Friday's tape was priced for two wars at once — a shooting one in the Gulf and a trade one out of Washington, where sixty trading partners were hit with new tariffs. The weekend un-priced the first of them. Iran signalled it would suspend attacks as long as the American pause holds, and Brent fell to 90.84 this morning, down 6.1% from Friday's 96.78 settle and roughly ten percent below Thursday's high above $101. That resolves the watch-line this letter has carried all week in the most direct way available: spot capitulated toward the December strip rather than the strip rising to meet spot. The curve was right. Nasdaq futures are up more than 1.5%, Asia is mostly higher, and the bid is returning to precisely what was sold. What has not changed is the calendar — a Fed that meets Wednesday with hikes rather than cuts in the conversation, four capex guides in 48 hours, and Core PCE on Thursday. And overnight, in the one corner that broke hardest on Friday, China listed its largest memory maker and prepared to give away a three-trillion-parameter model. The day in ten.
Moonshot published the weights of a 2.8-trillion-parameter model today, and the first independent assessments landed with them. K3 ranks fifth of 215 overall but takes first place in frontend code, beats GPT-5.6 Sol on SWE Marathon and edges Opus 4.8 on tool use — while reaching stage 17 of 32 in a cyber assessment where US models reach 28.5. China has not overtaken the US across AI; the gap has become task-specific. And the model cannot be separated from its orchestration layer, which is Friday's reaction function restated as a model release.