Daily Pulse · · 08:30 NY · signal
Risk-on rally
Index moves
| Index | 1D | 1W |
|---|---|---|
| Rubin 100 | -0.55% | -3.08% |
| HALO 100 | -0.28% | -1.23% |
| Euro-AI 50 | +0.76% | +2.11% |
| AW25 | — | +3.82% |
Pattern alerts
- PFE support-confluence NEUTRAL
- MCD support-confluence WARNING
- NOC support-confluence WARNING
- LMT support-confluence WARNING
- HD support-confluence WARNING
Cointegration
0 active pairs, 7 breaks.
§1 — Lede
🟡 A broadly risk-off session with cross-asset pressure masked by sharp dispersion across reference portfolios and sub-sector rotation.
§2 — Cross-asset regime
Gold $411.50 -1.66% · Bitcoin $76,564 -0.24% · TLT $83.02 -0.65%
GLD −1.66%, TLT −0.65%, and BTC −0.24% moved in tandem to the downside, a rare triple-leg decline that compresses the usual safe-haven diversification. The regime reads as broad de-risking rather than a clean rotation.
§3 — Risk & dollar
DXY (dollar, UUP proxy) $27.79 +0.32% · VIX (equity vol) 18.06 +1.35% · VVIX (vol of vol) 94.61 +3.76% · VXN (Nasdaq vol) 24.09 -0.50% · MOVE (bond vol) 85.32 -0.87%
UUP +0.32% firms the dollar modestly while VIX +1.35% nudges higher. VVIX +3.76% — well above its ~80 baseline — signals option markets are pricing rising uncertainty about future vol. VXN −0.50% diverges from VIX (equity vol rising, Nasdaq vol falling), and MOVE −0.87% eases bond vol, leaving a split between equity nervousness and bond calm.
§4 — Asia overnight
Nikkei (EWJ) -0.69% · Hang Seng (EWH) -1.34% · Shanghai (MCHI) +0.39% · KOSPI (EWY) -1.18%
Hang Seng proxy −1.34% and KOSPI −1.18% led regional weakness; Nikkei proxy −0.69% followed. Shanghai/China (MCHI) +0.39% was the sole positive outlier, suggesting divergent mainland flows.
§5 — US yesterday
SPX (SPY) $733.73 · d -0.67% · w -0.60% · m +3.53%
NDX (QQQ) $701.53 · d -0.62% · w -0.81% · m +8.46%
DJI (DIA) $493.98 · d -0.61% · w -0.79% · m -0.07%
RUT (IWM) $273.00 · d -1.08% · w -3.39% · m -1.57%
All four US indices declined, with RUT −1.08% (week: −3.39%) the clear laggard. NDX month +8.46% retains the best monthly momentum, but SPX, DJI, and RUT month prints show a widening divergence between large-cap tech and everything else.
§6 — S&P 500 sectors
Top-3 (5d): Energy +6.46% · ConsStaples +1.95% · HealthCare +1.01%
Bottom-3 (5d): Materials -5.95% · Industrials -3.22% · ConsDisc -2.76%
Energy +1.17% (week +6.46%) and HealthCare +1.10% led; Materials −2.35% (week −5.95%) and Financials −1.24% dragged, with ConsDisc and Industrials also notably weak on the week.
§7 — Europe today
DAX (EWG) -0.71% · FTSE (EWU) -0.73% · CAC (EWQ) -0.91%
DAX, FTSE, and CAC proxies all fell ~0.71–0.91%, no regional divergence.
§8 — Reference portfolios
| Index | Day | Week | Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin 100 | -0.55% | -3.08% | +13.92% |
| HALO 100 | -0.28% | -1.23% | -4.55% |
| Euro-AI 50 | +0.76% | +2.11% | +6.14% |
| AW25 | — | +3.82% | +10.98% |
Rubin 100 +13.92% month vs. HALO 100 −4.55% month is an 18-point monthly gap — extreme dispersion. Euro-AI 50 +6.14% month and Agentic Winners 25">AW25 +10.98% month cluster closer to Rubin, leaving HALO as the clear laggard and confirming a narrow, AI-infrastructure-led tape.
§9 — Generation phase
Layer 1 — Architects & IP w -1.67% · m +22.65%
Layer 2 — Manufacturing w -1.55% · m +8.23%
Layer 3 — Memory & Packaging w -3.20% · m +15.66%
Layer 4 — Substrates & Power w -3.91% · m +17.47%
Top sub-sectors (week): Wafer Processing & Precision +4.34% · EDA & Chip IP +0.67% · Power Semiconductors +0.49%
Lagging sub-sectors (week): Photomasks & Mask Infrastructure -14.21% · Thermal Management -7.64% · Grid & Power Infrastructure -7.21%
Layer 1 (Architects & IP) +22.65% month leads all layers and was the only layer positive on the day (+0.24%). Wafer Processing (+4.34% week) and Power Semiconductors (+0.49% week) hold up; Photomasks −14.21% week is the sharp sub-sector break.
§10 — Money Temperature
Composite 54 🟡 · Label Risk-on rally · Instruments 8 contributing
Composite at 54 (label: Risk-on rally) sits just above neutral. The reading conflicts with the session's broad selling — the composite likely reflects the strong monthly momentum in AI infrastructure names rather than today's flow.
§11 — Pattern Scanner
Active 28 signals · PFE 46 🟡 support-confluence · MCD 36 🟡 support-confluence · NOC 31 🟡 support-confluence · LMT 26 🟡 support-confluence · HD 26 🟡 support-confluence
28 active signals, dominated by support-confluence patterns. PFE leads at 46% confidence (🟡); MCD, NOC, LMT, HD all cluster at 🔴 regime — defensive and consumer names testing support in a deteriorating tape.
§12 — Cointegration Lab
Active pairs 0 · Breaks 7
Zero active pairs with 7 breaks registered — an elevated break count against no active pairs indicates pair structures are dissolving faster than new stable relationships form, consistent with dispersed, regime-uncertain conditions.
§13 — Cross-read
Today's session is best read as a selective de-risking within an otherwise AI-infrastructure-anchored month. The triple decline in gold, bonds, and crypto removes the usual hedge buffer, while VVIX spiking above 94 against a relatively contained VIX (18) and a falling MOVE tells a specific story: equity option markets are nervous about volatility volatility, but bond and Nasdaq-specific vol have not yet confirmed systemic stress. The 18-point monthly gap between Rubin (+13.9%) and HALO (−4.6%) is the structural signal — capital is concentrated in the semiconductor stack, not dispersed. The photomask sub-sector collapse (−14.2% week) alongside 7 cointegration breaks suggests the AI infrastructure trade is beginning to fragment internally even as headline indices for Rubin hold. Money Temperature at 54 may be a lagging read.
§14 — Watch next session
- VVIX: if it closes above 100, option market stress is escalating beyond the current contained VIX level.
- Rubin Layer 1 (Architects & IP): watch whether it holds positive day-over-day; a turn negative would signal the last standing pillar weakening.
- Photomask sub-sector (CL-PHOTOMASK-EW): a further weekly decline past −15% would widen the internal AI infrastructure fracture.