Japan Just Put the Yen Carry Trade Back on the Screen
Two sessions after the largest foreign US listing on record, Korea took it back: a Kospi drop steep enough to trigger a program-trading halt, SK Hynix −12%, and the first DRAM price decline since September to give the selling a number. Taiwan stayed green — and oil is finally buying the war. The day in ten.
Japan's finance minister has urged the country's giant pension funds — the roughly $1.8 trillion GPIF included — to invest more at home, and markets immediately understood the subtext: structural yen demand, capital coming home. For decades the yen has been the world's main funding currency; the trade works as long as Japanese funding stays cheap and the yen stays weak, and Japan is now challenging both assumptions. August 2024 showed what the unwind loop looks like. This time the trigger would be repatriation rather than a rate shock — slower at the start, potentially more structural once it gains momentum. A catalyst, not confirmation — but another watchpoint that could produce a swift selloff in the summer months.