AVAV PEAD reversal: T+3 ↓SHORT faded — T+5 closes +8.76%
T+3 said ↓SHORT at -6.77% CAR; T+5 reverses to +8.76%. The market re-priced the print.
─ Timeline ─ Print 2026-06-23 AeroVironment T-1 close 151.33 (baseline) T+3 close 137.95 CAR -6.77% → ↓SHORT T+5 close 2026-06-30 165.07 CAR +8.76%
─ Verdict ─ T+5 CAR (+8.76%) lands on the opposite side of the entry band from T+3 (-6.77%). The post-earnings drift faded inside two extra sessions — typical signature of a print that hit consensus algorithms hard then gave back as positioning normalised. Our read: the reversal outweighs the T+3 direction — we no longer treat that initial reading as the live signal.
─ Conviction ─ Original conviction 83/100 invalidated. T+5 closes against the signal — the print did not produce a sustained move.
─ Original T+3 signal ─ See earnings card: /tape/c-earnings-avav-2026-06-23/
─ Closelook frame ─ Indices: HALO
→ closelook.net/indices/stock/?t=AVAV