Big Tech Earnings — Seoul buys back the chip sell-off as Tesla, Meta, IBM, SAP and Lam Research report tonight

The Morning 10

Big Tech Earnings — Seoul buys back the chip sell-off as Tesla, Meta, IBM, SAP and Lam Research report tonight

1. 1 Tuesday's shape — Dow +1.0%, small caps +1.7%, chips −0.3%: the rally widened and tech sat out
2. 2 Asia — Seoul buys back what it sold: Kospi +2.6%, SK Hynix +4.9%, Samsung +4.5%
3. 3 Five prints after tonight's close — Tesla, Meta, IBM, SAP, Lam Research
4. 4 TSMC — a record quarter, scored flat: +0.7% over two weeks
5. 5 Sector rotation — Discretionary, Health Care and Financials lead the week; Tech and Utilities at the bottom
6. 6 Semis vs software — chips slipped while software and cloud bounced
7. 7 Our AI indices — Rubin −1.5% on the day and −10.2% on the week; the products index is up through the storm
8. 8 Under the surface — low-vol beats momentum, vol eases, Money Temperature at 49
9. 9 Dollar and gold both softer; long bonds bought — TLT +0.8%
10. 10 Outside view — Dan Niles

The full Morning 10 →

Daily Pulse — Earnings — Records No Longer Get Paid

Five companies report after tonight's US close — Tesla, Meta, IBM, SAP and Lam Research, the heaviest reporting night of the quarter so far. They report into a market with a strange habit: companies beat their forecasts and the stocks do not move. Since late September we have measured eighteen earnings reactions the same way — three sessions from the closing price on the day of the report, rewarded at +3%, punished at −3%. Sixteen of the eighteen beat the profit forecast. Six were rewarded.

The full Pulse →

On the tape

• Western Digital ▲ +6.09%
• 🇹🇼 Taiwan Exports 60.9 ▲
• 🇹🇼 Taiwan Trade Balance 23.63 ▲
• 🇺🇸 SIA Global Billings $146.8B
• Asia close: Nikkei +0.81%, KOSPI +2.8% — KOSPI +2.8% leads Asia