Glossary term
Calibration (Forecasting)
The alignment between stated probabilities and actual outcome frequencies; a calibrated 70% forecaster is right 70% of the time on 70% calls.
Calibration is the alignment between a forecaster's stated probabilities and the actual frequency of outcomes. A well-calibrated forecaster who says "70% likely" is right about 70% of the time across all their 70%-confidence calls. Calibration, not just accuracy, is what separates a genuinely skilled forecaster from a lucky or overconfident one. See Brier Score and Prediction Markets 101.