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Verdict Day Two: Six Earnings Windows Close Tonight

Verdict day two: six earnings windows close as MongoDB and GitLab print

Rubrik, Marvell, Autodesk, Elastic, IREN and Workday get scored at tonight's close from last Thursday's prints, while MongoDB and GitLab open new cards after the bell and September's minus-five-percent frame begins scoring.

In this edition

IREN GLD XLE IGV SMH SOXX XSD COHR

The Morning 10 Tue, Sep 1, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

The ten points

Last night this page scored its own record: five Wednesday windows closed, four paid — Salesforce's record +25.3%, CrowdStrike's +22.1% card record with a fresh 233.85 high, Synopsys's +7.2%, Nvidia's +5.3% ending an eight-print drought, HP's round trip to a flat −1.6%. Tonight it does it again. Six windows from last Thursday's prints — Rubrik, Marvell, IREN, Autodesk, Elastic, Workday — close against tonight's bell, and two new cards open after it: MongoDB and GitLab both print, GitLab moved up a day per FMP's calendar to double the evening. Dell prints too, without a card. September's minus-five-percent base case starts scoring today.

Monday's close was a quiet drift lower — the S&P 500 fell −0.33% to 7686.14, the Nasdaq 100 −0.62% to 29456.97, the VIX ticked up to 14.92 from Friday's 14.43. Underneath, gold lost more ground — GLD down −4.28% over five days, sitting below the broken 423.36 line — and the dollar held its bid without bonds following; dollar-yen presses the 160 door at 159.87 overnight. Asia is mixed-to-green — Taiwan +1.48%, Nikkei and KOSPI close to flat, Hang Seng the laggard at −1.11%.

This morning's ten points carry the tape's cross-currents — energy against the defensives, software against silicon, the index family's own layer split. Point 11 walks all six of tonight's windows one by one, closes out HP's story, and sits with MongoDB and GitLab's own card history before the week stacks Broadcom, Snowflake, and the first Warsh-era payrolls on top.

  1. Sector rotation — Energy vs defensives
  2. Software vs semis split
  3. COHR & AMAT — scanner support confluence
  4. Gold (GLD) & Bitcoin
  5. VIX complex & momentum-vs-low-vol spread
  6. Dollar (UUP) & Money Temperature
  7. Closelook indices — Rubin & HALO
  8. Euro-AI 50 & Generation Phase layers
  9. ISM Manufacturing & JOLTs (due today)
  10. Tom Lee — Fundstrat

  1. Sector rotation — Energy vs defensives

    Structure
    What
    Energy leads the five-day board — XLE +1.35% — while Utilities (−2.29%), Real Estate (−2.69%) and Staples (−2.82%) sit at the bottom, the widest spread on the board; Financials (−0.88%) also stays negative on the week.
    If
    Energy gives back Tuesday's gain and defensives catch a bid.
    Why
    Rotation away from yield-proxies into cyclical energy argues for risk appetite, not a defensive flight.
    Then
    Watch whether Financials, still negative on the week, follows energy or stays laggard — that confirms or denies the cyclical thesis.

  2. Software vs semis split

    Structure
    What
    Software (IGV +7.35%) outpaced the semiconductor complex by a wide margin over five days — SMH +1.80%, SOXX +0.96%, XSD +0.74% — even as all four ETFs closed Monday in the green.
    If
    Semis close above software's five-day gain for two consecutive sessions.
    Why
    When software leads and semis trail by this much, the AI trade is rewarding the stack above the silicon — a layer-rotation signal, not a broad tech move.
    Then
    See the Generation Phase layer read — Architects (+7.17%) and EDA & Chip IP (+7.12%) surging while HBM Memory (+2.43%) and Advanced Packaging (−0.23%) lag confirms the software-over-silicon dynamic, not a memory sell-off.
  3. Rubin 100 Our 100-name AI build-out index — masked headline, 37 sub-indices from architects to interconnects. Open Rubin 100 →

  4. COHR & AMAT — scanner support confluence

    Structure
    What
    Both flagged green at support-confluence on the scanner; MTSI and AMAT sit at or near key levels with mixed conviction scores.
    If
    Either name fails the confluence zone on volume.
    Why
    COHR and AMAT sit inside the semi and optical-networking complex — a hold here anchors the broader hardware layer.
    Then
    Seven cointegration breaks with zero active pairs is an elevated break count; watch for re-pair candidates surfacing on the asset page.

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C · point 11 · members

Today in point 11: last night's four paid verdicts close out — Salesforce's record +25.3%, CrowdStrike's +22.1% card record with a fresh 233.85 high, Synopsys's +7.2%, Nvidia's +5.3% ending an eight-print drought, and HP's exact round-trip to flat — then six more windows go to their own verdict tonight, Rubrik −13.1% and Marvell −12.3% and IREN −8.4% sold, Autodesk −4.5% just outside the line, Elastic holding +16.5%, and Workday's live coin-flip at +2.0% needing 199.38 to turn paid; then the Rubrik lesson on paying forward for a print connects to MongoDB and GitLab entering their own prints already up +11.6% and +12.7%, MongoDB's zero-flat binary and GitLab's most-punished split, Dell printing without a card, the tape underneath — bonds below the failed 93.04 line without a dollar bid, gold's four-percent breakout loss, the yen pressing 160, the DAX's AfD-linked slide, the IP layers surging while packaging and memory lag — and the week ahead stacking Broadcom's layer-axis test, Snowflake's card, and the first Warsh-era payrolls on top of a September that opens under a minus-five-percent frame.

The privileged, actionable read — what we do, and at which level — is in point 11, for members only.

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