Chips · Stock report · Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT)
Applied Materials — seven of ten reports ended down; the next one lands Nov 12 after an 11% jump
The Closelooknet read
Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) has beaten the earnings estimate at all ten of its last reports, yet our Print Record shows the stock fell by more than 3% in the three sessions after seven of them. Only one report, February's, was followed by a rise of more than 3% (+12.5%); two stayed within 3%. On average the stock moved 6.7% in either direction in those three sessions. Monday's 11.4% jump took it into the next report, due Nov 12, and we watch whether the closing price three sessions after that report holds the gain or gives it back.
The jump came alongside a 3.1% opening gap up and a move about three times the size of its typical daily swing.
Where Applied Materials stands among 86 chip stocks
Over one month Applied Materials is down 26.9%, ranked 45th of the 86 stocks in our chip section. Two of its equipment peers are down by a similar amount: Lam Research (LRCX) 30.6% and Tokyo Electron (8035.T) 32.1%. ASM International (ASM.AS) is down 23.8%, Aixtron (AIXA.DE) 12.8% and Kokusai Electric (6525.T) 50.4%.
Against 52-week highs, Applied Materials is 48.8% below its 30 June close of $723.00. Lam Research is 48.9% below, Tokyo Electron 46.1% below and VAT Group (VACN.SW) 25.3% below, with its high on 5 October.
Our money-flow and quality readings
Our money-flow reading (a gauge of net buying pressure) stands at 37.5, labelled neutral and still positive but slowing. It is down 11.6 points over five sessions and 40.3 over 21.
On our scores Applied Materials rates 51 of 100 overall. Balance sheet (80) and quality (77) are the strongest; capital allocation is 61, growth 47, cash quality 41, valuation 35 and momentum 24. The Piotroski score, a check of financial health, is scored 6 of 9.
What the next report is expected to show
The Street expects earnings of $4.06 a share on revenue of roughly $10.31 billion at the report due Nov 12. The Print Record's last four reactions were -4.2% (Dec 25), +12.5% (Feb 26), -7.6% (May 26) and -3.8% (Aug 26), each after a beat on both earnings and revenue.
We judge the reaction by the closing price three sessions after the report.
Price trend and the Street
Applied Materials closed at $370.55 on Nov 9, up 11.4% on the day but down 29.5% over three months. It is 16.4% below its 50-day average ($443.02) and 16.8% below the average close of the last 200 sessions ($445.60). The stock is still up 44.2% this year, and its typical daily swing is about 3.7%.
The average analyst target is $660.00, 98.3% above the last close, with 43 buy, 12 hold and no sell ratings.
Closelooknet is a research diary. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.