Agentic Winners 40: Who Captures AI's Value
AW40 is a 40-name equal-weight index across four tiers — from the megacap gateways agentic adoption flows through to the consumer endpoints where agent actions land. It is a bet on <em>who</em> captures the value of the agentic-AI disruption of knowledge work, at a moment when the eventual winners are genuinely unclear. Inclusion is gated by the Agent Beneficiary Ratio (ABR), not by performance.
The Four Tiers
The 40 constituents are organised into four tiers, each a distinct position in how agentic value is captured:
Tier A · Megacap Gateway (6) — Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Nvidia. The platforms agentic adoption flows through: Copilot, AWS, Gemini, on-device. They benefit largely regardless of who ultimately wins — gateway optionality rather than pure-play conviction. Nvidia is cross-listed with Rubin, where it is core; Apple is a latent gateway, not a winner yet.
Tier B · Control Plane (7) — Palantir, ServiceNow, Salesforce, Workday, SAP, Oracle, UiPath. The enterprise operating layer: ERP, CRM, HCM, workflow, orchestration. The Cannibalize-or-Die cohort — they must eat their own legacy revenue to win the agentic pivot, and most are punished in the tape today.
Tier C · Application Leaders (16) — Adobe, Intuit, Veeva, CoStar, Samsara, Tempus AI, HubSpot, Atlassian, PTC, Dassault Systèmes, Siemens, Kingdee, freee, Money Forward, Appier, monday.com. Vertical and horizontal software whose business outcome either improves with AI or gets eaten by it. The contrarian core.
Tier D · Endpoints (11) — Shopify, AppLovin, Reddit, Duolingo, Spotify, Netflix, NAVER, Kakao, MercadoLibre, Sea Limited, Toast. The consumer and transaction frontier — commerce, payments, content, social. Where agentic action lands: shopping and payment agents need trusted endpoints to act through.
ABR: The Inclusion Gate
No clean public pure-plays exist for the agentic transition — the pure-plays are private. Every AW40 name is a hybrid: a legacy business being disrupted plus agentic upside. The Agent Beneficiary Ratio (ABR) is the lens that keeps inclusion rigorous, sorting each name into one of three archetypes:
Natural Position (NP) — benefits largely regardless of who wins, such as the gateways and the data moats. In.
Cannibalize-or-Die (CoD) — incumbents that must self-disrupt to survive. In if they are genuinely pivoting.
Terminal — names agents replace entirely, such as Chegg and Shutterstock. Out. The gate working as intended: the punished names that are not winners are exactly the ones excluded.
ABR is shown per name as the signature display, but it is informational — it is not a weighting input. The index is clean equal-weight; performance plays no role in construction.
Segments and Regions
Beyond the four tiers, AW40 cuts two further ways. By segment — Enterprise (B2B) versus Consumer — and by region — United States, Europe, Asia. Each cut is published as its own equal-weight sub-index, so you can read whether agentic value is accruing to enterprise or consumer names, and where in the world it is being captured.
How to Read It
Honest framing: Winners is far less certain than the infrastructure layer (Rubin) or the operating layer (Agentic Infrastructure). It is a bet on who captures AI's value when it is unclear who wins, and near-term performance may be soft by design. ABR is what keeps that bet disciplined rather than a momentum chase.
Three weightings: The composite and every sub-index publish in equal-weight (EW), cap-weight (CW), and momentum-drift (MW), rebased to 1,000. The spread between them shows whether a move is broad or concentrated in the megacaps.