The Trading Day · Tuesday, August 18, 2026

The wire breaks — dollar-yen clears 159.5 overnight, and Fabrinet's clean beat gets sold into the print

Monday's US close split hard along a line this desk has been tracking for weeks: semis ran, software broke. SOXX gained +1.58% to 559.12, with Applied Materials +5.55% to 535.31, Coherent +7.79% to 351.22, Lumentum +4.62% to 968.90, Fabrinet +4.97% to 598.58, and the memory-chip complex (DRAM) +5.36%. Software and cloud went the other way — IGV −2.01%, CLOU −1.90%, Microsoft −3.04%, Meta −3.54%, Workday −3.77%, MNDY −4.79% — and the split showed up in the family indices too: Rubin EW +2.03% on the day and +7.96% on the week, HALO EW −0.62% on the day and −0.12% on the week. VIX rose +6.60% to 15.19 on a session where semis were up — vol paying attention to something the equity tape wasn't.

The Morning 10

The wire breaks — dollar-yen clears 159.5 overnight, and Fabrinet's clean beat gets sold into the print

  1. 1 Semis vs. Software
  2. 2 AI Build-Out Layers (week)
  3. 3 Energy vs. Discretionary & Materials
  4. 4 Momentum vs. Low Volatility (factor pair)
  5. 5 Volatility & Money Temperature
  6. 6 Gold (GLD) & Long Bonds (TLT)
  7. 7 Rubin 100 vs. HALO 100
  8. 8 Euro-AI 50
  9. 9 US Housing Starts & HD Earnings
  10. 10 Outside View — Liz Ann Sonders · Schwab

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