.91%

    Context
    What
    TLT, the fund that holds long-dated Treasuries, closed Thursday at 81.49, up 0.62%, and traded at 81.73 after hours, back above the 81.50 line it had closed over on 22, 26 and 27 October before falling to 80.99 on Fed day. It sits above its 50-day average near 80.51 and well under its 200-day near 84.65; it closed at 77.11 on 5 October. The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than seven basis points in Tokyo trade to about 4.91%, the 2-year to about 4.57%. IEF rose 0.44% on Thursday. The US data argued the other way: third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate against 3.2% expected, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge rose 3.6% from a year earlier in September, core 3.1%, both in line. CME FedWatch readings on Thursday put a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed's 8–9 December meeting at between about 80% and 86%; no cut is priced.
    If
    TLT closes above 81.50 today, winning back the Fed-day loss on a closing basis.
    Why
    Bonds rallying through strong growth data and a central bank leaning toward a hike means the buyers are not betting on easier policy. They are choosing the one safe asset that pays close to 5%. Credit stayed calm, with high-yield bonds (HYG) flat and investment-grade (LQD) up 0.14%, so the move is a search for safety, not a sign of stress in company borrowing.
    Then
    The 200-day average near 84.65 marks how far the four-week bond rally still sits inside a longer decline.
  3. Trade the Look AI Cycle 2030 — capex, opex, applications: the three-phase AI cycle, run as a wikifolio. See the wikifolio →

  4. Bitcoin and Gold — Bitcoin back under 80,000, gold under 4,000

    Context
    What
    Bitcoin closed Thursday's UTC day at 77,775, down 4.3% from 81,268, its first daily close under 80,000 since 17 September. It had held that line on a closing basis through four dips below it between 24 and 27 October. The overnight low was 76,418, after reports of a hack at Binance, and it trades at about 78,200 at 07:40 UTC. Gold futures trade at 3,994.90 against Thursday's 4,031.40 close, with a low of 3,987.60. Gold dipped under 4,000 during the sessions of 23 and 26 October but closed above it both times; its last close below 4,000 was on 16 July. It stands about 25% under its 29 January peak close of 5,318.40.
    If
    Bitcoin closes a second day under 80,000 and gold closes under 4,000, turning this week's dips into breaks.
    Why
    Neither Bitcoin nor gold pays interest. With the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan all leaning toward higher rates this week, the money looking for safety is choosing Treasuries and the yen, not the two assets that usually claim the safe-haven role.
    Then
    Gold's close today decides whether 4,000 breaks for the first time since July.

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C · point 11 · members

Today in line 11: four places to look for where the money went, and all four gave the same answer. Why the average US stock rose on a day the index fell, why Asia split by AI exposure rather than by region, why strong US data could not stop bonds from rallying, why Bitcoin and gold lost their round numbers while Treasuries were bought, and how Intel and Amazon turned the AI bill into a market-wide trade.

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