Chips · Stock report · TSMC (NYSE: TSM)
TSMC — stayed within 3% after five of its last ten reports; reports again, close $422.25
The Closelooknet read
TSMC (NYSE: TSM) has been a fairly quiet stock after its numbers. On our Print Record it moved 2.7% on average in either direction in the three sessions after each of its last ten reports. Five times it stayed within 3% of the starting line, two times it rose more than 3% and three times it fell more than 3%, even though it beat the revenue estimate all ten times and the EPS estimate nine times. It sits 41st of the 86 stocks in our chip section on one-month move. The report is due on 15 October, the day of this close, so we watch where the stock settles after the three trading sessions following the report: a close beyond +3% or -3% from the starting line would put it on the other side of an even five-five split.
The last four reactions were -4.5%, -1.8%, -4.5% and +1.3%.
Where TSMC stands among 86 chip stocks
TSMC gained 1.08% over the past month, 41st of the 86 stocks in our chip section. Among its foundry and packaging peers, GlobalFoundries (GFS) rose 13.32% and ASE Group (ASX) 10.38%, while Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) gained 3.76% and Amkor Technology (AMKR) fell 4.82%. TSMC is 13.08% below its 52-week closing high of $485.80, set on 5 October. ASE Group is 12.0% below its high, set on 13 October, while GlobalFoundries is 45.8% below its May high, Tower 33.8% below and Amkor 52.9% below, both June highs.
Our money-flow and quality readings
Our money-flow reading (a gauge of net buying pressure) for TSMC is 44.1. It is still positive but slowing: it fell 1.8 points over five days and 3.1 over 21 days. Our momentum score is 69. The composite and the check of financial health are not scored for TSMC at this point, so we lean on momentum and the Print Record.
What the Street expects from the report
The Street carries earnings of $3.87 a share and roughly $39.8 billion in revenue into the report. Our notes put those at about 55% and 25% above the year-ago quarter. TSMC beat the revenue estimate at all ten of its recent reports and the EPS estimate at nine. Our Print Record notes that the one EPS miss in the run was followed by the biggest three-day rally of the set, +3.9%.
Price trend and the Street
TSMC closed at $422.25 on 15 October, down 1.8% on the day and 7.8% over five sessions. It is up 38.95% this year. It sits 2.81% below its 50-day average of $434.48 and 7.04% above the average close of the last 200 sessions, $394.48. Its typical daily swing is about 2.06%. Analysts' average target is $583, 35.5% above the close, with 18 buy, 7 hold and 0 sell ratings.
Closelooknet is a research diary. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.