Daily Pulse · · 08:30 NY · signal
Risk-on rally
Index moves
| Index | 1D | 1W |
|---|---|---|
| Rubin 100 | +3.37% | -1.66% |
| HALO 100 | +0.94% | +1.09% |
| Euro-AI 50 | +1.52% | +3.45% |
| AW25 | — | +3.58% |
Pattern alerts
- NOC support-confluence WARNING
- MCD support-confluence WARNING
- LMT support-confluence WARNING
- PFE support-confluence WARNING
- PLTR support-confluence WARNING
Cointegration
1 active pair, 4 breaks.
§1 — Lede
🟢 Yesterday's US session closed with broad but shallow equity gains while Rubin 100 surged +3.37% on the day, masking a pronounced divergence between semiconductor IP names and the broader tape.
§1.5 — Pre-market US (futures)
S&P (ES) +0.15% · Nasdaq (NQ) +0.14% · Dow (YM) +0.28% · Russell (RTY) +0.09% · as of 11:42 UTC
At 12:50 UTC, all four US futures pointed marginally higher, Dow leading at +0.28%; Russell lagged at +0.09%.
§2 — Cross-asset (yesterday’s US close)
Gold $416.99 -0.10% · Bitcoin $77,627 +0.11% · TLT $84.22 +0.37%
Yesterday's US close showed gold nearly flat (−0.10%), TLT up +0.37%, and Bitcoin edging +0.11%. The combination of a bid in long bonds alongside flat gold suggests a mild duration-seeking tone rather than a classic risk-on signal.
§2.5 — Europe midday (live, intraday)
DAX +0.69% · CAC +0.37% · Euro Stoxx 50 +0.68% · AEX +0.69% · IBEX +0.13% · as of 11:37 UTC
At 12:57 UTC, European indices traded broadly higher; DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 led at roughly +0.69%, while IBEX lagged the field at +0.13%.
§3 — Risk & dollar (yesterday’s US close)
DXY (dollar, UUP proxy) $27.73 +0.00% · VIX (equity vol) 17.04 +1.67% · VVIX (vol of vol) 91.88 -4.74% · VXN (Nasdaq vol) 22.74 -4.09% · MOVE (bond vol) 79.72 -2.22%
Yesterday's close showed DXY-proxy UUP unchanged, with VIX rising +1.67% to 17.04 while VXN fell −4.09% and VVIX dropped −4.74% — equity-space vol readings diverged sharply, with Nasdaq-specific vol contracting even as headline VIX ticked up. MOVE fell −2.22% to 79.72, placing bond-market implied vol well below its long-run baseline; the VIX/MOVE split merits attention.
§4 — Pre-Asia-session ETF proxies (yesterday’s NY close)
Nikkei (EWJ) +0.18% · Hang Seng (EWH) -0.21% · Shanghai (MCHI) -1.17% · KOSPI (EWY) +3.50%
Yesterday's NY close of US-listed Asia proxies showed EWY (Korea) advancing +3.50%, while MCHI (China) declined −1.17% and EWH (Hong Kong) slipped −0.21%; EWJ (Japan) was broadly flat at +0.18%.
§5 — US yesterday
SPX (SPY) $742.72 · d +0.20% · w -0.73% · m +4.43%
NDX (QQQ) $714.51 · d +0.19% · w -0.73% · m +9.07%
DJI (DIA) $503.11 · d +0.57% · w +0.46% · m +1.69%
RUT (IWM) $282.49 · d +0.94% · w -0.69% · m +2.17%
Yesterday's US close saw RUT lead the major indices at +0.94% on the day, while SPY and QQQ were near-flat at roughly +0.20%; on a monthly basis NDX extended its lead at +9.07% versus SPY's +4.43%.
§6 — S&P 500 sectors (yesterday’s close)
Top-3 (5d): Energy +1.83% · RealEstate +1.34% · HealthCare +1.04%
Bottom-3 (5d): Materials -3.19% · Industrials -2.28% · Comm -0.86%
Yesterday's sector rotation showed Utilities (+1.10%), Tech (+0.82%), and HealthCare (+0.69%) topping the tape, while Energy (−1.12%) and ConsStaples (−1.01%) were the session's clear laggards.
§7 — Pre-Europe-session ETF proxies (yesterday’s NY close)
DAX (EWG) +0.40% · FTSE (EWU) +0.59% · CAC (EWQ) +0.02%
Yesterday's NY close of Europe ETF proxies showed EWU (FTSE) +0.59%, EWG (DAX) +0.40%, EWQ (CAC) nearly flat.
§8 — Reference portfolios
| Index | Day | Week | Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin 100 | +3.37% | -1.66% | +16.72% |
| HALO 100 | +0.94% | +1.09% | -2.05% |
| Euro-AI 50 | +1.52% | +3.45% | +9.80% |
| AW25 | — | +3.58% | +9.20% |
Rubin 100 outperformed sharply yesterday at +3.37% on the day and +16.72% on the month, while HALO 100 gained +0.94% but sits −2.05% on the month — a 18.8-percentage-point monthly dispersion signals a narrow, semiconductor-driven tape. Euro-AI 50 and Agentic Winners 25">AW25 both showed solid monthly gains near +9.8% and +9.2% respectively, positioning them in the middle of the dispersion range.
§9 — Generation phase
Layer 1 — Architects & IP w +3.91% · m +25.47%
Layer 2 — Manufacturing w -2.25% · m +11.51%
Layer 3 — Memory & Packaging w -1.71% · m +15.54%
Layer 4 — Substrates & Power w -2.30% · m +20.97%
Top sub-sectors (week): EDA & Chip IP +11.95% · Memory (HBM & NAND) +4.81% · Substrates & Interposers +2.98%
Lagging sub-sectors (week): Wafer Processing & Precision -9.75% · Thermal Management -9.58% · Photomasks & Mask Infrastructure -9.24%
Layer 3 (Memory & Packaging) led yesterday at +4.35% on the day, with Layer 1 (Architects & IP) close behind at +3.64%; on a weekly view Layer 1 is the only layer positive at +3.91%. Memory (HBM & NAND) at +53.94% on the month and Substrates & Interposers at +39.22% are the dominant monthly sub-sector moves, while Wafer Processing, Thermal Management, and Photomasks each fell roughly −9.2% to −9.8% on the week — a notable intra-Rubin rotation away from process-equipment names.
§10 — Money Temperature
Composite 57 🟡 · Label Risk-on rally · Instruments 8 contributing
The composite Money Temperature registered 57 (labelled 'Risk-on rally') as of the 00:06 UTC update, sitting in moderately constructive territory; the reading is consistent with selective rather than broad risk appetite given the observed cross-asset divergences.
§11 — Pattern Scanner
Active 28 signals · NOC 37 🟡 support-confluence · MCD 37 🟡 support-confluence · LMT 26 🟡 support-confluence · PFE 25 🟡 support-confluence · PLTR 22 🟡 support-confluence
The Pattern Scanner carried 28 active signals, with the top five hits all flagging support-confluence setups — NOC, MCD, LMT, PFE, and PLTR — four of which carry a red regime label, suggesting these are defensive or distressed confluences rather than momentum entries.
§12 — Cointegration Lab
Active pairs 1 · Breaks 4
The Cointegration Monitor">Cointegration Lab showed 1 active pair against 4 recent breaks, indicating meaningful stress in previously stable relationships; a high break count relative to active pairs typically signals regime transition or elevated cross-asset dispersion.
§13 — Cross-read
Yesterday's session presented a structurally split picture: Rubin 100 gained +3.37% on broad semiconductor strength — Memory and EDA leading — while HALO sat nearly flat on the month, confirming leadership is concentrated rather than broad. The vol complex reinforced this split: VXN and VVIX compressed sharply even as headline VIX ticked higher, and MOVE fell below 80, suggesting bond stress is contained and Nasdaq-centric positioning is being unwound rather than added. Today's pre-bell tape at 12:50 UTC shows all four US futures slightly positive, and European bourses added roughly 0.69% intraday at publish time, consistent with the prior session's constructive but narrow tone. The combination of four cointegration breaks, support-confluence patterns in defensive names, and the Rubin/HALO divergence points to a tape where macro breadth is thinner than headline index levels imply.
§14 — Watch next session
- Monitor whether VIX holds below 18.00 at the US cash open — a breach would contradict the VXN/VVIX compression signal seen yesterday.
- Watch Rubin Layer 3 (Memory & Packaging) weekly return: a reversal below +2% on the week would flag rotation back toward Layer 1 IP names.
- Track IBEX relative to DAX intraday: IBEX lagging at +0.13% vs DAX +0.69% at publish — a further underperformance below 0% would signal Southern European divergence widening.