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Kospi +4%, SK Hynix +7%, Kioxia +9% on GPT-6; Gold Slides

Kospi jumps 4% on OpenAI’s new model: SK hynix +7%, Kioxia +9%, SoftBank +10% — while gold and bitcoin slide on the rate-hike odds

Wall Street is closed for Labor Day, so Monday belongs to Asia, and Asia is buying chips and selling software. Seoul is up 4.2% to 6,965, Tokyo 2.0% to 66,315, Taipei 1.6% to 47,300 on the idea that OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra means more memory chips: SK hynix +7.4%, Samsung +5.0%, Kioxia +9.3%, Tokyo Electron +4.7%. Hong Kong is down 0.9%, and our Asian AI software names are getting sold, freee −8%, Money Forward −7%, Z.ai −4.6%. Friday’s strong US jobs report keeps the pressure on everything that hates higher rates: gold futures −1.4% near $4,480, bitcoin just under $80,000, the chance of a Fed hike next week near 60%. Brent is $96 after the US and Iran traded strikes over the weekend.

In this edition

000660.KS 005930.KS 285A.T 8035.T 6857.T 2330.TW 2513.HK 0268.HK

The Morning 10 Mon, Sep 7, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

The ten points

With New York shut for Labor Day, the only tape moving on Monday is Asia’s, and by mid-session it is moving in two clear directions. Chip stocks in Seoul, Tokyo and Taipei are rallying hard on OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, the new model released last Thursday that Wall Street read as a fresh order book for memory chips: the Kospi is up 4.2% at 6,965, its first time above 6,900 since the late-August sell-off, the Nikkei 225 is up 2.0% at 66,315 and Taiwan’s benchmark 1.6% at 47,300. SK hynix is up 7.4%, Samsung 5.0%, Kioxia 9.3%, SoftBank 10.1%, and the Japanese equipment names that were sold last week on US yields are back: Tokyo Electron +4.7%, Lasertec +7.1%, Kokusai Electric +8.0%.

The other direction is everything that is not a chip. Hong Kong is down 0.9%. The Asian AI software names in our Agentic Winners 40 are being sold after a monster August: freee −8.2%, Money Forward −7.1%, Appier −3.7%, Kingdee −5.2%; Z.ai, the one name in our Foundation Models sub-index, is down 4.6%. And Friday’s US jobs report keeps pushing on the rate-sensitive assets: 162,000 jobs against 53,000 expected lifted the chance of a Federal Reserve hike on September 16 from a coin flip to almost 60%, gold futures are down 1.4% near $4,480, bitcoin sits just under $80,000, and the dollar holds 156 yen. Oil is the exception, with Brent at $96 after the US destroyed three Iranian tankers over the weekend in response to missile fire at two Navy ships.

For our own boards this is the same split Friday produced in New York, chips up and software down, now running unopposed in Asia. The question for Tuesday, when Wall Street reopens, is whether chips can keep rising into a rate hike, or whether that only works while the bond market is closed.

  1. Seoul +4.2%, Tokyo +2.0%, Taipei +1.6%: Asia’s chip stocks rally on OpenAI’s GPT-6
  2. Hong Kong is the odd one out: Hang Seng −0.9%, Z.ai −4.6%, Kingdee −5.2%, but ASMPT +5.2%
  3. Friday on Wall Street: jobs beat by 3×, hike odds jump to ~60%, stocks slip — but chips rose 3.4%; futures flat this morning
  4. Gold futures −1.4% near $4,480, spot under $4,400 — the 2026 gain is gone
  5. Bitcoin just under $80,000: $79,850 this morning after $81,491 on Thursday
  6. Currencies: dollar holds 156 yen, won near a two-year high, euro $1.161
  7. Brent $96, up 0.8%: the US destroys three Iranian tankers after missiles target two Navy ships
  8. Our Asian chip names this morning: Kioxia +9.3%, Kokusai +8.0%, Ibiden +7.3%, SK hynix +7.4%, Lasertec +7.1% — 30 of 35 higher
  9. Asia sells software: freee −8.2%, Money Forward −7.1%, Kingdee −5.2%, Appier −3.7% after a 55% August
  10. This week: Wall Street reopens Tuesday with Broadcom, Snowflake and HPE getting their grades, Oracle reports, US inflation Friday

  1. Seoul +4.2%, Tokyo +2.0%, Taipei +1.6%: Asia’s chip stocks rally on OpenAI’s GPT-6

    Context

    000660.KS005930.KS285A.T8035.T6857.T2330.TW

    What
    As of 05:45 UTC the Kospi is up 4.2% at 6,965, from Friday’s close of 6,687, with foreign and institutional investors net buyers of roughly 3 trillion won combined while retail investors sell. SK hynix is up 7.4% at 1,769,000 won, Samsung Electronics 5.0% at 268,250, Hanmi Semiconductor 4.3%. The Nikkei 225 is up 2.0% at 66,315, led by SoftBank Group (+10.1%), Kioxia (+9.3%), Tokyo Electron (+4.7%) and Advantest (+3.8%). Taiwan’s Taiex is up 1.6% at 47,300, a fifth straight gain and its highest since early July; TSMC is up 2.1% at NT$2,460. The trigger is OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released September 3 and trained on more than 100,000 Nvidia Grace Blackwell chips. On Friday the Philadelphia chip index rose 3.4% on the news and SK hynix’s US-listed shares gained 8.1%.
    If
    The Kospi closes above 6,900 and the Nikkei above 66,000 — that would put both back above where they were before last Wednesday’s sell-off on US yields.
    Why
    A new frontier model means more high-bandwidth memory and more test equipment, and Korea and Japan are where that gets made; Asia is buying the chip order book on a day the US cannot vote on it.
    Then
    Watch whether Wall Street’s chip stocks pick this up on Tuesday or fade it under the rate-hike odds.

    Open the detail →

  2. Hong Kong is the odd one out: Hang Seng −0.9%, Z.ai −4.6%, Kingdee −5.2%, but ASMPT +5.2%

    Context

    2513.HK0268.HK0522.HK0992.HK

    What
    The Hang Seng is down 0.9% at 25,408, pulling back from a two-week high as banks, tech and energy names are sold on the US rate-hike worry; Xiaomi is down about 4%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 is up 0.5%. Among our Hong Kong-listed names the split is the same as everywhere else in Asia: the chip-equipment maker ASMPT is up 5.2% at HK$166.80, Lenovo up 0.6%, while Z.ai (Zhipu), the one name in our Foundation Models sub-index, is down 4.6% at HK$1,026 and the software company Kingdee is down 5.2% at HK$8.43.
    If
    Hong Kong closes lower while Seoul and Tokyo close higher — a split that says the chip story is carrying Asia’s hardware markets, not its internet and software names.
    Why
    Hong Kong’s big weights are banks, property and consumer internet, none of which sell memory chips; it trades on US rates, and rates went up on Friday.
    Then
    Z.ai at 1,026 is 22% below the HK$1,314 it closed at in June when it joined the Hang Seng Tech index; the Foundation Models sub-index is that one stock until Anthropic and OpenAI list.

    Open the detail →

  3. ETF Dispersion Which themes move together and which have decoupled — dispersion across the ETF complex, nightly. See the dispersion →

  4. Friday on Wall Street: jobs beat by 3×, hike odds jump to ~60%, stocks slip — but chips rose 3.4%; futures flat this morning

    Context

    SPYQQQSMHSNDK

    What
    US employers added 162,000 jobs in August against 53,000 expected, the most since March, with unemployment steady at 4.1% and June and July revised up by 55,000. The market-implied chance of a Fed rate hike on September 16 rose from about 50% on Thursday to 58%–60%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.38%, its highest since January 2025, and the 10-year to 4.78%. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,718.60, the Nasdaq 0.3% and the Dow 272 points. Chips went the other way: the Philadelphia semiconductor index rose 3.4% on the GPT-6 news, Sandisk 11.9%, SK hynix’s US shares 8.1%. Among our indices, Rubin Build-Out rose 2.6% on Friday while the Agentic Winners 40 fell 1.4% and HALO Growth 0.6%. This morning S&P 500 futures are down 0.4% and Nasdaq-100 futures flat, on holiday-thin volume that stops at noon Chicago time.
    If
    The 2-year yield stays above 4.38% when the bond market reopens Tuesday — the hike is then priced as the base case, not a risk.
    Why
    Thursday’s rally was built on a lower chance of a hike; Friday’s jobs number took that away, and only the stocks with a fresh AI order to point to held up.
    Then
    The chips-up, everything-else-down split from Friday is exactly what Asia is repeating on Monday, in bigger size.

    Open the detail →

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C · point 11 · members

Today in point 11: why Monday is a clean experiment — Asia trading the AI order book with no US bond market to argue with, 30 of our 35 Asian chip names up and the software names down 5% to 8% — and the three things that decide Tuesday when Treasuries reopen: Broadcom’s 356.22 line, the 2-year yield at 4.38%, and oil at $96 with a new restricted zone coming outside Hormuz.

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