Lab · updated every night · as of 2026-10-30
Midterms 2026 — Stocks Against 19 Midterm Years Since 1950
Americans vote on Tuesday 3 November 2026. As of 2026-10-30, 2 trading days before Election Day, the S&P 500 stands −2.4% from its close 30 trading days before the vote; in the average midterm year since 1950 it was +2.5% at this point, and 17 of 19 years stood higher. The Nasdaq Composite is −6.6% against +2.3%. History has been kind after midterms — the S&P 500 was higher six months later in every one of the 19 — but the first month was the weakest stretch. Base rates from index closes, not a forecast; the levels decide.
S&P 500: 2026 against 19 midterm years since 1950
- 2026 (−2.4% on 2026-10-30)
- Average midterm year
- Middle half of the years
Percent from the close 30 trading days before Election Day. At this point (2 trading days before Election Day) the years ranged from −6.6% to +10.0%; median +2.1%.
Nasdaq Composite: 2026 against 13 midterm years since 1974
- 2026 (−6.6% on 2026-10-30)
- Average midterm year
- Middle half of the years
Percent from the close 30 trading days before Election Day. At this point (2 trading days before Election Day) the years ranged from −13.1% to +15.1%; median +2.7%.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 2026 against 19 midterm years since 1950
- 2026 (−0.2% on 2026-10-30)
- Average midterm year
- Middle half of the years
Percent from the close 30 trading days before Election Day. At this point (2 trading days before Election Day) the years ranged from −5.2% to +11.2%; median +2.0%.
Every midterm since 1950 (S&P 500)
Returns from the Election Day close; "into the vote" is the 30 trading days before it. Six months = 126 trading days.
| Year | Election Day | Into the vote | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | Deepest fall in 6 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022-11-08 | +5.0% | +2.8% | +7.4% | +7.9% | −2.1% |
| 2018 | 2018-11-06 | −5.5% | −2.2% | −0.6% | +4.6% | −14.7% |
| 2014 | 2014-11-04 | +1.5% | +3.1% | +0.4% | +3.8% | −2.0% |
| 2010 | 2010-11-02 | +4.7% | +1.1% | +6.9% | +12.9% | −1.3% |
| 2006 | 2006-11-07 | +3.5% | +2.2% | +4.7% | +8.9% | −0.6% |
| 2002 | 2002-11-05 | +11.7% | +0.2% | −6.0% | +0.5% | −12.5% |
| 1998 | 1998-11-03 | +7.9% | +5.4% | +14.6% | +19.9% | +0.0% |
| 1994 | 1994-11-08 | +0.8% | −3.1% | +2.8% | +12.6% | −4.3% |
| 1990 | 1990-11-06 | +1.1% | +5.9% | +10.1% | +21.5% | −1.8% |
| 1986 | 1986-11-04 | +4.5% | +3.1% | +11.3% | +20.0% | −3.8% |
| 1982 | 1982-11-02 | +10.1% | +0.9% | +4.9% | +18.1% | −3.3% |
| 1978 | 1978-11-07 | −8.6% | +3.9% | +6.0% | +6.0% | −1.4% |
| 1974 | 1974-11-05 | +10.4% | −10.3% | +2.5% | +18.6% | −13.4% |
| 1970 | 1970-11-03 | +2.9% | +5.1% | +13.9% | +23.2% | −1.7% |
| 1966 | 1966-11-08 | +3.7% | +1.2% | +8.2% | +15.6% | −1.3% |
| 1962 | 1962-11-06 | +3.0% | +6.9% | +13.6% | +20.0% | −0.1% |
| 1958 | 1958-11-04 | +4.8% | +1.9% | +7.1% | +10.3% | −1.0% |
| 1954 | 1954-11-02 | +0.7% | +6.9% | +13.2% | +18.6% | +0.0% |
| 1950 | 1950-11-07 | −0.4% | +0.5% | +13.4% | +16.3% | −1.9% |
| Median | +3.5% | +2.2% | +7.1% | +15.6% | −1.8% | |
| Higher in | 16/19 | 16/19 | 17/19 | 19/19 | — | |
November and the turn of the year
S&P 500 in November since 1950
+1.86%
average · up 53 of 76 years
November in midterm years
+2.75%
average · up 15 of 19
S&P 500, November to January
+4.38%
average · up 56 of 76
Nasdaq, November to January
+6.54%
average since 1974 · up 40 of 52
Month-end closes: October close to November close, and to January close. Closelooknet computation from index closes. Read alongside the Weekly Signal, which follows what the first days after the vote say, and the daily editions. Research diary readings, not advice.