Dan Ives — Tesla at $600 Against a $380 Tape

No analyst's targets travel further through the financial media than Dan Ives'. His current Tesla call — $600 within twelve months, with a bull case reported between $700 and $800 — is the clearest example of the genre: a dated, public, falsifiable number attached to a thesis about robotaxis, FSD monetisation and Optimus.

The call against this week's tape

Tesla reported its third quarter on Wednesday night: an earnings beat on a delivery number that had been public for three weeks, a call that promised Cybercab sales by year-end — and a stock that slipped anyway, trading near $380 by Thursday midday, inside the ±3% band of our reaction grading.

That leaves the arithmetic stark: from here, the $600 base case needs roughly 58% in nine months. Ives' thesis does not rest on quarterly earnings — it rests on the market repricing Tesla as an AI and autonomy company. Which is exactly what makes the target gradable: either that repricing arrives within the window, or it does not.

The companion call

Ives is also reported with a $250 base-case target on Nvidia for end-2026 — some coverage carries a $275 figure, and the two reports are not clearly dated, which we note rather than resolve. Nvidia trades near $214 intraday on 22 October, so the lower figure implies about 17% upside into year-end. We will pin the Nvidia entry to a primary-dated note before scoring it.

The grading rule

We score the Tesla call in July 2027, twelve months from the reported date: a trade at or above $600 before then is a hit; anything less is a miss, with the path documented. This is coverage, not endorsement — Dan Ives has not contributed to this page, and a target being bold is not a reason to own or avoid the stock. The record is the product.