Show-Me Time — Crunch Hour for the Other Five of the Mag 7
Four-print Wednesday — and the tape already answered half the question. Yesterday the split ran clean again: semiconductors up more than five percent while software fell, the third session of the same yin-yang — and the technical half of our two-part trigger went into ink. SOXX closed at 552.69, twenty points above the 530–532 band that had rejected every recovery attempt of this drawdown, and never traded below 540 after the open. Old-economy beats from 3M and GM carried the broad tape, and SPY closed back above its 50-day. Overnight Asia followed New York higher; US futures are giving back roughly half a percent this morning. What the chart can no longer settle, tonight settles: Alphabet's capex guide leads a four-print evening with Tesla, IBM and ServiceNow. The technical question is answered. The spending question is tonight. The day in ten.
The market has stopped paying the Mag 7 for AI ambition and started demanding a path to monetize the spend. The tape has already graded them: the two that own the customer got paid, the three caught between capex overspend and disruption of their own core lagged. Alphabet opens the show-me window tonight, with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple across the next eight days.