Daily Pulse · · 08:30 NY · signal
Mixed / transitional
Index moves
| Index | 1D | 1W |
|---|---|---|
| Rubin 100 | +3.28% | -4.76% |
| HALO 100 | +2.06% | +0.62% |
| Euro-AI 50 | +3.33% | +4.13% |
| AW25 | — | +5.65% |
Pattern alerts
- PFE support-confluence WARNING
- MCD support-confluence WARNING
- NOC support-confluence WARNING
- UL support-confluence WARNING
- LMT support-confluence WARNING
Cointegration
0 active pairs, 6 breaks.
§1 — Lede
🟡 A sharply bifurcated tape on 21 May 2026: semiconductor architects printed strong daily gains while broad market futures and European indices retreated into the red.
§1.5 — Pre-market US (futures)
S&P (ES) -0.38% · Nasdaq (NQ) -0.57% · Dow (YM) -0.30% · Russell (RTY) -0.53% · as of 12:47 UTC
At 12:55 UTC, all four US futures pointed lower, with Nasdaq leading the decline at −0.57% and the Dow the most resilient at −0.30%.
§2 — Cross-asset (yesterday’s US close)
Gold $417.40 +1.43% · Bitcoin $77,875 +0.54% · TLT $83.91 +1.07%
Yesterday's US close showed a classic flight-to-quality alignment: GLD +1.43%, TLT +1.07%, and BTC a modest +0.54%. That combination — bonds and gold bid together — flagged defensive positioning entering the overnight session.
§2.5 — Europe midday (live, intraday)
DAX -0.63% · CAC -0.50% · Euro Stoxx 50 -0.49% · AEX -0.16% · IBEX -0.47% · as of 12:42 UTC
At 12:52 UTC, all five European indices were in the red; DAX led losses at −0.63%, while AEX was the relative holdout at −0.16%.
§3 — Risk & dollar (yesterday’s US close)
DXY (dollar, UUP proxy) $27.73 -0.22% · VIX (equity vol) 17.65 +1.20% · VVIX (vol of vol) 96.45 +1.94% · VXN (Nasdaq vol) 23.71 -1.58% · MOVE (bond vol) 81.53 -4.44%
Yesterday's close showed UUP (DXY proxy) slipping −0.22%, consistent with the gold/TLT bid. The vol complex delivered a notable split: VIX edged up +1.20% to 17.65 and VVIX rose +1.94% to 96.45 — above its ~80 baseline — while VXN actually fell −1.58% and MOVE compressed sharply −4.44%. Bond vol deflating while equity vol and vol-of-vol rose suggests residual rate-market relief coexisting with renewed equity uncertainty.
§4 — Pre-Asia-session ETF proxies (yesterday’s NY close)
Nikkei (EWJ) +1.02% · Hang Seng (EWH) +0.97% · Shanghai (MCHI) +0.07% · KOSPI (EWY) +3.50%
At yesterday's NY close, US-listed Asia proxies were broadly positive: EWY (KOSPI proxy) was the standout at +3.50%, EWJ +1.02% and EWH +0.97%; MCHI was nearly flat at +0.07%, signalling Shanghai underperformance relative to North Asian proxies.
§5 — US yesterday
SPX (SPY) $741.25 · d +1.02% · w -0.14% · m +5.28%
NDX (QQQ) $713.15 · d +1.66% · w -0.22% · m +10.68%
DJI (DIA) $500.24 · d +1.27% · w +0.62% · m +1.81%
RUT (IWM) $279.87 · d +2.52% · w -0.99% · m +1.95%
Yesterday's US session delivered broad gains: RUT led at +2.52%, NDX +1.66%, DJI +1.27%, and SPY +1.02%. On a monthly basis NDX is the clear leader at +10.68% versus RUT's +1.95%, pointing to continued mega-cap concentration.
§6 — S&P 500 sectors (yesterday’s close)
Top-3 (5d): Energy +3.77% · Financials +1.31% · ConsStaples +0.94%
Bottom-3 (5d): Materials -4.49% · Industrials -1.66% · ConsDisc -0.66%
Yesterday's session saw ConsDisc (+2.53%) and Tech (+2.25%) top the board; Energy (−2.43%), ConsStaples (−0.66%), and HealthCare (−0.13%) lagged, suggesting a growth-over-defensives rotation on the day.
§7 — Pre-Europe-session ETF proxies (yesterday’s NY close)
DAX (EWG) +2.00% · FTSE (EWU) +1.66% · CAC (EWQ) +2.41%
Yesterday's NY close had EWQ (CAC proxy) +2.41%, EWG +2.00%, EWU +1.66% — all reversed intraday today.
§8 — Reference portfolios
| Index | Day | Week | Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin 100 | +3.28% | -4.76% | +14.52% |
| HALO 100 | +2.06% | +0.62% | -2.48% |
| Euro-AI 50 | +3.33% | +4.13% | +9.80% |
| AW25 | — | +5.65% | +12.01% |
Rubin 100 and Euro-AI 50 both posted strong daily gains (+3.28% and +3.33% respectively) with robust monthly readings (+14.5% and +9.8%), while HALO 100 gained only +2.06% on the day and is down −2.48% on the month — a wide dispersion confirming a narrow, semiconductor-led tape rather than broad participation.
§9 — Generation phase
Layer 1 — Architects & IP w +1.22% · m +26.38%
Layer 2 — Manufacturing w -2.85% · m +9.51%
Layer 3 — Memory & Packaging w -6.62% · m +13.24%
Layer 4 — Substrates & Power w -3.98% · m +18.98%
Top sub-sectors (week): EDA & Chip IP +5.14% · Deposition, Etch & Process -0.82% · Architects (Chip Design) -1.25%
Lagging sub-sectors (week): Wafer Processing & Precision -15.46% · Photomasks & Mask Infrastructure -12.54% · Advanced Packaging & Bonding -10.64%
Layer 1 (Architects & IP) dominated at +5.41% on the day and +26.38% on the month; EDA & Chip IP led subsectors on the week (+5.14%). The bottom of the stack — Wafer Processing (−15.46% on the week), Photomasks (−12.54%), and Advanced Packaging (−10.64%) — signals that upstream IP is being re-rated while downstream process intensity is being sold.
§10 — Money Temperature
Composite 56 🟡 · Label Mixed / transitional · Instruments 8 contributing
The composite Money Temperature reads 56 (Mixed/Transitional), drawing on 8 instruments. The reading sits just above the neutral midpoint, consistent with a market that has bounced but not yet committed to a sustained risk-on regime.
§11 — Pattern Scanner
Active 28 signals · PFE 36 🟡 support-confluence · MCD 36 🟡 support-confluence · NOC 28 🟡 support-confluence · UL 26 🟡 support-confluence · LMT 25 🟡 support-confluence
With 28 active signals, the scanner's top five hits are all support-confluence patterns, four of which carry red-regime labels (MCD, NOC, UL, LMT). The dominance of defensive and staples-adjacent names at support — rather than breakouts — reflects a tape testing lows in second-order sectors even as semis advance.
§12 — Cointegration Lab
Active pairs 0 · Breaks 6
Zero active pairs and six recent breaks indicate structural pair dislocations across the monitored universe; the absence of re-entry signals suggests the cross-asset divergence is still widening rather than mean-reverting.
§13 — Cross-read
The 21 May session is presenting a textbook narrow-tape signal: yesterday's gold and TLT bid, combined with a VVIX above 96 and rising VIX, indicated defensive demand building even as headline US indices closed green. That defensiveness is now materialising in today's live data — European indices are uniformly lower and US futures are off across the board. The strength is concentrated in a single vertical: semiconductor architects (Layer 1 +5.41% daily, +26.38% monthly) are pulling Rubin and Euro-AI higher while HALO lags by more than 4 percentage points on the month. The cointegration break-count of six with zero re-entries, combined with a Money Temperature stuck at 56, suggests the pair dislocations and the regime uncertainty are unresolved. Bond vol collapsing (MOVE −4.44%) while equity vol-of-vol climbs (VVIX +1.94%) is the key divergence: rates markets are calmer, but equity option markets are pricing more uncertainty — a regime that historically resolves via a directional equity move, not a grind.
§14 — Watch next session
- S&P e-mini (ES=F): watch whether 7,400 holds as intraday support at the US cash open — a break below that level would extend yesterday's gold/TLT defensive signal into confirmed risk-off.
- Rubin Layer 1 vs. Layer 3 weekly spread: if Wafer Processing (−15.46% WTD) continues to widen against Architects, it signals the semi rally is IP-only and not broadening into a capex cycle.
- VVIX: a sustained print above 100 would confirm the equity option market is pricing a volatility event, not just a soft patch — watch at today's US close.