Glossary term
Metaculus
A forecasting community that aggregates members' probability estimates without monetary stakes; a calibration benchmark rather than a market.
Metaculus is a forecasting community that aggregates members' probability estimates on future events without monetary stakes. Because it relies on reputation and track record rather than money, it functions as a calibration benchmark and research source rather than a tradeable market. Its aggregated forecasts are often cited as a reference point against which market-implied probabilities can be compared. See Prediction Markets 101.