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Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) — chart, structure and Closelooknet read

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Signals for this name

Every Closelooknet reading that exists for TOL, from the same nightly bakes the boards use. Research diary readings, not advice.

Weather around the name 3 macro readings: Money Temperature, Factor regime, Sovereign pressure

The weather around this name

Macro readings that apply by membership — the regime, the factor tape, the sector cell, the funding backdrop.

  • Money Temperature Composite 62/100 · S&P 500 fund at 67, bullish alignedEight instruments scored on position, momentum, volume, volatility and fragility — the regime every name trades inside. Temperature lab → 2026-09-25
  • Factor regime Momentum leading — risk appetite buildingMomentum against low volatility (SPMO / SPLV): above its 50-day trend, 99th percentile of the window, +8.4% over 20 sessions. Factor regime → 2026-09-25
  • Sovereign pressure Index 0.61 · up 0.29 over 21 sessionsG7 long-end yields, 10s30s and the slope — the funding weather for every balance sheet on this site. Sovereign pressure → 2026-09-25
How it trades on rate days beta 1.90 to TLT · on the worst bond days it fell more than the market

How it trades on rate days

How TOL has moved when long-dated Treasury yields rise — measured against TLT, the 20+ year Treasury fund.

  • Beta to long bonds, 1 year 1.90 — moves strongly with bonds for every 1% move in TLT (20+ year Treasuries), Toll Brothers Inc moved 1.90% on average · correlation 0.51 · higher than 99% of US names
  • Beta, last 3 months 1.88 about the same as over the year
  • On the 10 worst bond days −1.77% on average against −0.74% for the S&P 500 the 10 sessions of the past year in which TLT fell most, i.e. long yields rose most
  • Latest of those days +0.48% TLT −1.29% that day 2026-09-24

Daily total returns from the adjusted price series; a TLT down day is a day long yields rose. Beta = the average move of the name for a 1% move in TLT. Past sensitivity, not a forecast. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

Who it is priced against Residential Construction · United States · 5 names with week and year-to-date

Peer group

Residential Construction · United States

This name carries no Closelooknet score, so its cohort ranks on trend state — distance to the 50- and 200-day averages — never on a score it does not have.

Compared against TOL on the nightly bakes; the Peers tab ranks the cohort on the Closelooknet scores where it exists.

Company snapshot — Toll Brothers Inc

TOL in five paragraphs: what it makes and sells, where it sits in the Closelooknet stack, who it is priced against, why we track it, what we watch. Research diary, not advice.

What it does
Toll Brothers designs and builds detached and attached homes, largely in upscale residential communities across the United States, and sells condominiums under a separate city-living brand. It also develops rental apartments and student housing, and runs its own mortgage, title, architecture, land-development and building-component operations to support its home sales. It serves luxury first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult and second-home buyers, and is based in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.
Where it sits in the stack
Toll Brothers has no seat in our AI-focused Rubin index; it sits instead in the housing sleeve of our wider universe, under Consumer Cyclical and Residential Construction.
Who it is priced against
Our diary has not assigned it a peer group; the market usually names it alongside other large homebuilders such as D.R. Horton.
Why Closelooknet tracks it
It holds a seat in the Russell 1000 but carries no Closelooknet score and no quotes, and mention count in our coverage is nil.
What the diary watches
The diary watches for any change in coverage or a peer-group assignment that would place it more clearly against other homebuilders in our universe.

Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) trades on US exchanges.

Written from the company’s public profile and Closelooknet’s own readings, 2026-09-17. Descriptive, refreshed with the registry; corrections welcome via the imprint. closelook.net is an investment research diary — market structure, index membership and scores are our own readings, not investment advice. Related: index compare · sector dispersion · scanner.

The Street on this name 3 analyst actions on the wire · latest: price target by Evercore ISI, 2026-09-25

The Street on this name

Analyst actions and the latest print for TOL from the Closelooknet wires — third-party opinions on the record, not our readings.

  • Price target Evercore ISI — target 184 from 191 Target cut to $184 from $191 (+35.4% to spot) 2026-09-25
  • Price target Evercore ISI — target 191 from 185 Target raised to $191 from $185 (+28.6% to spot) 2026-08-20
  • Price target UBS — target 195 from 187 Target raised to $195 from $187 (+31.2% to spot) 2026-08-20

3 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 3 target changes. Analyst wire → · Earnings wire →

Dividends and capital return trailing yield 0.74%, quarterly · last 0.26 USD on 2026-07-10

Dividends and capital return

What TOL pays out and buys back — distributions read from the price series, money terms from the filings.

  • Trailing 12 months 1.02 USD per share · a 0.74% yield on the 2026-09-25 close 4 distributions, paid quarterly 2026-09-25
  • Change on the year +5.5% against the prior twelve months prior twelve months 0.97 USD per share
  • Last distribution 0.26 USD per share as the price series records it, within days of the ex-date 2026-07-10
  • By calendar year 2023: 0.21 USD (partial) · 2024: 0.90 USD · 2025: 0.99 USD · 2026: 0.77 USD to date first distribution recorded in the three-year window: 2023-10-05

Per-share amounts are derived from the adjusted price series in the listing currency, so dates sit within days of the ex-date; filing figures come from the fundamentals feed for the last reported fiscal year. An investment diary, not a recommendation.

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-09-26

Quick answers

What is Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?

Toll Brothers Inc trades as TOL on the US exchange (United States) in the Closelooknet research universe, as of the registry build of 2026-09-26.

Is TOL in a Closelooknet index?

Not currently — Toll Brothers Inc is tracked in the Closelooknet research universe but is not a constituent of a Closelooknet functional index as of 2026-09-26.

Where does TOL trade against its moving averages?

Mixed moving-average stack: Trades -4.9% vs the 50-day and -4.8% vs the 200-day average, 18.3% below the 52-week high and +11.5% off the 52-week low; a golden cross printed 68 sessions ago. Computed from daily closes. As of 2026-09-25 — a technical state from the nightly Closelooknet bake, not advice. The Technical tab carries the full row.

How does Toll Brothers Inc trade when bond yields rise?

Over the past year Toll Brothers Inc had a beta of 1.90 to TLT, the long-dated Treasury fund — it moves strongly with bonds, higher than 99% of US names. On the 10 sessions in which long bonds fell most it moved −1.77% on average, against −0.74% for the S&P 500. The "How it trades on rate days" block on this page carries the lines.

What does Toll Brothers Inc do?

Toll Brothers designs and builds detached and attached homes, largely in upscale residential communities across the United States, and sells condominiums under a separate city-living brand. It also develops rental apartments and student housing, and runs its own mortgage, title, architecture, land-development and building-component operations to support its home sales. It serves luxury first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult and second-home buyers, and is based in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania. Our diary has not assigned it a peer group; the market usually names it alongside other large homebuilders such as D.R. Horton.

Where does Toll Brothers Inc sit in the AI build-out?

Toll Brothers has no seat in our AI-focused Rubin index; it sits instead in the housing sleeve of our wider universe, under Consumer Cyclical and Residential Construction. It holds a seat in the Russell 1000 but carries no Closelooknet score and no quotes, and mention count in our coverage is nil.

Does Toll Brothers Inc pay a dividend?

Toll Brothers Inc has paid 1.02 USD per share over the last twelve months, paid quarterly, a trailing yield of 0.74% on the 2026-09-25 close; the last distribution recorded in the price series was 0.26 USD on 2026-07-10. The "Dividends and capital return" block on this page carries the lines.

What has Wall Street done on Toll Brothers Inc recently?

The most recent analyst action on Toll Brothers Inc on the Closelooknet wire is a price target by Evercore ISI on 2026-09-25 (target 184 from 191). 3 actions on the analyst wire since 2026-08-13: 3 target changes. Analyst actions are third-party opinions recorded by the wire, not Closelooknet readings. The “The Street on this name” block on this page lists the moves; the full feeds are the analyst wire and the earnings wire.

What does this page show?

A live price chart with SMA overlays and drawing tools for TOL, performance metrics, index-membership context and the Closelooknet structure read — an investment research diary view, not investment advice.

Related in the Closelooknet universe

then Residential Construction, then Consumer Cyclical. Scored names rank on their Closelooknet score; names without one rank on trend state — above or below their 50- and 200-day averages — never on a score they do not carry.