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Tokyo reversed the silent selling overnight — Seoul joined, then faded at the close

The Morning 10 Mon, Aug 10, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

The ten points

Asia answered Friday's one open question overnight — Tokyo's silent sellers reversed into a +1.9% Nikkei close, and Seoul joined before fading into its close on foreign selling. Semis lead a broad five-day recovery; gold adds to gains while the dollar softens and vol stays contained. The week's referee reports Wednesday: July CPI.

  1. Overnight Asia — the Monday binary
  2. Semi complex
  3. Software & Cloud vs Semis
  4. AI Build-out Layers
  5. Gold (GLD)
  6. VIX / Volatility (VIXY)
  7. Dollar (UUP) & Breadth
  8. Closelook indices — Rubin, Euro-AI, HALO
  9. Earnings — MNDY before the bell
  10. Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset Management

  1. Overnight Asia — the Monday binary

    Structure
    What
    Friday's no-news selling in Tokyo's AI hardware names did not extend: the Nikkei closed +1.9% at 66,880 with the chip names leading the reversal, ahead of Tuesday's Mountain Day holiday in Tokyo. Seoul joined but faded — Samsung closed +1.5% and SK Hynix +1.1%, both well off intraday highs near +3–4%, as foreign selling pared the Kospi's gains; the Kosdaq had spiked nearly 6% intraday, enough to trigger a buy-side halt.
    If
    the US session confirms — then the recovery runs through all three regions and Friday's Tokyo dissent is closed. The Seoul fade is the asterisk: joined, not yet committed.
    Why
    the weekend Weekly flagged the silent Asian-hardware selloff as the one dissent from the global bid; Monday reversed the dissent in Tokyo and half-confirmed it in Seoul.
    Then
    watch the Asian names inside the Rubin build-out; the weekly's watchlist (SoftBank, Advantest, TEL, Hynix, Samsung, TSMC) is the scoreboard.

  2. Semi complex

    Structure
    What
    Small-cap semis outran the large-cap semi benchmarks over five days, and all three legs extended gains in the latest session — semis the clear sector engine.
    If
    the semi complex stalls or reverses while software holds — rotation, not broad tech strength.
    Why
    when the smallest, most cyclical semis lead, it signals genuine risk appetite rather than a narrow mega-cap bid.
    Then
    watch Layer 1 Architects vs Layer 2 Manufacturing for confirmation — see the Rubin build-out.
  3. Trade the Look The diary’s tactical book as an investable wikifolio certificate — around ten positions, fully visible. See the wikifolio →

  4. Software & Cloud vs Semis

    Structure
    What
    Software and cloud lagged semis badly over five days but surged in the latest session — cloud outpacing software on the day.
    If
    software and cloud sustain the one-day momentum into a multi-day trend.
    Why
    a rotation from semis into software would broaden the AI trade and shift leadership within tech.
    Then
    monitor HALO 100 — software-heavy cohort — for follow-through.

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A daily overview, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading morning at 08:00 CET. See the Daily Pulse and today’s check-in.